Saturday, 9 May 2009

HANA Predictions 09-05-09

More a reminder than a true attempt at predicting the outcome:

Tonight’s Pool Party, Race 6 at Prairie Meadows, brings the HANA train back to the netherlands of American racing (no offense intended; being from East Germany, I don’t share the West German love-hate relationship with our oranje neighbors). This will be my first ever bet at PrM. In fact, I wasn’t even aware one of my ADW’s carried the track until I checked last night. I didn’t spend much time handicapping this (without replays or knowledge about track and horsemen) and felt a little lost with this Clm7,5K for 10K, but here it is for the sake of it:

#1 Courtney J: weird improvement in her speed figure despite allegedly going 6 wide last start while returning to this track (again, I don’t have the replays); has repeatedly been competitive here in roughly comparable class last year.

#2 T C’s Sweetie: returns to track, re-united with last winning jock, won Alw races here last year and regularly sports SF’s beyond today’s competition, but is the only one off a layoff (since January); switches to a high-percentage stable that drops with first-out winners but rises just as much in first-out placed starters, suggesting they don’t send out horses for a prep.

#3 Ekberg: returning form Oaklawn, has won her last two starts at this track; second off layoff since last August, could go either way.

Of the rest, #5 and #6 are a little intriguing, while #8 is the only one showing any consistency SF-wise, but for 7/2 I wouldn’t take my chances with her.

Summary: For what it’s worth, I’ll go with #2 for a Win from 3-1 upwards, #1,3 and 8 might be the best considerations for the Exacta.

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