Get Lucky Laying Rachel?

First of all, I love the Preakness. I admit I’m a bit partial about this race and track.

For the record, the reason is not my secret craving for being part of a frat party, it’s that Preakness Day is one of few events in American racing that manages to attract a huge crowd out of all walks of life, the vast majority of them not being simultaneously drunk and stupid. I also have a general sympathy for Baltimore, which is in part fueled by The Wire, although Pimlico only gets brief stints as a drug-infested neighborhood in what I consider one of the greatest works of art in history.

I guess ultimately the reason is the human inclination to root for the underdog. The Preakness, tucked in between the glamorous Derby and the more prestigious showdown at the Big Apple, is always the ugly duckling of the Triple Crown. Promoters never seem to be quite sure what to make of it, frequently concentrating on the alleged anachronism of the date, or the lack of beauty in the surrounding neighborhood. In any recap of Triple Crown sweeps the Pimlico race is sure to be the one least talked about.

This is especially weird because the Preakness is often the most meaningful 3YO race of the year, returning the top finishers from the Derby to race under more conventional circumstances, with less of the trip trouble and destructive pace scenario that usually characterizes the Run for the Roses.

This year’s edition looks like a potential one-for-the-ages:

#1 Big Drama – not confident he’ll stand the distance; really hasn’t done anything wrong so far, but somehow I’m far less impressed than most observers are

#2 Mine That Bird – Fool me once... As I said before, I don’t expect him to win this, but I wouldn’t be shocked; hard to handicap a horse that improved so much on his last start; he won’t have such a favorable trip twice, but his Derby move was too good to be explained away as merely a circumstantial fluke, figures to be a contender again

#3 Musket Man –I had him sized up for an honest racehorse who could get into the money, but not one to really menace before the Derby, which may have been underestimating him a little; went spectacularly wide for the final turn, but then again several outlets mentioned that 6 or 7 wide may have been better than 3 or 4 wide on that CD track; all in all I don’t have him on the shortlist this time either, but would consider him if playing the trifecta

#4 Luv Gov – broke his maiden on the 10th attempt; his undercard win on Derby Day was nothing to write home about; he went clear late on a muddy track after a perfect trip, but didn’t beat much and did it in less-than-impressive time, giving his opposition much more headway than he can afford this time; horrible stable form in Graded Stakes, too; frankly I don’t see why he’s entered in this race

#5 Friesan Fire – I share the concerns about him returning so soon after suffering an injury in the Derby; pretty much depends on whether you think the quarter crack story was overblown; starts from a tricky post statistically

#6 Terrain – stable drops sharply in Graded Stakes, plus there is no real reason why he should suddenly improve over horses that have distanced him before

#7 Papa Clem – nice effort in the Derby, but he was true to form there, and being true to form again isn’t enough here; I think he’s a fine racehorse, but a level below the creme of this crop, also starts from a tricky post statistically

#8 General Quarters - As great a story as he is, I never shared all the optimism; the reason is simple: I think those Keeneland preps are way overblown because of their historical importance, in the Polytrack era they have so far been entirely meaningless for the Classics; the Blue Grass aside, he’s shown some useful performances, but none that make him a contender in this field.

#9 Pioneerof The Nile – ran a very good race in the Derby and may find it a bit easier here (although his Derby trip was far better than it could have been); if RA fails, he’s the go-to candidate, although he might be singled out (hence bet) more than he should be; I don’t find his speed figs too slow at all, he got a 95 Beyer or 103 BRIS going 3 wide both turns on a rail-favoring track, which translates into a very reasonable performance

#10 Flying Private – didn’t like him in the Derby, and I’m starting to think D. Wayne Lukas (who trains Luv Gov too) is going for the tail end exacta here. To be fair, he faced adversity in pretty much all of his starts, but his running style and post do little to inspire hope for a reversal of fortunes.

#11 Take The Points – the return-to-dirt and return-to-winning-jock angles are working in his favor; has shown some potential and at 30-1 ML he might provide good value, but may well be parked wide again and needs to step up anyway.

#12 Tone It Down – Well, he was competitive at Laurel, wasn’t he? Pacesetter who doesn’t nearly have the early speed to overcome post 12, let alone the quality to finish it off.

#13 Rachel Alexandra – By far the most important question concerning this race: will she boom or bust. To repeat from an earlier post: “if there’s one race Rachel Alexandra looks vulnerable in, it’s the Preakness. The filly has been re-directed to this race less than ten days before post time, her previous owners obviously never entertained the idea, whereas it must have been lingering in the back of any Derby owner’s or trainer’s mind to some degree. Plus she has changed stables in between, adding an extra stress factor that should more than offset any advantage she may have gained by not running the Derby”. Add the fact that she hasn’t been seriously tested all year, she might get surprised this time. Plus, Borel is the best squeezer around, but squeezing is always a risky tactic, and not one I like to see when I rate a horse superior to the field. Not sure if Borel will try the rail, though.

The more general question: how good was her Oaks win? After a perfect trip she pulled off for a record-shattering 20 ¼ lenght romp, Borel didn’t push her in the stretch. But to assume that a horse could have gone much faster just because it wasn’t urged to is one of the most frequent mistakes in handicapping. Besides, victories by a canter can be deceptive, I’ve seen 6yo Class 3 handicap horses look like the second coming of Eclipse when cantering home in a weak field. I expect her to be at the very least one of the best of this crop, but with all of the above plus the trip scenario from gate 13 going against her, I guess she won’t prove it today.

Summary:
Pretty wide open for a Preakness,
Considerations for the Win: #2,9,13, of which I wouldn’t play the 13, rest may only be played if Betfair offers some good value, or if you’re a fervent believer in the the get-lucky-laying-Rachel theory; Longshot bet #11 if available for 30-1 upwards.
Exacta: any combination of the above, add #5
Trifecta: add #3 and #7 to the pool

Best Bets: Definitely in the exotics range, I might try a 2,9,11 with 2,5,9,11 with 2,3,5,7,9,11,13 trifecta. If you have more money to spare, consider backing this up with smaller trifectas singling the show-spot horses for win and place.

Finally, I swear this post was all but written before I found out that several parts look like I copied them right out of Joe Drape’s or the DRF’s analysis.

Enter the Geldings: From MTB to Zayat

At the end of the day, Mine That Bird co-owner Mark Allen took a hiding. Well, not a hiding, but a PR release in which he contradicted everything we already know has happened and still found the time to come across as the stereotypical hillbilly millionaire. He might have been surprised how much harder behind-the-scenes fixing is in the Triple Crown as compared to what he’s accustomed to from Alaska.

Even so, Borderland Mark couldn’t help slipping in a cheap shot, mentioning that he doesn’t believe in running a filly against the boys at this stage. One could go into a lenghty off-the-racing-topic discussion about judging others based on one’s belief rather than reason here, but let’s just say he also is a man who calls Steve Asmussen “a great trainer” and believes that Mike Smith has “got some Cowboy in him”, which he knows because he’s seen Smith’s boots.

Allen thus accomplished the challenging feat to out-dumb Pioneerof The Nile's owner Ahmed Zayat, who earlier in the day had explained to the world his theory that it’s just unfair for someone else to have a better horse, that it’s not okay for a new owner to change the direction of their horse’s campaign, that horses shouldn’t skip the the Derby to run in the Preakness (which of course is precisely what his placeholder horses would have done), repeated the notion that the Triple Crown was for stallion prospects (such as MTB?) and finished it all off by working in the scare card (“Two weeks for a filly? Does our sport need another Eight Belles”). Now that’s true, our sport could use another Eight Belles incident about as much as the one Ahmed Zayat it’s already stuck with.

What’s most stunning about this affair is the chutzpah by which two millionaire owners not only regard a Triple Crown race as somehow belonging to them (“I think this match is between us, it's a rivalry” – Mark Allen according to Ahmed Zayat) but also conspire to keep a horse they both regard as superior out of the race, then defend it with what can only be described as a public relations nightmare at the expense of the sport.

All this chickening-from-the-chick biz is especially remarkable and foolish because if there’s one race Rachel Alexandra looks vulnerable in, it’s the Preakness. The filly has been re-directed to this race a mere less than ten days before post time, her previous owners obviously never entertained the idea, whereas it must have been lingering in the back of any Derby owner’s or trainer’s mind to some degree. Plus she has changed stables in between, adding an extra stress factor that should more than offset any advantage she may have gained by not running the Derby. If you can't see a chance to beat her in Baltimore, where are you gonna hide the rest of the year?

Between Zayat, Allan and Mine That Bird, the gelding is the only one who's got some balls.

So There’s That Birdstone Gelding

I’m still recuperating from last Saturday’s Derby. I could have kicked myself that night for not placing any kind of crap shot bet on Mine That Bird after declaring the Derby a “Borel race”, strongly assuming that the rail would once again be wide open for the final turn and learning that there was a rail bias at Louisville. This first rush of frustration has waned by now, and made room for the realization that, really, I didn’t do anything wrong. In fact I layed off any exotics (thanks CD for being so arrogant as to require a $2-minimum on Exactas in a 19-horse field, you sure helped) and just lost $8 on four crappy sympathy bets (FF, DP, PoTN for a win at nice betfair odds; Papa Clem for a Show); could have been worse.

So MTB was a champion in Canada. He achieved it by winning four in row, three of them stakes races. But the best he did up Nord was a G3, and he didn’t win by more than two lenghts in any of these races. Then came a miserable BC and two now-famous mediocre performances in his only dirt starts at a backwater racetrack.

So he didn’t look quite that enchanting when suffering from bad moves at Sunland. I didn’t watch those races and likely wouldn’t have even if I had the race replays available. That‘s because even if they had been horrible trips he still should have distanced his opposition to figure as a Derby candidate. He moved up 24 points from his Sunland Derby Beyer, although in light of my last post I can’t help noticing how much the BRIS speed rating kicked the DRF’s butt (they had MTB rated at 88 for the Sunland Derby, and consistently about 10 points higher than the DRF). Pioneerof The Nile meanwhile was impressive in finishing second after the predictable wide trip. Not that I want to blame Garrett Gomez, who did the best he could with trainers’ orders to stalk but stay clear of kickback, which is a surefire way to make your Derby an 11-furlong race. Friesan Fire is excused because of his early accident.

So MTB was lucky in several ways on Saturday, but that doesn’t mean he’s a fluke. His rail move was thoroughly impressive and there’s no denying he did step up several levels from all of his previous attempts, which makes him a conspiracy theorists wet dream, but also American racing’s best story in years. I don’t expect him to be victorious at Pimlico, but I wouldn’t be shocked (again) either.

See You in Baltimore, Rachel!

The morning after Rachel Alexandra pulled off what might be the most impressive Kentucky Oaks win in history, the racing world is glowing in appraisal, with Railbird going so far as to compare the feat to the great Regret's of 1915.

Such comparison, however, misses the big difference. Regret won the Derby, Rachel Alexandra took off after a textbook trip to stun an Oaks crop we already knew she was superior to, although few had expected her to be that overwhelming. Others have pointed out that it would likely be unfair to criticize her connections for not running her in the Derby, but they won't have any excuse from here on. If wherever her career takes her next is anything but a Triple Crown race, the filly might be peerless among her sex, but her connections will have denied her a chance to show how great she really is. This filly can win against any opponent and should be campaigned that way.

In a related story, kudos again to last year's Eclipse voters. You decided against hyped supertalent Zenyatta for HOTY, figuring she really hasn't proven herself to be a Champion, despite her connections having every chance to do so. This weekend should have silenced your critics. True Champions don't hide from an opposition several levels below their class just because the track isn't absolutely perfect for them. Sorry, but if you don't have enough confidence in your horse to overcome a slightly off track against such opposition, I'm guessing we'll see another season of statistical stardom and all-female romps out of a horse that could have the talent to become an American Zarkava and help the sport overcome some of those stupid prejudices about fillies running against colts.

My Mint Condition Derby Strategy

Finding the best handicapping strategy for the Derby is easy: skip that freak show and concentrate on the dozen or so other races in which Saturday’s huge crowd, fueled by an increasing state of Julep-oversaturation, won’t fail to overbet the favorites, leaving the serious handicapper opportunity to cash in on some quality plays. Unfortunately, I'm not that serious a handicapper (as my 22-buck, 5-for-5 record today on betfair in-game tennis and snooker matches for a 2,14€-gain clearly proves). Besides, societal pressure demands at least an honest attempt at Derby handicapping from every racing blogger worth his salt, an obligation I’m now willing to fulfill:

In fact, not placing anything but a spice-up bet might be precisely what I'm doing after Baffert decided not to take the risk of Pioneerof The Nile being sensitive to some kickback, instead opting to test his colt’s sensibility for taking the countryside route both turns. My quality bet was supposed to be Desert Party, but with him getting more and more props from the public handicappers and, starting from PP 19, probably being boxed in on the outside rail by the Pioneer, I doubt there will be much quality left in this bet. One general concern about this year’s edition is the skyrocketing number of starters who lack a shot in a field that otherwise offers quite some quality, which figures to destroy any chance of a clean trip for all but the frontrunners, especially if CD shows off its usual speed-favoring self on Saturday.

With virtually every major contender determined to get a close look of the parking lot, this would usually suit up to be a Borel race. I still love reviewing that 2007 Derby, when everyone was so afraid of being boxed in at the rail that they opened up a highway for Borel's Street Sense, but I can't bring myself to embrace Mine That Bird's credentials here, even for 50-1 (why can't Borel be on Friesan Fire or DP, whyyy???).

In that scenario, Papa Clem and Friesan Fire might turn out to be the best bets. I'm not a real fan of either, but breaking from gates 6 and 7 with really nothing to their inside (early speed and otherwise), they might actually find themselves forced to take the shortcut. Until someone steps up big time, this has the makings of one of those years in which the Derby is for weeding out, leaving the Preakness to decide a real crop champion.

Dark Clouds Gather over Pimlico

The bankruptcy of owner Magna may put it's historic Baltimore property, Pimlico Racecourse, in serious danger, the Baltimore Sun reports. Home of the Preakness (the least prestigious, but arguably the most meaningful jewel of the Triple Crown), Pimlico's and the race's future have been the subject of much debate over the last couple of weeks, but a solution has yet to be found.

In the interest of racing, let's hope that the unique sight of Pimlico's crowded infield will not become a thing of the past. The Triple Crown isn't the Triple Crown without the Preakness, and the Preakness isn't the Preakness if it's not run in the slightly rowdy but likeable, always electrifying atmosphere of it's Baltimore home.