Tuesday, 14 April 2009

HANA Pool Predictions

Tonight’s HANA pool (the Exacta in race 3 at Mountaineer) perfectly accommodates all of my betting weaknesses. It’s a bottom-feeder claimer at a bottom-feeder racetrack, I'm unfamiliar with most of the horsemen and all of the horses (plus I suck at those pinball PP’s). It’s a dirt dash, while what little expertise I have is mostly on two and three-turn races, preferably on the turf. Worst of all, in the interest of the greater good I’ll have to rest my longstanding policy of boycotting MTR tracks. I’m perfectly willing to do so though, HANA simply is an admirable effort that not only every serious horseplayer but everyone with a passion for racing should want to be a successful one. In the spirit of these thoughts, let me share my very uneducated guess on tonight’s exacta.

The favorite, #3 Enter The Lion, may have a reasonable chance to win but at his ML of 5/2 just isn't worth it even in an exacta. He steadily dropped in class from Alw25k since last August. Returning to a sprint after three sub-par mile performances looks like a very good decision, but the horse's last efforts are meager and have gone downhill as steep as the class he’s trying. It might be a questionable approach to these kinds of races, but I like to see a hint of form somewhere. My first choice for the winner would be #7 Kris’s Honor, a highly consistent sprinter who appears to be in great shape. The horse has shown promise in his first two attempts at this level and should at least hit the exacta this time. My second choice would be #8 Hey Reemer, who looks to be in the right spot here and should take kindly to switching back from Turfway's polytrack to Mountaineer's dirt, where his better forms come from. As an ExactaBox, those two look worth the cost.

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