Tuesday, 7 April 2009

HANA Pick 3 Predictions

Don’t forget to bet the HANA Pick 3 today. And thanks to everyone involved for all the free handicapping tools provided.

My predictions can be found below. Keep in mind that I’m new to betting Tampa, which somewhat screws up my usual handicapping method, especially regarding the horsemen angles.

Race 6:
On recent form, it’s hard not to like #2 Silver Truth, even though starting for the 8th time since December (and getting claimed twice in the process) she may bounce at some point. As a safety net #4 Number Uno Lady may be a good choice. She switches to a stable with solid zeros in the wins columns, but three runner-up performances in as many starts. Doesn’t look like they send out horses without a chance and Centeno aboard again shows some confidence too. #7 Celebration Dance’s last two are promising, but the horse has bounced three times before on third after layoff.
The horse that befuddles me is #6 My Gemsa Gem, who is moving up in class from four races in which her closest was 13 lenghts behind the winner, finishing 7th. The problem is that her trainer seems to have a bit of success with horses moving up and I don’t see any reason why he should have moved her if he doesn’t feel confident.

Race 7:
Not overly confident in anyone, but #2, 3 and 11(AE) should be the creme of the field. Doubts mainly because I have no idea why Homeister sits on the second O’Connell entry, #10, instead of the more appealing #3. #10 has her second start after a long layoff, but has struggled against much weaker as a 3yo.

Race 8:
#4 Williamsburg doesn’t look like it on paper, but in Tampa you just can't ignore the ridiculously high percentages of Ness and Ziadie. If playing a bigger ticket, you should consider adding him as a safety measure. #1, 3 and 6 figure to be the class of the field, with #1 African Angel probably the least questionable choice (I wouldn’t take him for 5/2, but in a Pick 3 he might be worth it). Like #3 See I A, this might be a case of forcing a win during a bad streak, both horses move down in class despite not running catastrophic lately, and #3 might get the trip he's been waiting for.

Small Bet: 2 with 2,3,(11) with 1,3
Broadband: 2,4,6 with 2,3,10,(11) with 1,3,4,6

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