If It Had Four Legs And A Jockey On Its Back...

... then it must have been at least 30/1 to top the 2010 Kentucky Derby field. Fascinating case study in mass psychology and otherwise, this edition of the Run for the Roses was a strange but enjoyable one.



Super Saver became a worthy if somewhat circumstantial winner employing a strategy that is already hinted at in his name. A clear misnomer however was Looking At Lucky, who first had to be taken back right after the start, then was almost body-slammed into the rail by Stately Victor. That he still came back to finish sixth marks him as the best horse in this race. Devil May Care encountered a good deal of adversity too, but it's hard to say how many places it dropped her. Paddy O'Prado finished third, but should have been taken out of the race after shoving over Stately Victor – the incident that ruined the race for Looking at Lucky and could have easily resulted in a major spill on the rail. A perfect example of reckless raceriding that would have earned Kent Desormeaux a suspension anywhere outside of America.

And finally, I'm weirdly torn between embarrassment and pride on that handicapping job I did on Ice Box. On the one hand, I did expect him to finish off the board despite a lot of potential, on the other he did indeed lose all chance to threaten the winner by going far too wide on the final turn, and caught on for second with the help of what I see as a visibly firmer lane compared to most other horses (kudos to Jose Lezcano).
I'm not usually a fan of The Toddster, but you had to have some compassion with the silver-haired Ray Barone doppelgänger (I never noticed that before) for having to smile through the same dumb jokes every year, and particularly after the bad luck he had with Eskendereya.

NBC was dealt a good hand starting their program off with a McCarthy/General Quarters victory, but they also did a nice job presenting this race to a larger audience, though they unnecessarily screwed up the audio during 'Old Kentucky Home', and failed to do so when they should have during that bad rendition of 'Star-Spangled Banner'. The camerawork was horrible especially during those crucial moments when the horses entered the stretch and you needed a HD home cinema to see anything, but that's not NBC's fault.

Derby Brief

After reviewing the card and replays of more than 50 races including at least 3 for every single starter, the draft for my planned Kentucky Derby post died of obesity and still I couldn't pinpoint the one or two golden candidates, mainly because I think there isn't one. Since it doesn't make sense to add a 3-page post when there have been dozens of Derby previews all week, here's just the gist of it in brief:

The possible burn to start it off: I toss out Ice Box – talent, pedigree, pace scenario and form be damned. He isn't good enough to make it from the 6-path, and Zito has always ordered his numerous jockeys to go "in the clear" with him. My approach is simplistic but quite successful: "In the Clear" in the Kentucky Derby translates to "Off the board", unless your horse is far superior to their opposition.

The question who wins could easily come down to a more or less coincidence-based 'the one who gets through relatively unscathed on or near the rail' when the early birds are fading out. Looking at Lucky is the most likely candidate for this, especially since Gomez/Baffert will be searching for the inside route, which is not nearly as common as it should be. Plus, he does have superior class and seasoning compared to most of his opponents. Also, I agree with Sarah Palin (I gotta shower now), Devil May Care is in it with a chance (like Sarah Palin, unfortunately) and not just a choice for the mentally disadvantaged (unlike Sarah), although there is a huge question mark behind her ability to handle adversity.

If you like Mine That Bird odds, the entirely unheralded Dean's Kitten is one I wouldn't toss out. Yes he has lost against some of the weaker ones in this field, but looks to be perfectly primed for this race. He's got nice turn-of-foot and has settled down well over his last three starts, now showing enormous strategic range. Has to step up considerably, but then who in this field doesn't?

And of course: keep an eye out for track conditions (or rather, track maintenance/manipulation) during and especially between races. My guess: it will once again be sealed up like a Chinese dissident, which usually means the inside becomes even more favorable than it would generally be in an overpaced 20-horse field.

So There’s That Birdstone Gelding

I’m still recuperating from last Saturday’s Derby. I could have kicked myself that night for not placing any kind of crap shot bet on Mine That Bird after declaring the Derby a “Borel race”, strongly assuming that the rail would once again be wide open for the final turn and learning that there was a rail bias at Louisville. This first rush of frustration has waned by now, and made room for the realization that, really, I didn’t do anything wrong. In fact I layed off any exotics (thanks CD for being so arrogant as to require a $2-minimum on Exactas in a 19-horse field, you sure helped) and just lost $8 on four crappy sympathy bets (FF, DP, PoTN for a win at nice betfair odds; Papa Clem for a Show); could have been worse.

So MTB was a champion in Canada. He achieved it by winning four in row, three of them stakes races. But the best he did up Nord was a G3, and he didn’t win by more than two lenghts in any of these races. Then came a miserable BC and two now-famous mediocre performances in his only dirt starts at a backwater racetrack.

So he didn’t look quite that enchanting when suffering from bad moves at Sunland. I didn’t watch those races and likely wouldn’t have even if I had the race replays available. That‘s because even if they had been horrible trips he still should have distanced his opposition to figure as a Derby candidate. He moved up 24 points from his Sunland Derby Beyer, although in light of my last post I can’t help noticing how much the BRIS speed rating kicked the DRF’s butt (they had MTB rated at 88 for the Sunland Derby, and consistently about 10 points higher than the DRF). Pioneerof The Nile meanwhile was impressive in finishing second after the predictable wide trip. Not that I want to blame Garrett Gomez, who did the best he could with trainers’ orders to stalk but stay clear of kickback, which is a surefire way to make your Derby an 11-furlong race. Friesan Fire is excused because of his early accident.

So MTB was lucky in several ways on Saturday, but that doesn’t mean he’s a fluke. His rail move was thoroughly impressive and there’s no denying he did step up several levels from all of his previous attempts, which makes him a conspiracy theorists wet dream, but also American racing’s best story in years. I don’t expect him to be victorious at Pimlico, but I wouldn’t be shocked (again) either.

See You in Baltimore, Rachel!

The morning after Rachel Alexandra pulled off what might be the most impressive Kentucky Oaks win in history, the racing world is glowing in appraisal, with Railbird going so far as to compare the feat to the great Regret's of 1915.

Such comparison, however, misses the big difference. Regret won the Derby, Rachel Alexandra took off after a textbook trip to stun an Oaks crop we already knew she was superior to, although few had expected her to be that overwhelming. Others have pointed out that it would likely be unfair to criticize her connections for not running her in the Derby, but they won't have any excuse from here on. If wherever her career takes her next is anything but a Triple Crown race, the filly might be peerless among her sex, but her connections will have denied her a chance to show how great she really is. This filly can win against any opponent and should be campaigned that way.

In a related story, kudos again to last year's Eclipse voters. You decided against hyped supertalent Zenyatta for HOTY, figuring she really hasn't proven herself to be a Champion, despite her connections having every chance to do so. This weekend should have silenced your critics. True Champions don't hide from an opposition several levels below their class just because the track isn't absolutely perfect for them. Sorry, but if you don't have enough confidence in your horse to overcome a slightly off track against such opposition, I'm guessing we'll see another season of statistical stardom and all-female romps out of a horse that could have the talent to become an American Zarkava and help the sport overcome some of those stupid prejudices about fillies running against colts.

My Mint Condition Derby Strategy

Finding the best handicapping strategy for the Derby is easy: skip that freak show and concentrate on the dozen or so other races in which Saturday’s huge crowd, fueled by an increasing state of Julep-oversaturation, won’t fail to overbet the favorites, leaving the serious handicapper opportunity to cash in on some quality plays. Unfortunately, I'm not that serious a handicapper (as my 22-buck, 5-for-5 record today on betfair in-game tennis and snooker matches for a 2,14€-gain clearly proves). Besides, societal pressure demands at least an honest attempt at Derby handicapping from every racing blogger worth his salt, an obligation I’m now willing to fulfill:

In fact, not placing anything but a spice-up bet might be precisely what I'm doing after Baffert decided not to take the risk of Pioneerof The Nile being sensitive to some kickback, instead opting to test his colt’s sensibility for taking the countryside route both turns. My quality bet was supposed to be Desert Party, but with him getting more and more props from the public handicappers and, starting from PP 19, probably being boxed in on the outside rail by the Pioneer, I doubt there will be much quality left in this bet. One general concern about this year’s edition is the skyrocketing number of starters who lack a shot in a field that otherwise offers quite some quality, which figures to destroy any chance of a clean trip for all but the frontrunners, especially if CD shows off its usual speed-favoring self on Saturday.

With virtually every major contender determined to get a close look of the parking lot, this would usually suit up to be a Borel race. I still love reviewing that 2007 Derby, when everyone was so afraid of being boxed in at the rail that they opened up a highway for Borel's Street Sense, but I can't bring myself to embrace Mine That Bird's credentials here, even for 50-1 (why can't Borel be on Friesan Fire or DP, whyyy???).

In that scenario, Papa Clem and Friesan Fire might turn out to be the best bets. I'm not a real fan of either, but breaking from gates 6 and 7 with really nothing to their inside (early speed and otherwise), they might actually find themselves forced to take the shortcut. Until someone steps up big time, this has the makings of one of those years in which the Derby is for weeding out, leaving the Preakness to decide a real crop champion.

The Quality Road To Take

In a demonstration of horsemanship that hopefully will set the tone for this Triple Crown, and serve as an example to others, trainer Jimmy Jerkens has scratched Derby favorite Quality Road from the race after setbacks to the healing process on the colt’s (second) quarter crack.

Jerkens and Quality Road’s owner-breeder Edward P Evans are to be thanked for not risking the horse’s health in a forced attempt at making the Roses. The Sport of Kings needs more Horsemen like them. It must have been an awfully hard decision to make, and is therefor appreciated all the more.

Early reactions indicate the colt’s connections will give him a short rest, but he may be back to hopefully prove his class later during this Triple Crown.

No Broken Fixes, Please!

Despite the fact that Dunkirk has virtually secured his spot in the Derby field due to a number of health- and performance-related defections, concepts for a new Kentucky Derby qualification system are still pitched. The Osterman proposal, which the article linked above pimps, is a particularly ripe and representative example of the "Win-and-You're-In, if-the-race-has-the-highest-grade-it's-enough-to-show, though" - systems flying all around us this time of year.

For the uninitiated, the "playoff" system proposed by Today's Racing Digest writer Tim Osterman basically relies on a list of races (see below) in which a set amount of Derby spots is awarded (26 overall, Osterman hopes for repeat qualifiers and a handful of defections).

The 12 races Osterman listed that he feels should be used to determine the 2009 Kentucky Derby field:

1. March 7. Gotham Stakes (Grade III). The winner is in.
2. March 14. Louisiana Derby (Grade II). First and second are in.
3. March 14. San Felipe Stakes (Grade II). First and second are in.
4. March 14. Tampa Bay Derby (Grade III). The winner is in.
5. March 21. Lane’s End Stakes (Grade II). First and second are in.
6. March 28. Florida Derby (Grade I). First three are in.
7. April 4. Wood Memorial (Grade I). First three are in.
8. April 4. Illinois Derby (Grade II). First and second are in.
9. April 4. Santa Anita Derby (Grade I). First three are in.
10. April 11. Blue Grass Stakes (Grade I). First three are in.
11. April 11. Arkansas Derby (Grade II). First and second are in.
12. April 18. Lexington Stakes (Grade II). First and second are in.

Like all such proposals, a closer look reveals that support for them is motivated by the desire to solve a specific perceived flaw of the current system (in this case, I guess, the possibility of Dunkirk missing out) but it isn’t thought through in the least. In their attempt to rectify one flaw (if you see it as a flaw, which I wouldn’t), proponents of this and the many other qualification race systems are oblivious to the mountains of much worse imperfections such a system creates.

A case in point is the subjective choice of qualification races, usually founded on the fundamentally flawed system created by the American Grades Stakes Committee. In the Osterman system, two spots would go to the Lexington Stakes. Last year’s winner of that race was Behindatthebar (who qualified, then skipped the Derby, then bruised a foot before his scheduled start in the Preakness). Not qualified under the Graded Earnings System (GES) was Samba Rooster, who finished third in the Consolation Derby at LS next time out and didn’t do anything worth noticing afterwards. The year before, Slew’s Tizzy won, qualified, skipped, won the Lone Star Consolation, finished last in the Belmont and went on to a less-than-stellar career. Starbase was the runner-up left out of the Derby. And rightfully so, considering he subsequently failed to hit the board in the Ohio Derby and Arlington Classic. None of these Osterman qualifiers (the only ones in the polytrack era) started in the Derby, so what credentials does this race have to offer two spots, other than its formal status as a Grade II? In 2006, the last time this race was run on the dirt, Showing Up won. He got into the Derby under the GES, finishing 6th. The one who didn’t, but would have under the Osterman system, was Like Now, who went on to prove he didn’t deserve a spot by finishing 7th of 9 in the Preakness before finishing last in his next four starts. Under the current system, this now 180K-to-the-victor race is a de-facto “Win-and-You’re-In”, under the Osterman system it would more often than not waste a spot on a horse that doesn’t belong anywhere near the Derby.

No spots are given to the UAE preps everybody loves to hate, despite the fact that the 9-furlongs-of-conventional-dirt UAE Derby, regularly featuring some of the finest of last year’s South American 3yo crop, will consistently produce more likely Derby candidates than the somewhat anachronistic polytrack trial discussed above. In nine runnings until 2008, the race produced five Derby-eligible winners. One, Blues And Royals in 2005, never started again, leaving Discreet Cat in 2006, Essence of Dubai in 2002 (9th in the Derby, winner of the SuperDerby among other solid but not overwhelming results), Express Tour in 2001 (8th, Jerome winner and 3rd in the Woodward) and first-ever edition winner China Visit (6th, world-class miler). Not the worst race to slap a “Win-and-You’re-In”-tag on if you ask me.

While choice of races is questionable, the real damage is done elsewhere. Most troubling about the proposal is that it shifts the likelihood for a promising contender being skipped, but actually multiplies it. Dunkirk apologists never fail to point to the fact that the horse’s career started late due to health issues. Isn’t it worthy of support, they ask, that the trainer didn’t rush the horse?

In the Osterman system, a much worse case can happen. Given that all qualification races are between early March and mid-April, what happens if a horse has a stellar juvenile career, goes on to impressively win the Southwest and the Rebel, or the San Rafael and the Sham, or the Holy Bull and the Fountain of Youth, but suffers a minor injury or infection at the beginning of March, sidelining him for a few weeks? Or if such a horse starts in the middle of that timeframe (which includes the Florida Derby) and, hampered by a horrible trip or fundamental infraction, finishes fourth in a major prep? Wouldn’t such a horse be more worthy of a spot in the Derby than, say, the runner-up of the Illinois Derby; an illustrious group that over the last five years included the unforgettables Golden Spike, Reporting For Duty (who eventually became a Derby winner, at Zia Park), Mister Triester, Monarch Lane and, last but unfortunately not least, Song of the Sword (the only one of this bunch to actually qualify for the Derby under the GES, finishing 11th; then 9th of 10 in the Preakness).

Looking into the Futures

With the third and final Derby Futures pool opening tomorrow, the field is starting to shape up.

Most interestingly, Dunkirk is listed with a morning line of 8-1 (Quality Road is the favorite at 6-1) even though it’s questionable that he’ll even start. So far I haven’t heard anything about his connections resorting to desperate measures (by which I mean the Lexington or Derby Trial) and he is likely to sink too low on the Graded earnings list over the next two weekends. Not to mention that the running style he’s shown so far is ill-suited for the Derby.

Another odd choice is Theregoesjojo at 20-1, for a horse that is currently about 20k behind even being on the bubble, not to mention being beaten decisively by direct contenders in his last two starts. Am I missing something here?

The value bet may be 30-1 Desert Party, who has a lot of excuses for his runner-up performance in the UAE Derby. Like Dunkirk, he may have gotten a lot out of this defeat. Unlike Dunkirk, it didn't risk his Derby spot.

Mafaaz is listed in the morning line as 50-1, but considering how many tipsters have professed confidence in his chances those odds will probably be much lower. In my opinion, if his connections decide to start (which they likely will), they’ll do so for no other reason than his starting purse. The Kempton field he topped was good enough for what that race was, a Listed event, but as for the quality of his opposition, let me just share that my main motivation for betting him in that race was his promising fifth place in last year’s Timeform Million, a race that produced quality all the way to at least 8th place. I’m also not sold on his dirt credentials, it’s probably not very encouraging that his connections chose to run his final prep over the Polytrack. Maybe for some people it’s just wishful thinking, seeing as Mafaaz is already being built up as a posterchild for drug-free racing.