HANA Predictions 09-06-13

After I had to skip the last installment of HANA’s Pool Parties, I’m back for this one. There are a lot of nice things to say about Monmouth, but other bloggers have done so in abundance over the last couple of weeks. I'm pretty sure none of those glowing reviews was triggered by anything but honest opinion, nevertheless it does leave a sour taste to read a glowing review of a day at the track, then see a Monmouth ad an inch to the left. In light of recent discussion, I’m not sure if the few bucks the TBA makes by selling ad space are really worth the cost.

My favorite TBA ad, btw, seems to have disappeared recently: the one for Mark Ripple’s ÜberHorse.com (“Handicapping the Wall Street way”). I’m pretty sure the guy regrets that subtitle by now (I mean, the going broke part is easy, just not sure if begging for bailout money will work as well for horseplayers as it did for Goldman Sachs).

Back to the issue at hand: tomorrow’s Race 9 from Monmouth, the cleverly-named Monmouth Stakes, is a great choice. It’s 9 furlongs over the turf at Monmouth, which means you can almost completely discount starting positions 7 and higher. Moreover, there are a number of starters that seem to use this race as a mere stopover on the UN Hcap trail. Among those are #4, 5 and 7. I don’t think Fearless Eagle and Banrock (whose stakes wins have come exclusively in NY statebred turf races) will be a factor. Same goes for Richard’s Kid, who is obviously hoping for this race to be taken off-the-turf, but even then he would need the added assistance of several scratches. Which leaves the following:

#1 Proudinsky – pretty much every conceivable angle points to this horse, plus the race could set up nicely for him; he isn’t a world-beater, but here he looks in the right place at the right time

#4 Grand Couturier – I love the way this horse is campaigned, and it paid off last season with two G1 wins; trainer has given him a prep race the last two years though, and this almost certainly is one too; may be good enough to hit the board on class alone, but he most certainly will be an underlay

#5 Strike A Deal – bit of a sucker horse, plus he is one of several who seem to need a longer distance; nevertheless, shouldn’t be overlooked here

#6 Buddy’s Humor – would have to step up some from his Elkhorn performance, but has shown he can live with Presious Passion opening up (i.e. doesn’t absolutely need the lead); seems to be in the right spot

#7 Presious Passion – really like this horse, but I doubt his running-style is fitting here, especially from this post

A more detailed analysis can be found on the Monmouth Park blog.

Summary:
With question marks surrounding most of the big names, this race should be Proudinsky’s for the taking. I see Buddy’s Humor’s as the only real threat.

Best Bets:
A bit risky to throw out what may be the two best horses in this field (#4 and 7), but all the more rewarding if it works. I’ll wait to see how my candidates look in the post parade before settling on a bet, but a Win bet on #1 Proudinsky and an Exacta with him on top and a combination of #5 and 6 looks most likely.

Notice:
This will be the last installment of my HANA Predictions. Starting this segment, my goal wasn’t to show off my handicapping skills (I’m perfectly aware there are far better guys and gals out there), but to spread the word about HANA’s Pool Parties. I think they’ve reached everyone you can reach via the blogosphere by now. Also, not surprisingly, readership numbers for this feature have been extremely poor. If you’ve reached here: congrats! You’ve hit the board. If you haven’t, well, that’s my point.

Result:
Looked good at the top of the stretch with Proudinsky taking the lead and Buddy's Humor charging for second, but Proudinsky left too much energy when pulling to catch Presious Passion over the first five furlongs and faded a bit at the end. Clear-cut handicapping error on my side for underestimating this factor. Congratulations to Elvis Trujillo, whose ride on Presious Passion was one of the best jockey performances I've ever seen on a front-runner. After going clear in the early stages, Trujillo gave his horse a breezer through the final turn and conserved enough energy to come back in the stretch. Perfection!

HANA Predictions 09-05-23

Canterbury Park is one of those tracks that I would really love if they ran once a week, instead of four times. Other than that, it’s a reasonably nice track, and one of those that offer free streaming and race replays (always a huge plus). It’s also home to today’s HANA pool party, which will take place in the 8th race:

#1 Darby Lee – Jamie Ness horse that shows no other turf forms on her pp sheet and I initially didn’t like the added distance, but I found some ancient history replays for her turf starts at this track (1 1/16 miles), where she showed a nice finish; had a great winter at Tampa and is worth some thought in this company, although her speed is definitely limited

#2 Jody’s Included – rapidly slipping down the Claiming ranks, as well as the track hierarchy, but at least she didn’t seem to get worse with every start, and a repeat of the TuP form might be enough to be a contender, especially if she gets into the race a little earlier this time; no idea how to rate the stable change or the meager last workouts

#3 Candiquik - warrants attention for the exotics on jockey and trainer angles alone; second off a very long layoff, and on last year’s forms has a chance; seems to need a slower pace and there’s no speedster in the field; switch to turf and the added distance both are concerns, so is the fact that she hasn’t run a decent SF in 10 months despite hugging the rail on most attempts

#4 Lil Crafty – ouch! to those speed figs, let alone stable stats

#5 Devil Not Me – let’s just hope she stays healthy

#6 Fancy N Quick – TuP transfer has by far the best recent speed in this field; constantly competitive in comparable class; the big question is why she has such a low-percentage jockey

#7 Play N Fair – Two starts last June are the only two in 18 months and horrible stats all around combine to make this a throwout

#8 Call Her Broke – would have to step up a lot from her Fonner performances; distance and turf look good, but I wouldn’t take her at 6/1; angles don’t look that good on closer inspection

#9 Rossiya – this one obviously likes turf miles, but it’s a guess if this is a prep start (no official workouts since May 3, are you kidding me?)

#10 Elegant Star – Jamie Ness has cooled down a little lately (gee, wonder if it has anything to do with his little “unmarked bottle” mishap) and this one wasn’t even particularly convincing before Jamie’s labeling malfunction, especially SF-wise

#11 Deb Doright – has indeed done alright at TuP, where she has run consistently high SF’s; on the other hand Eikleberry found a way to go the extra furlong on her in almost every attempt, so I shudder to think what he’ll do from the outside gate; was the favorite four times in last six starts and won only one, plus I don’t think the stable change will help

Summary:

To tell you the truth I’d never play this race if it wasn’t the HANA pool. If taken off the turf, it’ll be interesting to see how this no-frontrunner race develops on a frontrunners’ track. There are just too many questions and maybes to make a compelling argument for the exotics. If the horses look right in the paddock, the best Win selections may be #6 (8/1 ML) and #9 (10/1). Of the favorites, only #1 might be worth the cost, but I don’t think I’ll bet her.

In other news:

Props to Railbird for finding these two articles on Rachel Alexandra’s victory, the first a hilarious one from The Onion, the second one calling racing “one of the last strongholds of entrenched testosterone”. Yeah, it really is just us, Destruction Derby and those underground manatee clubbing tournaments that I visit every Thurs... I’ve said too much.

Result:

Ended up with a single bet on #11 Deb Doright after this race was taken off the turf (I liked her visual improvement when switching to dirt in her last race). Always nice to to bet on an outside post on a track you don’t know just to find out that they’re starting right into the first turn. Great ride this time from Eikleberry, but he still couldn’t prevent her from going 100 extra yards. In the end #1 edged my horse out, #2 was third (wonder why?).

Borderline unsportsmanlike conduct to start races from this position anyway, although it’s just as questionable that American tracks take races off the turf everytime two or three drops have fallen over the last month.

Fixing A Bet

Within a couple of days, two more tote incidents have further eroded the confidence of horseplayers. One, at Hollywood Park, has already been confirmed to be worthy of further investigation (although nothing so far indicates malicious intent), while little is known about a second one, at Penn National.

At California, the Autotote system failed again. We don’t know exactly what happened at Penn National, where pools were refunded for one race, and a Paceadvantage.com forum contributor reports suspicious late developments in the Exacta pool. Penn National switched from Autotote to United Tote a few years ago.

One interesting sidenote is that both incidents have come to the public’s attention via HANA, which wasn’t meant to be a watchdog site, but seems to have gained weight in a direction they might be surprised by themselves.

California, despite various bad experiences in the past, continues to use the questionable services of Autotote, a company involved in virtually all prominent past-post betting incidents in recent history. Autotote rebranded as Scientific Games after the Pick-Six scandal a few years back, but its original name (which literally means Car Deaths in German) had a much more fitting quality: the company is a wreck. Which begs two questions: a) is Autotote just incompetent or are they "incompetent" for a reason? and b) how is it that so many tracks still work with them instead of the other, better, tote operators around?

While I call the attention of federal authorities to the first question, it’s the second one that specifically interests me as a horseplayer and fan of the sport.

HANA Predictions 09-05-09

More a reminder than a true attempt at predicting the outcome:

Tonight’s Pool Party, Race 6 at Prairie Meadows, brings the HANA train back to the netherlands of American racing (no offense intended; being from East Germany, I don’t share the West German love-hate relationship with our oranje neighbors). This will be my first ever bet at PrM. In fact, I wasn’t even aware one of my ADW’s carried the track until I checked last night. I didn’t spend much time handicapping this (without replays or knowledge about track and horsemen) and felt a little lost with this Clm7,5K for 10K, but here it is for the sake of it:

#1 Courtney J: weird improvement in her speed figure despite allegedly going 6 wide last start while returning to this track (again, I don’t have the replays); has repeatedly been competitive here in roughly comparable class last year.

#2 T C’s Sweetie: returns to track, re-united with last winning jock, won Alw races here last year and regularly sports SF’s beyond today’s competition, but is the only one off a layoff (since January); switches to a high-percentage stable that drops with first-out winners but rises just as much in first-out placed starters, suggesting they don’t send out horses for a prep.

#3 Ekberg: returning form Oaklawn, has won her last two starts at this track; second off layoff since last August, could go either way.

Of the rest, #5 and #6 are a little intriguing, while #8 is the only one showing any consistency SF-wise, but for 7/2 I wouldn’t take my chances with her.

Summary: For what it’s worth, I’ll go with #2 for a Win from 3-1 upwards, #1,3 and 8 might be the best considerations for the Exacta.

HANA Predictions 09-04-25

Shifting this week’s HANA race, today’s sixth at Hawthorne, from Turf Paradise was about the best thing that could happen to me.

Not that I don't like TuP (although it is embarrassing for a track with this name to feature the world’s worst "turf" course, which, judging from the amount of dust, doesn't resemble anything close to grass), but Hawthorne is a track that meets HANA's pro-horseplayer spirit. Livestreams, a nice race preview show and free replays make this the best track for overseas bettors outside of CA, Lexington and Oceanport, NJ.

This marks the first time I have race replays (crucial to my handicapping routine) available for a HANA race, so it's not entirely a sympathy bet. The race is wide open and of very good quality for this level, which promises some real action in the exotics.

Notes on today’s runners:

#1 Lose None – managed to find trouble in almost every start and could well encounter some adversity here; don’t think she’s worth it at 4/1, but has every chance if given a clean trip.

#2 Miss Fontana – first start this season and will need improvement on her speed, but at 10/1 is worth some consideration; 31% ROI stable off layoff.

#3 Tessies Tilbury – fresh horse and looks perfectly primed for this, but seems to have profitted from near-perfect trips in both starts and might be looking at a speed battle here.

#4 B N Graced N Glory – impressive back-to-back wins and a 96 Beyer last time out, but both performances on the slop and hasn’t shown anything similar under different conditions in 9 other starts; I have reservations about that Beyer, too. Finished well beaten coming off her previous two outstanding performances in only attempt at stakes level (Jan17, TP, 6f).

#5 Fashionable Lady – shown promise, but would have to step up in class again; will likely have to go wide this time and may lack speed .

#6 Cart’s Lisa – gamely three times in a row battling a moderate lead from perfect gate position; will find the scenario tougher this time and at 5/1 is a very good throwout.

#7 Bow Tie Pasta – two very good forms in sprints and two lackluster ones in two-bend races; has always run much better in faster races and this one figures to be very fast.

#9 Cumulonimble – improved last time setting the pace but doesn’t have the early speed to overcome her outside post.

#10 Happy Henrietta – starts into her sophomore campaign and returns to a sprint; outside gate shouldn’t be that much of a problem but 9/2 just isn’t a reasonable prize.

#8, #11 – others seem more likely.

Summary:
Wouldn’t pick a specific one, but with several good throwouts, spreading some in the exacta or trifecta pools is the way to go.

Best Bets:
Small stacks can single out #2 for a quality Win bet if available from 8/1 upwards. The best bet is probably a weighted exacta. I'll wait for defections, race preview and post parade to decide how to weight my wager exactly, but my A-list includes numbers #1, 2 and 7 with 3, 4 and 10 worth consideration.

HANA Pool Predictions

Tonight’s HANA pool (the Exacta in race 3 at Mountaineer) perfectly accommodates all of my betting weaknesses. It’s a bottom-feeder claimer at a bottom-feeder racetrack, I'm unfamiliar with most of the horsemen and all of the horses (plus I suck at those pinball PP’s). It’s a dirt dash, while what little expertise I have is mostly on two and three-turn races, preferably on the turf. Worst of all, in the interest of the greater good I’ll have to rest my longstanding policy of boycotting MTR tracks. I’m perfectly willing to do so though, HANA simply is an admirable effort that not only every serious horseplayer but everyone with a passion for racing should want to be a successful one. In the spirit of these thoughts, let me share my very uneducated guess on tonight’s exacta.

The favorite, #3 Enter The Lion, may have a reasonable chance to win but at his ML of 5/2 just isn't worth it even in an exacta. He steadily dropped in class from Alw25k since last August. Returning to a sprint after three sub-par mile performances looks like a very good decision, but the horse's last efforts are meager and have gone downhill as steep as the class he’s trying. It might be a questionable approach to these kinds of races, but I like to see a hint of form somewhere. My first choice for the winner would be #7 Kris’s Honor, a highly consistent sprinter who appears to be in great shape. The horse has shown promise in his first two attempts at this level and should at least hit the exacta this time. My second choice would be #8 Hey Reemer, who looks to be in the right spot here and should take kindly to switching back from Turfway's polytrack to Mountaineer's dirt, where his better forms come from. As an ExactaBox, those two look worth the cost.

HANA Pick 3 Predictions

Don’t forget to bet the HANA Pick 3 today. And thanks to everyone involved for all the free handicapping tools provided.

My predictions can be found below. Keep in mind that I’m new to betting Tampa, which somewhat screws up my usual handicapping method, especially regarding the horsemen angles.

Race 6:
On recent form, it’s hard not to like #2 Silver Truth, even though starting for the 8th time since December (and getting claimed twice in the process) she may bounce at some point. As a safety net #4 Number Uno Lady may be a good choice. She switches to a stable with solid zeros in the wins columns, but three runner-up performances in as many starts. Doesn’t look like they send out horses without a chance and Centeno aboard again shows some confidence too. #7 Celebration Dance’s last two are promising, but the horse has bounced three times before on third after layoff.
The horse that befuddles me is #6 My Gemsa Gem, who is moving up in class from four races in which her closest was 13 lenghts behind the winner, finishing 7th. The problem is that her trainer seems to have a bit of success with horses moving up and I don’t see any reason why he should have moved her if he doesn’t feel confident.

Race 7:
Not overly confident in anyone, but #2, 3 and 11(AE) should be the creme of the field. Doubts mainly because I have no idea why Homeister sits on the second O’Connell entry, #10, instead of the more appealing #3. #10 has her second start after a long layoff, but has struggled against much weaker as a 3yo.

Race 8:
#4 Williamsburg doesn’t look like it on paper, but in Tampa you just can't ignore the ridiculously high percentages of Ness and Ziadie. If playing a bigger ticket, you should consider adding him as a safety measure. #1, 3 and 6 figure to be the class of the field, with #1 African Angel probably the least questionable choice (I wouldn’t take him for 5/2, but in a Pick 3 he might be worth it). Like #3 See I A, this might be a case of forcing a win during a bad streak, both horses move down in class despite not running catastrophic lately, and #3 might get the trip he's been waiting for.

Small Bet: 2 with 2,3,(11) with 1,3
Broadband: 2,4,6 with 2,3,10,(11) with 1,3,4,6