Wednesday, 1 April 2009

Looking into the Futures

With the third and final Derby Futures pool opening tomorrow, the field is starting to shape up.

Most interestingly, Dunkirk is listed with a morning line of 8-1 (Quality Road is the favorite at 6-1) even though it’s questionable that he’ll even start. So far I haven’t heard anything about his connections resorting to desperate measures (by which I mean the Lexington or Derby Trial) and he is likely to sink too low on the Graded earnings list over the next two weekends. Not to mention that the running style he’s shown so far is ill-suited for the Derby.

Another odd choice is Theregoesjojo at 20-1, for a horse that is currently about 20k behind even being on the bubble, not to mention being beaten decisively by direct contenders in his last two starts. Am I missing something here?

The value bet may be 30-1 Desert Party, who has a lot of excuses for his runner-up performance in the UAE Derby. Like Dunkirk, he may have gotten a lot out of this defeat. Unlike Dunkirk, it didn't risk his Derby spot.

is listed in the morning line as 50-1, but considering how many tipsters have professed confidence in his chances those odds will probably be much lower. In my opinion, if his connections decide to start (which they likely will), they’ll do so for no other reason than his starting purse. The Kempton field he topped was good enough for what that race was, a Listed event, but as for the quality of his opposition, let me just share that my main motivation for betting him in that race was his promising fifth place in last year’s Timeform Million, a race that produced quality all the way to at least 8th place. I’m also not sold on his dirt credentials, it’s probably not very encouraging that his connections chose to run his final prep over the Polytrack. Maybe for some people it’s just wishful thinking, seeing as Mafaaz is already being built up as a posterchild for drug-free racing.

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