Saturday, 25 April 2009

HANA Predictions 09-04-25

Shifting this week’s HANA race, today’s sixth at Hawthorne, from Turf Paradise was about the best thing that could happen to me.

Not that I don't like TuP (although it is embarrassing for a track with this name to feature the world’s worst "turf" course, which, judging from the amount of dust, doesn't resemble anything close to grass), but Hawthorne is a track that meets HANA's pro-horseplayer spirit. Livestreams, a nice race preview show and free replays make this the best track for overseas bettors outside of CA, Lexington and Oceanport, NJ.

This marks the first time I have race replays (crucial to my handicapping routine) available for a HANA race, so it's not entirely a sympathy bet. The race is wide open and of very good quality for this level, which promises some real action in the exotics.

Notes on today’s runners:

#1 Lose None – managed to find trouble in almost every start and could well encounter some adversity here; don’t think she’s worth it at 4/1, but has every chance if given a clean trip.

#2 Miss Fontana – first start this season and will need improvement on her speed, but at 10/1 is worth some consideration; 31% ROI stable off layoff.

#3 Tessies Tilbury – fresh horse and looks perfectly primed for this, but seems to have profitted from near-perfect trips in both starts and might be looking at a speed battle here.

#4 B N Graced N Glory – impressive back-to-back wins and a 96 Beyer last time out, but both performances on the slop and hasn’t shown anything similar under different conditions in 9 other starts; I have reservations about that Beyer, too. Finished well beaten coming off her previous two outstanding performances in only attempt at stakes level (Jan17, TP, 6f).

#5 Fashionable Lady – shown promise, but would have to step up in class again; will likely have to go wide this time and may lack speed .

#6 Cart’s Lisa – gamely three times in a row battling a moderate lead from perfect gate position; will find the scenario tougher this time and at 5/1 is a very good throwout.

#7 Bow Tie Pasta – two very good forms in sprints and two lackluster ones in two-bend races; has always run much better in faster races and this one figures to be very fast.

#9 Cumulonimble – improved last time setting the pace but doesn’t have the early speed to overcome her outside post.

#10 Happy Henrietta – starts into her sophomore campaign and returns to a sprint; outside gate shouldn’t be that much of a problem but 9/2 just isn’t a reasonable prize.

#8, #11 – others seem more likely.

Wouldn’t pick a specific one, but with several good throwouts, spreading some in the exacta or trifecta pools is the way to go.

Best Bets:
Small stacks can single out #2 for a quality Win bet if available from 8/1 upwards. The best bet is probably a weighted exacta. I'll wait for defections, race preview and post parade to decide how to weight my wager exactly, but my A-list includes numbers #1, 2 and 7 with 3, 4 and 10 worth consideration.

No comments:

Post a Comment