Enter the Geldings: From MTB to Zayat

At the end of the day, Mine That Bird co-owner Mark Allen took a hiding. Well, not a hiding, but a PR release in which he contradicted everything we already know has happened and still found the time to come across as the stereotypical hillbilly millionaire. He might have been surprised how much harder behind-the-scenes fixing is in the Triple Crown as compared to what he’s accustomed to from Alaska.

Even so, Borderland Mark couldn’t help slipping in a cheap shot, mentioning that he doesn’t believe in running a filly against the boys at this stage. One could go into a lenghty off-the-racing-topic discussion about judging others based on one’s belief rather than reason here, but let’s just say he also is a man who calls Steve Asmussen “a great trainer” and believes that Mike Smith has “got some Cowboy in him”, which he knows because he’s seen Smith’s boots.

Allen thus accomplished the challenging feat to out-dumb Pioneerof The Nile's owner Ahmed Zayat, who earlier in the day had explained to the world his theory that it’s just unfair for someone else to have a better horse, that it’s not okay for a new owner to change the direction of their horse’s campaign, that horses shouldn’t skip the the Derby to run in the Preakness (which of course is precisely what his placeholder horses would have done), repeated the notion that the Triple Crown was for stallion prospects (such as MTB?) and finished it all off by working in the scare card (“Two weeks for a filly? Does our sport need another Eight Belles”). Now that’s true, our sport could use another Eight Belles incident about as much as the one Ahmed Zayat it’s already stuck with.

What’s most stunning about this affair is the chutzpah by which two millionaire owners not only regard a Triple Crown race as somehow belonging to them (“I think this match is between us, it's a rivalry” – Mark Allen according to Ahmed Zayat) but also conspire to keep a horse they both regard as superior out of the race, then defend it with what can only be described as a public relations nightmare at the expense of the sport.

All this chickening-from-the-chick biz is especially remarkable and foolish because if there’s one race Rachel Alexandra looks vulnerable in, it’s the Preakness. The filly has been re-directed to this race a mere less than ten days before post time, her previous owners obviously never entertained the idea, whereas it must have been lingering in the back of any Derby owner’s or trainer’s mind to some degree. Plus she has changed stables in between, adding an extra stress factor that should more than offset any advantage she may have gained by not running the Derby. If you can't see a chance to beat her in Baltimore, where are you gonna hide the rest of the year?

Between Zayat, Allan and Mine That Bird, the gelding is the only one who's got some balls.

HANA Predictions 09-05-09

More a reminder than a true attempt at predicting the outcome:

Tonight’s Pool Party, Race 6 at Prairie Meadows, brings the HANA train back to the netherlands of American racing (no offense intended; being from East Germany, I don’t share the West German love-hate relationship with our oranje neighbors). This will be my first ever bet at PrM. In fact, I wasn’t even aware one of my ADW’s carried the track until I checked last night. I didn’t spend much time handicapping this (without replays or knowledge about track and horsemen) and felt a little lost with this Clm7,5K for 10K, but here it is for the sake of it:

#1 Courtney J: weird improvement in her speed figure despite allegedly going 6 wide last start while returning to this track (again, I don’t have the replays); has repeatedly been competitive here in roughly comparable class last year.

#2 T C’s Sweetie: returns to track, re-united with last winning jock, won Alw races here last year and regularly sports SF’s beyond today’s competition, but is the only one off a layoff (since January); switches to a high-percentage stable that drops with first-out winners but rises just as much in first-out placed starters, suggesting they don’t send out horses for a prep.

#3 Ekberg: returning form Oaklawn, has won her last two starts at this track; second off layoff since last August, could go either way.

Of the rest, #5 and #6 are a little intriguing, while #8 is the only one showing any consistency SF-wise, but for 7/2 I wouldn’t take my chances with her.

Summary: For what it’s worth, I’ll go with #2 for a Win from 3-1 upwards, #1,3 and 8 might be the best considerations for the Exacta.

Could Jess Be Our Savior?

The racing world suddenly looks several shades brighter since Jess Jackson’s Stonestreet Stables, no doubt inspired by my repeated whining about the path lined out for her, purchased Rachel Alexandra. And things got even better when today it was announced that the standout filly will be pointed to the Preakness next, with Calvin Borel aboard. According to Jackson, Borel’s decision “came down to the facts that he knows and loves this horse, that he knows how to get the most from her and he knows how to win”. That he knows she’s the better horse compared to the Derby winner might have been a factor too.

Like most people, I’m not exactly euphoric about seeing great horses in the care of Steve Asmussen, but having this horse owned by Stonestreet is about the best thing that could happen to the sport. RA was looking to be a lost opportunity for racing, now she could become the sport’s best (and fastest) PR campaign.

With Curlin, Jackson gave the racing world an almost forgotten sensation – the sight of a Horse of the Year being campaigned like a Champion. Curlin took on all comers in Dubai, California, Kentucky and New York. He won a lot and lost a few, but his defeats came because Stonestreet didn’t duck a challenge and never pampered their horse by entering races they couldn’t lose. I loved how Jackson pointed his horse to challenge the world’s best turf horses in the Arc. It ultimately turned out Curlin didn’t like the turf, but even so it assured that fans got an exciting season out of the HOTY. Most owners would have rushed him off to stud or, like Ghostzapper, campaigned him in races tilted towards his interests, all the while patting themselves on their back for how great a gesture it was to show up at all. I will always take a horse that lost a couple of big challenges over one that avoided them in the first place. If this decade has produced one true Champion, Curlin was that.

I also loved how Jackson challenged Big Brown to a pre-BC match, first in the Woodward, then in the JC Gold Cup. Big Brown’s owners, IEAH, on the other hand weren’t that sporting. Their attitude is typical for most of today’s big-time owners: seeing a great challenge as nothing more than a great risk to their horse’s value at stud. As long as the breeding industry is the tail wagging the dog, this strategy makes sense. After all, Big Brown was syndicated for over $50 million, amazing for a horse that battled soundness issues all through its career.

Fans of the sport can only hope for owners who put sportsmanship first and financial considerations second. Right now, no major owner represents that spirit better than Jess Jackson.

So There’s That Birdstone Gelding

I’m still recuperating from last Saturday’s Derby. I could have kicked myself that night for not placing any kind of crap shot bet on Mine That Bird after declaring the Derby a “Borel race”, strongly assuming that the rail would once again be wide open for the final turn and learning that there was a rail bias at Louisville. This first rush of frustration has waned by now, and made room for the realization that, really, I didn’t do anything wrong. In fact I layed off any exotics (thanks CD for being so arrogant as to require a $2-minimum on Exactas in a 19-horse field, you sure helped) and just lost $8 on four crappy sympathy bets (FF, DP, PoTN for a win at nice betfair odds; Papa Clem for a Show); could have been worse.

So MTB was a champion in Canada. He achieved it by winning four in row, three of them stakes races. But the best he did up Nord was a G3, and he didn’t win by more than two lenghts in any of these races. Then came a miserable BC and two now-famous mediocre performances in his only dirt starts at a backwater racetrack.

So he didn’t look quite that enchanting when suffering from bad moves at Sunland. I didn’t watch those races and likely wouldn’t have even if I had the race replays available. That‘s because even if they had been horrible trips he still should have distanced his opposition to figure as a Derby candidate. He moved up 24 points from his Sunland Derby Beyer, although in light of my last post I can’t help noticing how much the BRIS speed rating kicked the DRF’s butt (they had MTB rated at 88 for the Sunland Derby, and consistently about 10 points higher than the DRF). Pioneerof The Nile meanwhile was impressive in finishing second after the predictable wide trip. Not that I want to blame Garrett Gomez, who did the best he could with trainers’ orders to stalk but stay clear of kickback, which is a surefire way to make your Derby an 11-furlong race. Friesan Fire is excused because of his early accident.

So MTB was lucky in several ways on Saturday, but that doesn’t mean he’s a fluke. His rail move was thoroughly impressive and there’s no denying he did step up several levels from all of his previous attempts, which makes him a conspiracy theorists wet dream, but also American racing’s best story in years. I don’t expect him to be victorious at Pimlico, but I wouldn’t be shocked (again) either.

A Bogus Beyer

Mine That Bird got a Beyer of 105 for his upset win in the Derby. That's four less than Big Brown, five more than Giacomo. Is it enough to win the Preakness? Let's skip this question and concentrate on a more fundamental one: Why would you assume he ran a 105?

Determining a speed figure is a tricky and partially subjective task under any circumstances, and the certainty with which the DRF is advertising and comparing them may sell their paper, but is way overblown. The fact that BSF's can frequently be questionable, misleading or plain false is something Andy Beyer has acknowledged himself, although you wouldn't think so from the way he sometimes touts his system. But assessing one for a race like yesterday’s Derby comes down to an exercise in guesswork rather than science. Anybody who has ever looked up the process of determining a Beyer (basically by relating the times of the day’s card, or parts of the card, to expected times) should realize immediately that the Derby had to be practically rated against itself, with few clues provided.

Gaps between races on Derby Day were just short of one hour, and track maintenance was done between races, with officials specifically aiming to make the track faster. The last race before the Derby was on the turf, and the only other two-turn dirt races on the card had been run more than six hours earlier under very different track conditions. Which means the earlier dirt races cannot safely be used as a comparison. As with any such procedure, speed figures get ever more questionable the smaller the sample you draw from is (a fact that sometimes renders BSF's from racedays with sudden changes in weather essentially meaningless).

The only other race to compare the Derby to was the 13th, a 7f allowance for 3yo fillies won wire-to-wire by the favorite, who ran the whole race on what seemed to be a highly favorable rail. Results behind her didn’t match well with previous forms. Previous numbers are even less helpful for the Derby itself, as freaky trips, surprise performances and added distance necessarily result in a contradictory outcome.

The assessor, and I don’t know who it was in this case, had to completely turn the process on its head. Judging from only two races (both of them 3yo races with somewhat odd results) he can’t have done anything more than an educated guess on how fast the top finishers may have run, then deduct from there. Mine That Bird’s 105 could be correct, it could just as well be off by 5 points in either direction. Under such circumstances, a speed figure is a guess, not a handicapping tool. This isn't news, but it’s nonetheless an important fact that many racing fans too often forget about.

UPDATE: Steve Crist has written a piece on his DRF blog in which he provides a brief explanation of the methodology used to come up with the 105. It's definitely worth reading, but I don't think it devalues my arguments.

Great Oaks to Little Acorns Spells Missed Opportunity for Racing

"Great oaks from little acorns grow" is the phrase the Acorn Stakes have been named after, a reference to the race's status as a prep for the CCA Oaks, which were traditionally considered the real Oaks race of America. According to an article by Paul Moran, that's the road that yesterday's phenomenal Kentucky Oaks victress Rachel Alexandra will take. The race's name thus takes on a different but very symbolic meaning; Rachel Alexandra will go from Oaks glory to a race in which she can't win anything but money.

From there her connections will likely take the route Moran has outlined in an earlier article. They might start her in the Mother Goose, CCA Oaks and Alabama, then run a BC prep against older fillies, then the BC Distaff, where if everything goes right (and it so often doesn't) we may just see a duel against Zenyatta, last year's pampered filly sensation. "What is to be gained, actually, by running her against males?", Moran asks. How about public interest, in and outside the shrinking pond of racing enthusiasts?

Racing insiders and fans frequently bemoan the fact that the mainstream media only focuses on the negative stories that racing creates, but this case shows one aspect that they continue to ignore: racing doesn't produce many positive stories, even when it could.

Realistically, Rachel Alexandra will not always have such tremendous form, such a favorable trip or such favorable conditions, but under any conditions she is superior enough to all other fillies on the East Coast to discourage any meaningful opposition. Unless something goes wrong (a possibility that always exists) one of the greatest fillies in decades will cruise home in the Acorn, then beat virtually no opposition in the Mother Goose, CCA, Alabama and her BC prep.

Do you think any major newspaper will care, or that any TV station would spend hours of Saturday afternoon broadcasting on races about as engaging as "John Kerry Comedy Hour" when they have dozens of other sporting events with more appeal to choose from? You know why that Seabiscuit v War Admiral match race captured the nation? It's because people wondered who would actually win! I doubt we would have seen a movie about it had Seabiscuit run some mid-level claimer into the ground that afternoon at Pimlico. The lure of great sporting events is the lure of a great challenge, not the repeated thrashing of your overmatched opposition, no matter how huge a feat it may be in its own right.

Face it, if Rachel Alexandra wins the schedule outlined above by an average of eight lenghts, the mainstream media won't care. That is unless she gets injured somewhere along the way, in which case she might be a negative story. In both cases, racing loses. Is it really so much asked that a filly that has proven vastly superior to her crop at least tries the Belmont instead of the Acorn and Mother Goose?

"We still don’t know how good she is", trainer Hal Wiggins says. One thing is for certain: they won't find out in the Acorn.

See You in Baltimore, Rachel!

The morning after Rachel Alexandra pulled off what might be the most impressive Kentucky Oaks win in history, the racing world is glowing in appraisal, with Railbird going so far as to compare the feat to the great Regret's of 1915.

Such comparison, however, misses the big difference. Regret won the Derby, Rachel Alexandra took off after a textbook trip to stun an Oaks crop we already knew she was superior to, although few had expected her to be that overwhelming. Others have pointed out that it would likely be unfair to criticize her connections for not running her in the Derby, but they won't have any excuse from here on. If wherever her career takes her next is anything but a Triple Crown race, the filly might be peerless among her sex, but her connections will have denied her a chance to show how great she really is. This filly can win against any opponent and should be campaigned that way.

In a related story, kudos again to last year's Eclipse voters. You decided against hyped supertalent Zenyatta for HOTY, figuring she really hasn't proven herself to be a Champion, despite her connections having every chance to do so. This weekend should have silenced your critics. True Champions don't hide from an opposition several levels below their class just because the track isn't absolutely perfect for them. Sorry, but if you don't have enough confidence in your horse to overcome a slightly off track against such opposition, I'm guessing we'll see another season of statistical stardom and all-female romps out of a horse that could have the talent to become an American Zarkava and help the sport overcome some of those stupid prejudices about fillies running against colts.