The Dresden File

Munich's Oktoberfest, A Racing History

2010-09-17T07:21:00.000-07:00

Long before it became a favorite opportunity for the rest of the world to make fun of Germans, and for the rest of Germans to make fun of Bavarians, Munich's Oktoberfest had become an interesting footnote in the annals of horse racing.

When it was first held on October 17, 1810 on a large meadow just outside town, there was not a single beer hall on the grounds. The history of the Oktoberfest instead began with a horse race, held as the highlight and final of the celebrations surrounding the marriage of Prince Ludwig of Bavaria to Princess Therese of Saxe-Hildburghausen five days earlier.

Originally the idea of one Franz Baumgartner, a coachman and member of the Bavarian citizens' militia, the concept was presented to King Maximilian I. by Baumgartner's commanding officer, cavalry major and banker Andreas von Dall'Armi, whose personal fortune could also take care of the necessary investments.
Maximilian was all for it. The Duke of Bavaria since 1799, he had been proclaimed the first King of Bavaria in 1806, a title somewhat tainted by the fact that he pretty much owed it entirely to his controversial subservience to Napoleon, who had first stripped the duchy of a considerable part of its belongings, then awarded it even greater lands elsewhere (and the title of a kingdom) after the Bavarians had switched to his side. The result of these turbulent developments was that Maximilian now ruled a country in turmoil, constantly upset by one controversial reform after another, and with many of his subjects not particularly fond of either the king or the kingdom. It was in this light that Max was anxious to use the festivities to present himself favourably to his people. And this was also the reason why he decided to combine the race day with patriotic parades and a huge feast for the populace, which in turn sowed the seeds for what was to become the world's largest fair.

The 1810 horse race itself was in the tradition of the medieval "scarlet races", with the winning jockey being awarded a valuable piece of scarlet cloth. His name: Franz Baumgartner.

A success with both the bourgeoisie and the lower populace, the festival was repeated the next year, and extended by an agricultural fair. Offering a handy and highly remunerative opportunity for brewers to clear out their reserves of last season's Märzen beer at the start of the new brewing season*, the Oktoberfest quickly took off as the almost aggressively convivial swilling-contest we know today (then again, you have to be pretty tanked to look the other way on the clothing, I guess). The original racing component on the other hand became more and more of an afterthought and was ultimately cut off between World Wars.

In 2010, on occasion of the festival's 200th anniversary, horse racing will return for the first time since 1960, and the second time post-WWII in the form of short-circuit races for haflingers and other regional breeds.

* before the advancement of refrigeration and production technology, brewing beer was only allowed between Michelmas (September 29) and St. George's day (April 23); Märzen, which literally translates to an outdated version of March, indicates a beer brewed very late in the season and elaborately stored ('gelagert') all through the summer

(images: Peter Heß: "Das Pferde-Rennen bey der Vermählungs Feyer", depictig the very first Oktoberfest in 1810 [top]; Heinrich Adam: "Das Pferderennen auf dem Münchner Oktoberfest 1823", both paintings are part of a current exhibition by the Münchner Stadtmuseum)

(video of a 2010 Haflinger race; added Sept. 18; 1825 CET, 1225 EST; source: ganz-muenchen.de)

Joe Hirsch Must Be Rotating By Now

2010-06-15T08:54:00.000-07:00

The frequently insightful and entertaining Paulick Report is chuckling about a rather bad factual error in racing's paper of note, the Desert Valley Times of Southern Utah. Apparently, the DVT's racing columnist Duke Hunt has suggested the Haskell Invitational as a possible tete-a-tete for Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra in his latest column, leading Mr. Paulick to suspect that Joe Hirsch must be rolling in his grave.

Now, I can't help but think that Joe Hirsch would be more disappointed that with all the factual errors (to say nothing about leaps of logic) you'll find in an average edition of the DRF or Blood-Horse, the one turf writer Mr. Paulick slams is some retired former USAF sergeant who writes for a minor provincial paper on a hobby basis. Or the fact that Mr. Paulick ridicules this guy on a large racing website without even leaving a comment at the article itself.

For perspective, not to ridicule (no, really), I had already dug up some old fact-checking error from the Paulick Report's archives, remembering that one edition of Mr. Paulick's helpful "Saturday Stakes, Where to Watch" posts had listed the Florida Oaks, Tampa Bay Derby and Honeybee Stakes as turf races, one of them at the wrong time too. Happens to everybody, unless you have an excellent fact-checking department.

And then I decided to google the esteemed Desert Valley Times of Southern Utah (both for info and because it struck me as odd), and wouldn't you know: the Desert Valley Times is a twice-weekly paper from Mesquite, Nevada, right on the Nevada/ Arizona border. To be fair, the DVT is owned and distributed by St. George, Utah daily newspaper The Spectrum, but Mr. Hunt's column, which deals with racing topics and his local race book, is very obviously DVT-produced content.

Yes, sloppy fact-checking is a bitch.

I guess you just have to be lucky that no one notices such easily avoidable mistakes, or that they at least aren't such a dick to write about it on the net, be it on a well-visited aggregator/ news site or some obscure blog from Germany that has made its own share of factual blunders.

(Image of Secretariat winning the 1974 Breeders Cup Classic [source])

Stand Up and Hide

2010-06-12T10:06:00.000-07:00

We know that controversial Southern California trainer Jeff Mullins is not always aware of the rules, but apparently he still doesn't break them, as this wonderful website seeks to convince us. Seems Ole' Jeff is the victim of a conspiracy led by the California Horse Racing Board, an institution not often accused of taking no-tolerance policy a step too far.

I admire the courage of those alleged "horse owners, trainers and friends in support of Jeff Mullins" who so bravely stand up to "do everything in [their] power" to help and "lend [their] voices", well... anonymously.

I agree. Justice for Jeff Mullins by all means. I also agree that it won't come from the CHRB. My choice would be the FBI.

(Image from Cafepress.com)

Apartheid Ended? Check! Now Get Rid of those Vuvuzelas!

2010-06-12T04:27:00.000-07:00

With the World's greatest excuse for public chanting having started in South Africa, there is still one local racing fixture on the agenda today: Dresden Racecourse's main raceday of the year, the remains of the traditional two-day meet.

Surprisingly unfazed by Berlin's big day last weekend, a one-off event that included the G2 Preis der Hauptstadtregion and the G3 Benazet-Rennen (replacement races for the cancelled Baden-Baden spring meet), the Sachsen-Preis (Listed) field is just as outstanding as last year's. I don't think I've seen such an assortment of horses known for both potential and inconsistency before. Of 11 starters, 8 have won or placed in Class A races over their last 6 starts, almost all of them have also ended up up the track in the same class several times.

Best of all: no vuvuzelas (two World Cup games in the books and I already hate those things)

This marks the first time in more than a month that I'll watch a German race live and place a bet on it. Not coincidentally also the first time since all of my ADWs decided not to renew their license for the German simulcast stream. The reason they didn't is quite simple: the German stream costs about five times as much as one of the two British ones, shows roughly 10% of the number of races and - even according to the projections of German Racing, the sport's own promoter - creates far less handle.*

I could of course open an account with one of the ADWs that still keep the German stream. I'll do that at some point in the future, but quite frankly this might be the drop that breaks the camel's water, or somesuch. I'm fed up with running after the providers for the privilege of betting into their pools, which – considering the 30% takeout – I do out of pity more than anything else. On a related subject, I also didn't spend the 10 minutes or so it would have taken to find a P2P stream for ABC on Belmont Day. If NYRA doesn't think it should provide overseas customers with any opportunity to see the main races, it obviously doesn't want overseas business. Must be glorious if you can afford yourself that luxury. I've never said that about a Triple Crown race before, but the 2010 Belmont definitely wasn't a must-see.

* (numbers from memory; German Racing's business concept, which I got them from, doesn't seem to be online anymore)

In Case of Filly Mishandling Accusations, Vodka can Provide Relief

2010-05-10T09:45:00.000-07:00

Granted I don't follow the Japanese racing media extensively, but to the best of my knowledge fans and bettors in Nippon did not predict catastrophe in 2007, when 1000 Guineas runner-up Vodka opted to skip the Oaks and later Japan's Distaff Championship to instead compete in the Derby and Japan Cup. And when her winter 07/08 results were not up to previous form, trainer Kazuhiko Sumii and owner Yuzo Tanimizu were not broadly accused of mistreating the filly with their callous insistence on entering a racehorse in horse races. Then again, this being Asian racing, those people are used to seeing their greatest equine stars prove themselves for half a decade, a distant memory for followers of the sport in America (and the times when Europe's absolute superstars were around for more than a dozen races is beyond the recollection of the living). In "proving" themselves, it is obviously implied that some of those who looked like the next Horse of the Decade as youngsters will turn out to be merely good, and that's where we in the quality-starved racing world start to lose grip.

Take Rachel Alexandra for example. Excluding her Kentucky Oaks romp and standard spring campaign for her old connections, the filly's allegedly too hard 3yo campaign consisted of two hard-fought wins (Preakness and Woodward) and one demanding one (the Haskell). Good, very good. But is beating Summer Bird by a couple of lengths and beating Macho Again by a nose really ample proof that she – even at her very best – was as spectacularly great as hype and her ambitious owner Jess Jackson would have us believe? (I want to make it perfectly clear that I found and find her a deserving winner of the 2009 HotY award based on this campaign, just not necessarily the best American filly in decades).

Horses lose former class (or class edge) all the time, especially when turning from two to three and from three to four year olds. This shouldn't be news to anyone and generally isn't, but if the subject in question happens to be last year's "superstar", European and American fans seem to forget the most basic truisms about our sport. We have become so estranged from the experience of seeing a 3yo superstar return that we are willing to buy into the most assinine of theories to explain the most ordinary of developments. Developments that we wouldn't find in any way suprising for a returning G3 horse.

Horsemen of past decades didn't think that you should campaign a good horse as fluffy as possible. This thinking entered the racing world when a speculation bubble started elevating stud fees into ridiculous spheres, paradoxically making "not racing" the most profitable option available for the owners of talented racehorses. It was then that horsemen, in need of a justification other than pure profit, started telling the world that there was something like a moral obligation not to "overexpose" top class racehorses. It was, not coincidentally, also the time when horsemen started to routinely retire horses for injuries that in the past would have been treated with a short period of rest and a couple of changes to the campaign plan.

It doesn't take a great thinker to find out that the real reason for this is a different one: by cherry-picking target races, equine stars can go through their career hardly ever facing other top horses and thus end up with stallion ads that make every borderline BC candidate look like the second coming of Man O'War. And by retiring early you don't risk finding out that this youngster of spectacular class was just an early bird with some fine class, after all. In a breeding market in which actual class had become an afterthought to flashy stats and superficial promise, this made perfect sense from an economical point of view.

What we have here then, it strikes me, is a case of believing the cover story you made up yourself. Which, judging from the reaction to Rachel's La Troienne loss, most racing fans obviously do. A current poll over at Fugue For Tinhorns, asking if Rachel's owner and trainer change a year ago was good for the filly, is heading for a resounding victory for "No".
Apparently, there is broad consensus for the theory that her demanding 3yo campaign has taken too much out of the horse, that horses should be campaigned more cautiously. Where does this lack of confidence come from? Or, to put it differently: when the fuck did PETA manage to convince even the fans of horseracing that thoroughbreds are indeed so incredibly fragile that the only responsible way to handle them is to not challenge them at all?

What racing is left with after decades of alienating anyone who likes a little quality with their sports is a fanbase that's eaten up all the excuses. And maybe, just maybe, we racing fans are getting exactly what we deserve – and that's not good.

Even though it largely dealt with self-inflicted proplems – superstitions and anthropomorphisms that never had any logical or empirical basis in the first place – having a three-year-old filly campaigned like a racehorse (until August at least) was probably the only major step forward American racing has done on its own in more than a decade. Given the public perception of her career, if Rachel Alexandra turns out to be less than outstanding it seems inevitable that American racing will take two steps back as a result.
No other sport I'm familiar with has such an incredible talent to create its own problems, and is so insistent on keeping them.

Vodka - a Potent Cure for Problems of Perception

Vodka at the age of two, winning the G1 Hanshin Juvenile Fillies Stakes, one of only two Japanese G1s for 2yo's:

As a sophomore, Vodka won the G3 Tulip Sho (Japan's main 1000 Guineas Trial) from the great Daiwa Scarlet before finishing second to the same filly in the target race. In late May, she took the Japanese Derby from Asakusa Kings and the rest of what turned out to be a very strong crop. In June, she took on older horses for the first time but finished only 8th in the G1 Takarazuka Kinen.
She returned to form after a layoff, finishing third to Daiwa Scarlet in the G1 Shuka Sho (Autumn Oaks, if you will) before a respectable fourth place in the Japan Cup, 1 ½ lengths behind Admire Moon. At the age of three Vodka contested in six G1 races, all of them filled with the maximum number of 18 horses, and against the very best Japanese horses in open company.

Vodka's four-year-old season went off moderately with a 6th place in the G2 Kyoto Kinen and a 4th in the G1 Dubai Duty Free, her first start abroad. The elsewhere oft-maligned Dubai trip didn't seem to hurt the filly at all, as she went on to win the G1 Yasuda Kinen and the G1 Tenno Sho over 2000m (by a nose from Daiwa Scarlet) and in addition finished second in the G1 Victoria (F&M) Mile and the G2 Mainichi Okan before again coming close when third in the Japan Cup.

After another mediocre return in the 2009 G2 Jebel Hatta and G1 Dubai Duty Free, a five-year-old Vodka ran a stellar season which included a 7-length romp in the Victoria Mile and a repeat win of the Yasuda Kinen before being crowned when she narrowly held on for that elusive victory in the 2400m Japan Cup.

How's that for a challenging schedule? To be sure, Vodka was the rule rather than the exception in Japan. Her great rival Daiwa Scarlet ended her career after her 4yo season, which she crowned by winning Japan's second-most important race, the 2500m G1 Arima Kinen (in which she had already finished second as a 3yo).

(Wikimedia Commons image by Goki)

If It Had Four Legs And A Jockey On Its Back...

2010-05-02T01:42:00.000-07:00

... then it must have been at least 30/1 to top the 2010 Kentucky Derby field. Fascinating case study in mass psychology and otherwise, this edition of the Run for the Roses was a strange but enjoyable one.

Super Saver became a worthy if somewhat circumstantial winner employing a strategy that is already hinted at in his name. A clear misnomer however was Looking At Lucky, who first had to be taken back right after the start, then was almost body-slammed into the rail by Stately Victor. That he still came back to finish sixth marks him as the best horse in this race. Devil May Care encountered a good deal of adversity too, but it's hard to say how many places it dropped her. Paddy O'Prado finished third, but should have been taken out of the race after shoving over Stately Victor – the incident that ruined the race for Looking at Lucky and could have easily resulted in a major spill on the rail. A perfect example of reckless raceriding that would have earned Kent Desormeaux a suspension anywhere outside of America.

And finally, I'm weirdly torn between embarrassment and pride on that handicapping job I did on Ice Box. On the one hand, I did expect him to finish off the board despite a lot of potential, on the other he did indeed lose all chance to threaten the winner by going far too wide on the final turn, and caught on for second with the help of what I see as a visibly firmer lane compared to most other horses (kudos to Jose Lezcano).
I'm not usually a fan of The Toddster, but you had to have some compassion with the silver-haired Ray Barone doppelgänger (I never noticed that before) for having to smile through the same dumb jokes every year, and particularly after the bad luck he had with Eskendereya.

NBC was dealt a good hand starting their program off with a McCarthy/General Quarters victory, but they also did a nice job presenting this race to a larger audience, though they unnecessarily screwed up the audio during 'Old Kentucky Home', and failed to do so when they should have during that bad rendition of 'Star-Spangled Banner'. The camerawork was horrible especially during those crucial moments when the horses entered the stretch and you needed a HD home cinema to see anything, but that's not NBC's fault.

Derby Brief

2010-05-01T06:07:00.000-07:00

After reviewing the card and replays of more than 50 races including at least 3 for every single starter, the draft for my planned Kentucky Derby post died of obesity and still I couldn't pinpoint the one or two golden candidates, mainly because I think there isn't one. Since it doesn't make sense to add a 3-page post when there have been dozens of Derby previews all week, here's just the gist of it in brief:

The possible burn to start it off: I toss out Ice Box – talent, pedigree, pace scenario and form be damned. He isn't good enough to make it from the 6-path, and Zito has always ordered his numerous jockeys to go "in the clear" with him. My approach is simplistic but quite successful: "In the Clear" in the Kentucky Derby translates to "Off the board", unless your horse is far superior to their opposition.

The question who wins could easily come down to a more or less coincidence-based 'the one who gets through relatively unscathed on or near the rail' when the early birds are fading out. Looking at Lucky is the most likely candidate for this, especially since Gomez/Baffert will be searching for the inside route, which is not nearly as common as it should be. Plus, he does have superior class and seasoning compared to most of his opponents. Also, I agree with Sarah Palin (I gotta shower now), Devil May Care is in it with a chance (like Sarah Palin, unfortunately) and not just a choice for the mentally disadvantaged (unlike Sarah), although there is a huge question mark behind her ability to handle adversity.

If you like Mine That Bird odds, the entirely unheralded Dean's Kitten is one I wouldn't toss out. Yes he has lost against some of the weaker ones in this field, but looks to be perfectly primed for this race. He's got nice turn-of-foot and has settled down well over his last three starts, now showing enormous strategic range. Has to step up considerably, but then who in this field doesn't?

And of course: keep an eye out for track conditions (or rather, track maintenance/manipulation) during and especially between races. My guess: it will once again be sealed up like a Chinese dissident, which usually means the inside becomes even more favorable than it would generally be in an overpaced 20-horse field.

45 Days to Go... Or 136... Or...

2010-04-14T09:19:00.000-07:00

Iffezheim Racecourse near Baden-Baden, by far the most important track in Germany, has been slipping in out of bankruptcy for about a year now (publicly; much longer behind the scenes). Its most recent (potential) savior is Infront, a renowned Swiss-based sports promoter, more exactly its Chairman Andreas Jacobs, who also part-owns Deutsche See (Germany's leading wholesaler of frozen seafood), but more importantly is also the Chairman of Gestüt Fährhof, one of Germany's most important thoroughbred owners and breeders.

Fährhof, which took the unusual step of turning into a not-for-profit foundation a few years before the passing of its founder Walther J. Jacobs (Andreas' grandfather), is currently represented Internationally by Quijano and has also campaigned the likes of Silvano, Sabiango, Borgia and Black Sam Bellamy in not-too-distant memory. Still, it may be most prominent as a breeder, the place where such sires as Acatenango, Lomitas and Surumu left their mark on the breed.

On March 23, Baden-Baden Racecourse's prospective new operator issued a press release which was, for whatever reason, received very positively by most of the International racing media, although it didn't announce any substantial new developments, other than finally confirming the open secret that Baden's highly important Spring meet was indeed cancelled (read the Racing Post's account).

What first dampened my enthusiasm about the "upbeat" announcement is the fact that, as of April 14, the club's own website is the only one in the world that still announces the next race date for May 22, and has a countdown ticking for a long-cancelled race date. In fact, the Internationaler Club's news section has not been updated to include anything about the press release.
The news coming since then (and also the news NOT coming) is some cause for alarm, because as of yet absolutely nothing – incl. Baden's summer meet – is definite, other than the fact that the "hope that all the legal niceties have been sorted out" was unjustified. An important notary meeting set for last Thursday was postponed until today. The city (which owns the property) and investor still have not come to definite terms on a lease and therefor on the contract itself.
Meanwhile, the Direktorium's (racing board's) plan to transfer as many as possible of the spring meet's feature races to other tracks had an official deadline set for April 11, but did go into overtime, with a final result to be expected tomorrow (Update: as of April 27, it's still not 100% airtight, but it seems very likely that all Group and a couple of the other races will be run on other tracks).*

In local news, Dresden Racecourse's high-flying dreams of installing a large photovoltaic system in the infield (and thereby making roughly the handle of one of their racedays in annual profit) were pretty much scrapped by the city. In response to the discontinuation of the Listed Preis der Dreijährigen, Dresden Racecourse has announced a new Listed race, the Dresdner Herbstpreis, to be run on the traditional final date in mid-November, over 2200 meters for 3yo's & up, thereby adding actual sporting importance to what has already become a favorite day for most racegoers.**

* Thanks go out to Rüdiger Schmanns, Manager Racing Department at the Direktorium, for giving me this information in the form of a prompt email response to a question asked via their website's "contact" box.

** Race not officially announced yet and therefor subject to change (although it seems safe it will be scheduled). Distance and age group info as per phone conversation with the club's executive director, Uwe Tschirch (here too, thanks for a thorough update are in order).

(Panoramio image on top is by Sigi2)

The Cigarilla

2010-04-09T12:39:00.000-07:00

When five horses enter the gate for the Apple Blossom Invitational Handicap today at Oaklawn, none of them will be named Rachel Alexandra, and therefor the race will be run for a purse of 500.000$, rather than the proposed 5 million. Though the costliest part of Oaklawn's questionable stunt* will go down as a historical footnote, the race will still be run over 9 furlongs, almost a week after the originally given date, and the word 'Handicap' was obviously left in the title just for a chuckle. The "Invitational" part is to be taken literally though: it pretty much is an open invitation for Zenyatta to hit the magical 16 consecutive wins at minimal risk.

No race is ever won before the result is final, but Zenyatta will definitely not be 'beaten' by any of her opponents. Fate and Team Zenyatta themselves are the only ones who can cause the great mare to lose in this race.

As for the 5-million proposal: a historical footnote it may be, but an isolated oddity it certainly isn't. This year's Apple Blossom marks the current nadir of a trend that spans several decades and may most aptly be called "the horseman's condition book". The trend is characterized by an ever-increasing tendency to write stakes books and assigning weights according to the interests of influential – or in some cases merely very vocal - owners, trainers and breeders rather than the interests of fans, bettors or the sport, let alone the principles of sportsmanship.
The late Robert Frankel elevated badgering racing secretaries into an art form back when he had superstars like Ghostzapper and Empire Maker in his stable. Who could forget the time when he let it be known that his reigning HotY Ghostzapper would start in, of all races, the Oaklawn Handicap – but only if "the greatest racehorse in 20 years" (according to one R. Frankel) was assigned no more than 121 pounds. 2005 Oaklawn sent Bobby back to NYRA, where he always found an open ear. 2010 Oaklawn assigns 123 to Zenyatta - a virtual walkover. As if that wasn't enough, never before has the conditions sheet for a major race been mutilated so heavily to accommodate the interests of one or more specific horses.

Going forward from here, connections of superstar horses know that they can get the purse, date, distance and conditions of even major fixtures changed at short notice (a side issue of course, but should a race that has all but one of the basic conditions changed after publication of the Graded Stakes Schedule not be stripped of its grade?). Inclusion criteria for this new class of platinum customer equine star seem to be based on hype, which is a problem for a sport known to overhype horses on a regular basis.

So why is this post headlined "The Cigarilla"? Simple: as great a feat as Zenyatta's is, when Cigar tied Citation's winning streak in 1996, he did so beating nine opponents, giving 12 pounds to Unbridled's Song, 14 to Honour and Glory, 12 to Dramatic Gold. Zenyatta will give 3 pounds to War Echo and Just Jenda, and give new meaning to the old Soccer saying that "a tie is often a moral victory for one side".

Trivia Corner: there actually was a racehorse called Cigarilla once, a 1979 daughter of Banderilla (by Native Dancer).

* Several good reasons to call the proposal questionable can be found in this post on the great, recently revived (well, more or less) Thoroughbred Blog.

Result:
(section added April 10; 1025 CET, 0425 EST)

No surprises here. The race was written for Zenyatta, and she effortlessly won it going away. That's it in showbiz news, now on to horse racing.

The Passion of the Steven

2010-03-28T07:05:00.000-07:00

Steven Crist is often one of the first and most effective in pointing the finger at some of racing's ills. Even if you disagree with him, his columns and posts are usually informative.

Unfortunately, he also has a tendency to become excessively adamant on some of his pet causes, to the point where his articles on the subject not only become repetitive, but where his passion for the cause gets the better of his reasoning. A particularly egregious example of this could be witnessed in the wake of yesterday's Dubai World Cup. Crist's DRF-hosted racing blog is one of the most-visited on the net, and therefor I think that a post like yesterday's Tapeta-bashing "World Cup Crapshoot" warrants closer examination (quotes from his post are in Italic):

"The winner, front-running Gloria de Campeao, is an admirably durable Brazilian 7-year-old who was beaten 16 1/2 lengths by Curlin in the 2008 World Cup and 14 lengths by Well Armed in the race last year"

Of course he was the runner-up in 2009, beaten 14 lengths by Well Armed, but 4 ½ in front of everyone else. Crist doesn't mention that. Admirably durable he is indeed, but such a characterization seems somewhat understated for a horse that can also be summed up like this: "Gloria de Campeao obviously scored the signature victory of his career, but he has been successful all over the world. He was a Grade 2 winner at a mile on turf in his native Brazil, was sent to train in France with Bary, won the Singapore Airlines International Cup-G1 in 2009, and for the third consecutive year has won or placed in graded stakes in Dubai", the latter characterization is quoted from the Fugue For Tinhorns blog.

"The runner-up, Lizard's Desire, came into the $10 million race with a field-low bankroll of $207,442, having finished 10th and 11th in his two prior starts in Group 1 company in his native South Africa."

True; but the horse had also won a South African G3 by 5 lengths and finished second to Dan De Lago in a South African G2, both on turf. After the latter race he switched into the hands of Mike De Kock, who, they tell me, is quite good at prepping horses for the Dubai carnival. Lizard's Desire went on to win his first two Dubai starts comfortably, then finished 5th, beaten 1 ½ l. in the World Cup's major prep race, the G2 Maktoum Challenge Rd3.

"Allybar, who was third, was 0 for 6 in graded or group races of any kind"

This is flat out false. Entering the gates yesterday, Allybar was 1-for-7 in group races, a winner of the G3 Maktoum Challenge Rd2 over this very course in February. An oversight like this can happen to anyone, but there are other things that can not be explained so easily:

First: Yesterday evening, I left the following notice on Crist Blog:
"Allybar was 1-for-7 in graded stakes of any kind. He won the G3 Maktoum Challenge Rd2 over this course in February. He also finished on the board in 4 of his 5 French group starts on the turf and was beaten all of a length when fourth over this course and distance 3 weeks ago. Yeah, he really came out of nowhere."
It takes a special kind of dickishness to block this comment and not even correct a clear error of fact in the post. Of course, correcting this mistake would undermine Crist's argument, and given that Allybar also finished on the board in 5 of 7 group races, it never was much of an argument to begin with. It is common these days for so called "political commentators" to shamelessly contort reality into the shape that best fits their narrative, but for a racing essayist to slip into this kind of propagandistic rabble-rousing is more than a bit questionable.

"America's supposed synthetic specialists -- BC Classic runner-up Gio Ponti (who finished 4th), Goodwood winner Gitano Hernando and Pacific Classic winner Richard's Kid -- had no impact on the finish."

So what's your point? Would Tapeta have been acceptable if Gio Ponti had won? Aren't you just making a circular argument here? Richard's Kid, last seen winning a slow San Antonio Handicap by a neck after being without a chance in the BC Classic, should never have been anywhere near a 5/1 morning line to begin with. Gitano Hernando was the upset winner of last year's Goodwood Stakes at OSA, by a neck. He spent the winter in England, where he won the all-important Winter Derby Trial (Listed) at Lingfield. If you had him rated above Gloria de Campeao or Allybar for yesterday's race, the fault may be with your handicapping rather than the Tapeta. For the record, he's not an American horse. Gio Ponti's 4th place behind three horses specifically aimed at this race is not exactly catastrophic.

"In the past, the World Cup was a true showcase for champions, such as Cigar, Silver Charm, Dubai Milennium, Invasor and Curlin. Now? Step right up and spin the wheel."

Actually, the result matches better with previous forms than last year's edition, but why let reality interfere with our narrative. If your argument is that the 2010 World Cup lacked a superstar or two: the same is true for last year's edition. Well Armed became a superstar for a breathtaking romp on the old dirt track at Nad Al Sheba, but he went into that race a 10/1 shot and off-the-board in two of his last three starts, including a 9th place in the BC Dirt Mile.

As for the other Tapeta races:
The UAE Derby – perfectly true to form; great race
Golden Shaheen – good performance by 7/1 Kinsale King, but if Robbie Fradd had settled into the race half as well as his mount, 7/4-favorite Rocket Man would have cantered home
Godolphin Mile – Desert Party and Cat Junior failed to perform, which made this race a wide-open affair. The top three had all won at Meydan and were 3rd, 2nd and 5th over this course and distance in the G3 Alhaarth on March 4.

Both the Godolphin Mile and the Dubai World Cup were very hard to handicap. But that was because of the depth of the field and the questions surrounding many of the shippers. A tough handicapping task is not the same as a crapshoot handicapping task (go handicap a German Hcp F or a bottom-level claimer at Mountaineer next and you'll notice the difference).

"[The race] was a $10 million advertisement for how synthetic surfaces can make a complete mess of so-called world-class championship racing. For all that it proved about the quality of the contestants either individually or as a group, the results of the Dubai World Cup might as well have been drawn out of a hat."

Ladies and Gentlemen, we regret to announce that Steven Crist's sense of reason had to leave tonight's event early.

The Dubai Sheema Classic: Handicapping in a Vacuum

2010-03-26T11:54:00.000-07:00

Shd, shd, ¼, ¼. Those are the winning margins of all stayer races run so far over Meydan's Turf course. In more detail:

February 4 (2800m): Age of Reason wins by a short head from Titurel (who, btw, won a Hcp C at Dresden last June), the third is Mojave Moon, distanced by another short head.

February 11 (2485m): Globetrotter Halicarnassus adds another track to his CV, beating Mourilyan by a short head.

February 25 (3200m): Sabotage goes clear by a full quarter of a length to take the DRC Gold Cup from Age of Reason.

March 4 (2485m): Campanologist beats Turkish sensation Pan River by ¼.

In all but one of these races, the 6th-place horse was beaten less than 2 ½ lengths by the winner. If we include all three races from the next distance run (1800m), it adds wins by 1 l., a short-head, and a whopping 3 ½ l. (by Alexandros on Feb 4, after what must be one of the most picture-perfect trips in the history of racing).

I learned all of this when I was trying to handicap tomorrow's 2400m Dubai Sheema Classic, probably the least predictable G1 race I have ever encountered. You get used to the fact that half the field in DWC races has not run in months, or has run a continent or two away as recently as two months back. But this year, even the Dubai forms are a clear case of "definitely maybe, if..." . I think I'll put my faith in Buena Vista. Or Spanish Moon? Dar Re Mi? Deem? Presious Passion?

Result:
(section added Mar 27, 2320 CET, 1820 EST)

Once again it proves true: never trust in anything John Gosden says. The new conditioner of Dar Re Mi was interviewed minutes before the race, mentioning that Dar Re Mi was not in peak form, was more of a horse that "gets better as the year goes by", and also noting that the harsh winter hasn't helped.

One stadium lap later, Dar Re Mi (9/1) held on to take the race from Buena Vista (6/1) by 3/4 l.; Spanish Moon (6/1) was third a head behind the second. Deem (50/1) finished fourth, Presious Passion (12/1) came in last of 16.

Oaklawn Dodged a Bullet

2010-03-16T09:12:00.000-07:00

There could be some debate about whether or not the connections of Rachel Alexandra must be considered the big losers of last Saturday. However, there can be no question about who the big winner of Monday was: Charlie Cella, the mastermind of Oaklawn Park.

And he is a mastermind indeed. During the decades of his ownership, the Arkansas track has fared remarkably well from both a sporting and a financial standpoint. It is a racino, but one of the few which are actually a racetrack with a casino, rather than the more common alternative of "a casino with lots of horses in the backyard".

Cella has never been afraid of going his own way, as when OP continually got snubbed by the AGSC. To their credit, the committee finally gets the relative strength of the Ark, Illinois and Ohio Derbies right this year, but Oaklawn still continues its policy not to mention the grades of their stakes races in their condition books or stakes schedule.

So it wasn't a huge surprise to see Charlie tackle the Rachel v Zenyatta question on everybody's mind head-on. Personally, I don't like Oaklawn's 5-million-Invitational proposal at all, but that's a topic for another post. More importantly, I'm sure that as of Saturday evening, nobody liked the proposal less than Charlie and the good folks at Oaklawn. After all, nothing in the revised conditions sheet demands that Rachel or Zenyatta turn up for the race with their respective winning streaks intact.

The fact is: after Rachel's hapless performance in an ungraded stakes race, the great duel that we've been waiting for has (at least temporarily) lost a lot of its appeal. What Oaklawn would end up with isn't worth half of the 5-million-tag.

Sure, it was a loss in a race off a long layoff, a race in which Rachel's camp employed a pretty overconfident race strategy. Sure, racing fans would still be excited about the matchup. What's more, I don't think it would necessarily be a foregone conclusion. But as for the mainstream appeal ... well, mainstream might not be the right word to describe ESPN News or Fox Sports Southwest.

The other fact is: Oaklawn has a wonderful storyline at the original purse, as long as Zenyata shows up. For 500.000$, Oaklawn is the place where Zenyatta can tie Citation and Cigar for 16 consecutive wins. (Even though the exact nature of the "record" is a bit cheesy; "modern day consecutive wins on major or mid-major racetracks", maybe? Oaklawn tries it with "consecutive unrestricted victories", but personally I'd say that "F&M" is quite a restriction. Regardless, it would be a great feat).
Tying Citation and Cigar should be enough to have the eyes and minds of racing fans focussed on Hot Springs on April 9. Rachel Alexandra would add another dimension, but basically the race would attract almost the same public attention with or without Rachel, the only difference being the 4.5 million more that Oaklawn would have to spend for the privilege.

As for the fans: we were robbed of the great duel that should have happened. But that was last November, not so much on Monday. Time will tell if there will be another chance to see a peak-form Rachel race against a peak-form Zenyatta. Time has told racing often enough that you shouldn't let such opportunities slip when they're there.

Back from Hibernation

2010-03-13T02:55:00.000-08:00

I believe that sports, much like bears or squirrels, do much better if they allow themselves an annual period of rest and recovery (ask a panda!). Every fan knows that there are two outstanding days in any sport: opening day (when the whole season is ahead and everything is possible) and finals day (when a story that has been unfolding all season finds its conclusion).

Horseracing, with its global, diverse heritage and its rootedness in nature, does not allow for a true World Championship or a uniform opening date, but it evolved from regional, strictly seasonal circuits. Yet, with the notable exceptions of Hong Kong and Ontario, all major racing jurisdictions today refuse to even give their followers any time to rest and reflect.

In North America, the introduction of winter racing to Northern states and the simultaneous year-round expansion of Western and Southern circuits has pushed the sport into a downward spiral (in destroying season structures; economically; but even more in pioneering a destructive approach to business strategy) which the sport has never recovered from.

In Europe, it was only over the last one or two decades that "winter racing" was introduced and gradually expanded – enormous numbers of dirt or artificial surface races of little sporting value. The effects are more subtle, but essentially the same.

Racing fans therefore have to take their off-season breaks on their own, which I usually do from December to February. I went a step further this year by completely avoiding any racing media since early January (in Germany this is easily done by stopping outright effort to the contrary, you won't just stumble over racing updates). I was aided by the fact that we had a real winter for the first time in over a decade (or – in the words of the media – a "snow chaos"; because for the media on both sides of the Atlantic there is, apparently, absolutely no state in between "no snow" and "SNOW CHAOS – hide the kids and run – we're all gonna die --- and these goosebumps here prove that global warming is a sham made up by a billionaire scientist cabal out to destroy our defenseless mom-and-pop industrial corporations").

Anyway, my rather extreme Off-season seems to have worked, I don't think I've been this excited about starting into a season in years. After spending last evening re-watching "Seabiscuit" (The Movie) and "Seabiscuit" (the related PBS docu)*, I intend to spend much of this weekend reading up on TDN newsletters, Turf-Times newsletters and half a dozen blogs.

P.S.: I would have announced this blogs hibernation beforehand, but it was a slightly forced, spur-of-the-moment decision, and while I have received vastly different assessments about the size of my ego, it was in any case not large enough to dedicate a Raceday360 post entirely to such an announcement, particularly for a blog that's only updated once a month or so anyway.

* - On a sidenote: how can PBS, with its tiny, constantly-threatened budget continually produce better work in almost all fields of documentaries (history, science, art, social, nature) than either of Germany's two public broadcasting behemoths with their 7.2 billion € annual battle chest?** And does it make things better or worse that, with the exception of the BBC, every single one of Europe's giant national broadcasters can't even begin to challenge PBS in this field?

** - They're currently in the habit of just pretending they did. [As you can tell from the opening sentence] I bought the German-market DVD-Sets of PBS' superb "Evolution" series as well as the BBC's highly-acclaimed "Blue Planet" and "Planet Earth" series this winter, and in each case every episode ends with a "presented by ARD"-screen, as does every single BBC or PBS docu they broadcast on TV. It does not specifically mention that the ARD's involvement was limited to contributing the German-language audio track. I'm sure if they ever produce a German audio track for "Ken Burns Baseball", this one will be tagged as 'co-produced by Berlin-Brandenburg Broadcasting' too.

(Image: 1963 race at New Orleans' Fair Grounds Race Track in the snow; Source: the N.O. Public Library)

'10 Predictions

2010-01-01T03:12:00.000-08:00

Silvester, the annual ritual of Germans quite literally blowing up millions of Euros in the form of fireworks, had a foggy renewal last night. Unlike most other countries, German New Year's Eve fireworks are an amateur event, meaning millions of cheap rockets being launched by tipsy family fathers and close-to-passing-out youths. Not coincidentally, Silvester is also the mother of all paydays for the German hospital and firefighting supply industries. As well as the German producers of sparkling wine (there may also be a causal connection there). But frankly, after witnessing the bright boredom of organized fireworks on New Year's Eve in other countries, I absolutely prefer our customary mayhem.

In the spirit of randomly launching missiles for entertainment purposes, let's start this year off with a couple of random thoughts, labeled "predictions" to mask the fact that most of them aren't new:

Several more states will team up with casino operators to increase their respective gambling gains by cutting off the leech known as racing...

... Horsemen will be shocked, while the racing media will act as if you couldn't see this one coming a mile away

The 2010 BC at Churchill Downs will produce about as many odd results as both Santa Anita Pro-Ride editions combined, and that's if there is no increment weather

Yet, haters of artificial surfaces will continue to think of OSA as the "weird" one

There won't be an American Triple Crown sweep this year (this is the only prediction I don't feel very confident about), which is why the media will once again go through its own annual firecracker ritual of declaring the series anachronistic and practically impossible...

Based on those articles, casual fans would never guess that only one Belmont mishap and a less-than-daring filly owner prevented us from very likely celebrating back-to-back Triple Crown sweeps in 2008 and '09

There also won't be a British Triple Crown sweep (let's face it, if an overwhelming Guineas and Derby winner skips the St. Leger in a year when all they have to beat are Mastery, Kite Wood and Monitor Closely, it's not gonna happen)

If there isn't a very public, very graphic breakdown of a prominent horse, we will hear a lot about the necessity of a major overhaul of American racing, but not much about actual reforms

Alex Waldrop will see it differently

I will once again find it hard to explain to friends and family why I keep following racing when I'm aware that almost every other sport does a better job at putting up a product worth following

(Image: New Year's Eve fireworks 2008/09 in Dresden; image from Focus.de)

In Case You Still Have A Christmas Wish Open...

2009-12-16T07:35:00.000-08:00

… last week saw the arrival of the latest installment of thoroughbred racing's only PC game franchise of notice, Starters Orders 4.

Developed by Mark Loveday's Strategic Designs, Starters Orders is the only series holding up the torch for a sport that, if you get a grip on its complexity, is really perfectly suited for the PC sports manager genre. Yet there have been few contenders, and most of them were just plain bad.

I've played the original Starters Orders; played SO Pro; edited and played SO 2 Deluxe (the version including Aussie and US datasets). I never really played SO3 because I was one of a group of customers on whose PCs SO 3 didn't work (the demo worked, though, so I know what features were added).

New features for SO 4 include a revamped graphics engine, a new Irish dataset (three actually: flat, jump, both). More fundamentally, the Australian and US data sets are finally integrated in the game itself (no longer as an add-on). There is also a multitude of minor new features, such as night racing, added racedays and improved jockey AI.
On the negative side, most of the race naming and scheduling flaws introduced in SO 2 or earlier are still around, and even though the game adds a so-called “schedule editor” feature, the latter is of little practical use. Hence, actual editing still has to be done using the enormously helpful SO Decrypter created by Strategic Designs forum member Outbackstables (the Decrypter can be found here).

After about 8 hours of intense testing (unbelievable what hardships I'm willing to endure for the sake of this blog :-)), it's still too early to rate the detail changes; but it can be said that the Starters Orders franchise continues to step in the right direction, and maintains its traditional strenghts, which are complexity and realism for both player- and CPU-campaigned horses.
While this is (even in the US and Aussie datasets) unmistakably a British game (f.e., Claiming races continue to be run under UK rules in every dataset), there is some progress on the International front. Most notably, the game finally adds track conditions for dirt tracks.

Sidenote: No news about the only other racing simulations which can be labeled good: Action Games' Hooves of Thunder / Quarter Pole series, which has not seen a new edition since 2002. Those games had fundamental flaws resulting from very poor campaigning patterns of the CPU-controlled horses, but between such extras as a collection of racing artwork, racing jokes and using the voices of real-life Mid-Atlantic track announcers for its tracks, HoT/QPP emanated an air of true dedication to the subject, which is not often found in PC games in general. And after all, it had the right flaws, such presented by actual difficulties, not sloppy design and a rushed release (customers of EA Sports FIFA games in which snowfall was as likely in December in Trondheim as it was in Florence in June or NBA games with a completely wrong salary cap system will know what I mean).

P.S. Nope, I'm not getting any perks for this post.

Things That Racing Fans Can Learn From Cycling

2009-11-02T11:05:00.000-08:00

After already missing out on the Arc weekend because of my diploma work, I’ll also be unable to follow the upcoming Breeders’ Cup live. Ironically, the reason is that I’ll be in North America (that is, on a week-long trip to NYC which more likely than not won’t include a trip to Aqueduct). So no handicapping or strong interest from my side, although I will root against Zenyatta in the Classic. She may have a good chance (not too much to overcome there anyway), but personally I just don’t want to experience another 'Zenyatta For HOTY' campaign.

On a totally unrelated front, a topic that did catch my eye was a discussion on the site of my blogger friend Glenn Craven. Even though I keep finding the root of the debate a non-issue, the debate itself offers quite some value (I frequently find comment sections more worthwhile than the post itself, including on my own blog).

During said debate, I had brought up a comparison of racing’s drug problem with that of cycling, which Glenn rejected. I’m hardly the first one to draw that comparison, and it's also not the first time that I’ve seen it rejected based on the argument that cycling's doping issue was, as Glenn put it, "more obvious and well-reported".

As a longtime cycling fan (up to last fall, when they dropped the fight against cheaters for the most part), I take issue with this argument. The "more obvious and well-reported" character of cycling's problem is just that: a matter of publicity. But to the 1990s fan of cycling, the similarities between the two situation are eerie.

Just like in American thoroughbred racing, the suddenly public issue of doping was an open secret to many regular followers long before it made newspaper headlines. The problem wasn't any more rampant in 2005 or 2000 than it was in 1995, it's just that the media suddenly reported "shocking news" which had for years been commonplace knowledge to fans and many of those reporters. The only thing truly shocking was the extent of the cheating system, which (as it turns out after more than a decade of police investigations) included the vast majority of pro riders and teams, hundreds of medical professionals and even renowned medical research institutes.

Until shit hit the fan, however, cycling fans heard precisely the same kind of downplaying by pros, sporting directors and, yes, medical staff we in the horse racing fandom have become used to ('no matter what it looks like, it's always just an isolated incident, and blown out of proportion anyway').

Like in pre-investigation cycling, there has been the occasional whistleblower in American racing: Jack Van Berg labeling today’s racing environment "chemical warfare" during last year’s congressional hearings was one of several such examples out of the horseman roster.
There is also this disturbing account by former SoCal clocker Bob Kachur, an online book that I first came across about 18 months ago and initially thought must be quite well-known, but instead it seems to be a totally obscure one. I’ve read it several times since then and have continuously checked his descriptions against the facts known to racing outsiders, finally finding that the only reason it seems unbelievable at first sight is that I really don't want it to be true. I have yet to find a single instance in which I could disprove or even seriously doubt anything he writes.

Also just like in cycling during the mid-90s, there have been a handful of journalists who are unwilling to take the crap dished out by the sport’s establishment, the most prominent being Joe Drape and Andrew Beyer. Interestingly, Beyer lists cycling as his other favorite sport.

Such voices are, however, at best ignored by racing’s establishment of horsemen, racing officials, track operators, racing media etc.; often ridiculed as nutty curmudgeons, or outright accused of hurting the sport.

There are more than enough instances which make it clear that cheating in American racing is everything but a minor issue, but let’s just review one (well, two really) example(s) from this season:

Probably the most hilarious racing-related thing all year: Jeff Mullins initial defense to this spring’s detention barn incident, that he routinely used the substance in question, Air Power, on raceday in California and didn’t realize it was illegal in NY. The chuckler: it was just as illegal in CA for almost a year, meaning that Mullins unwittingly revealed that a) he and others routinely break the rules in CA; and b) Californian oversight is so incredibly lame that trainers not only never got penalized for openly violating rules, but don’t even care to learn those rules in the first place (even though "nothing but water on raceday" doesn’t seem such a tough one to memorize).
We shouldn’t be surprised though, after all CA is the state where racing officials traditionally see their primary task in helping to cover up instances of cheating, rather than in keeping such instances to a minimum. It’s also the state where, a few months later, a group of trainers including Mike Mitchell, Jeff Mullins, Art Sherman and Doug O-point-Nine'Neill saw fit to openly lobby against a steward they didn’t like. Excuse me, but isn’t opposition from a Who’s Who of cheaters the stuff that should earn a racing steward a raise rather than a trip to the unemployment office?

The facts are obvious: at least a third of North America’s Top 20 or Top 40 trainers have a long list of major rule violations (and very little remorse for any of those). Keep in mind that those are only the instances racing’s (in most states) lax oversight authorities cared to inform us about.

Life Is Not a Hollywood movie

I think one of the main reasons people are unwilling to accept the reality of widespread cheating in racing is because we’ve grown up with movie images of cheaters. One thing the cycling example makes clear is that cheaters don’t usually fit our superficial image, or even the alternate cheater images we’ve come to accept. There were the occasional tragic madmen (Marco Pantani) or desperate losers (Floyd Landis), but most of all there have been people who, in many ways, perfectly fit the cliché of the hard-working pro cyclist, who even showed a good deal of sportsmanship in other regards.

That someone is a cheater doesn’t mean they’re lazy; it doesn’t mean they owe all of their success entirely to the cheating, and it doesn’t mean they are entirely bad people. That’s why I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that Jeff Mullins is a caring family man, Kirk Ziadie can be a helpful friend, or even that Rick Dutrow (on some abstract level and with obvious reservations) deeply cares about the horses entrusted to him.
All of this is possible and not even unlikely. And you know what: I still want those crooks [more colorful expletive deleted] kicked out of the sport. I don’t care what kind of a person you are in any other regard as long as you keep ruining this great sport. Be a great family man and a great friend, but as long as you can’t restrain yourself from cheating in our sport: be all of that as a postal worker, and try keeping your fingers out of the envelopes please!

(Image on top is from Good Times Cycling Blog, showing Marco Pantani; a poster child for cycling’s drug problem, although the frequently raptured Italian national hero was an unusual case in several ways. His drug-related death may have been averted if authorities hadn’t been so casual about his problems. In one case, the Italian media and cycling federation successfully lobbied that the penalty for his third positive test in three years was set out as six-month ban from October 'til March, a time he wouldn’t have competed in a race anyway)

Of Canadians, Cinderellas & Solar Cells

2009-10-17T11:58:00.000-07:00

Late entry, but not too late (also, the third Raceday 360 post with a title starting with Of... in only two days). I intended to handicap the E P Taylor and Canadian International today, then got carried away, first by Newmarket’s Champions Day, then by a quite stunning press release issued by Dresden Racecourse.

The Champions Day’s highlight, the G1 Champion Stakes produced a mild surprise in Twice Over’s win as well as a surprisingly-surprising-to-a-surprisingly-large-number-of-surprised-people hapless performance by the favorite Fame And Glory (which came telegraphed to everyone who paid attention to the Arc).
The undercard – if you want to use the term for 5 group races and one of those “Heritage” handicaps that really deserve the title - the Cesarewitch over Newmarket’s entire Beacon Course – saw a 33-1 G1 Dewhurst upset by yet another colt named Beethoven (in yet another case of 1-2-4 Ballydoyle dominance), Ashalanda extending the Aga Khan’s Awesome October in the G2 Pride Stakes, and Dresden File favorite Akmal topping a rags-to-riches-y season with a 7th win in 11 starts by ways of an impressive victory in the G3 Jockey Club Cup.

On the homefront, Dresden Racecourse announced that it has entered an agreement to install Germany’s largest inner-city plant of photovoltaic collectors in the racetrack infield, which may not look all that great in combination with the wooden landmark-registered grandstand. On the plus side, the 25 million € project should ensure the quality of the racing product (Dresden itself is comparatively well off, thanks to attendence figures which habitually outnumber all but the very big German tracks, but due to the remote location problems of the other East German tracks hurt Dresden, too).

As to the initial topic of the post, the Canadian International at Woodbine once again falls short of what a 2 Mio race could offer if it was scheduled a little better, with the European contingent looking particularly weak. It's a wide open field with 7/1-longshot Buccellati probably representing the value bet; 11/2 Champs Elysees and 6/1 Quijano being the underlays.

Not falling short at all is this year’s edition of the E P Taylor Stakes:

#1 Treat Gently – on class alone, the Vermeille-3rd and Opera-4th is a ridiculous overlay at 8/1 ML, but this is only her second start of the year, the other one being a convinving Alw win at Belmont in July; again competes on a track where her running style shouldn’t be that much of a disadvantage and look to be a contender here

#2 Rainbow View – British-based Dynaformer filly was the winner of the G1 Matron at Leopardstown last out and has also shown she can stay the distance, but she has had a long season and looks questionable at an 8/5 ML; then again, there is the dreaded First-Time-Lasix factor

#3 Lahaleeb – unimpressive in her last two starts, and on Euro forms has to be rated below #1 and #2; long season too and runs without Lasix; jockey switch doesn’t help either

#4 Eastern Aria – good forms in high-level Conditions and Handicap races in Britain and France, but has yet to make her graded debut; second-to-last form upgraded considerably by winner and 3rd-place finisher; campaigning without layoff since early February though, and 16th start of the year might prove one too many; FTL

#5 Princess Haya – first graded victory winning the G2 Canadian S. Over course last time out; class, speed figs and added distance remain concerns and make 7/2 ML an underlay in this field

#6 Look Here – hmm, a Hernando horse on FTL! The 2008 Epsom Oaks winner kept herself in the best of companies in Europe and didn’t look half-bad; distance may be too short for her and trainer’s inexperience with transatlantic shipping is a concern, but 3/1 ML looks reasonable

#7 Roses n’ Wine – only Canadian filly in the field comes of an OSS Algoma romp, but has repeatedly shown limitations in graded company

#8 Salve Germania – mind-boggling improvement when winning the Ballston Spa in her North America debut, thus hard to handicap here; this is still a major step up in class for the now Pletcher-stabled filly;

Summary:

Six European runners in a field of eight plus Princess Haya (the filly) make for more than this race’s fair share of sporting interest, but also make this another tough one to bet.
Rainbow View and Look Here are the obvious choices, but the Euro trio of Treat Gently, Eastern Aria and Lahaleeb represent better value at hard-to-believe MLs of 8/1, 12/1 and 12/1, respectively. If it wasn’t for Woodbine’s exotics takeout, this one would look like a perfect case for the dime superfecta, but with things the way they are, my tip is #1 Treat Gently, who, if coming anywhere near last fall’s form (and according to her Belmont form and workouts, she likely will) should make this one a memorable race for any across-the-board bettor. I might play a trifecta (or triactor) with some combination of her and #2 and 6 just for the hunch, takeout be damned.

Results:

First: Woodbine's morning line person had a really bad day; I've never seen MLs so far off under normal weather conditions, let alone for two major races in a row.

E P Taylor: huge upset by #3 Lahaleeb (eventually 45-1) because a) she's a pretty good horse, and b) because all of the more likely candidates got used up in an almost comical (if I hadn't had money on this race) chase after a no-hoper (#7) to fade hopelessly in the stretch.

Cdn Int'l: Won by #1 Champs Elysees, a horse I've come to memorize several years ago for his uncanny ability to find a way to lose even when he looked unbeatable, who then deviated several times before seemingly returning to his path, but who closed his career in style.
He profited from the fact that Buccellati would have won easily if aiming forward, but unfortunately wasted half his energy struggling against the jockey to get a closer look at the grandstand and was ultimately lucky to finish third.

In both races, a moderate early pace was followed by plain crazy mid-session bursts; both races were won by horses who kept out of that freak show and passed tired horses, ridiculing the "superstar jockeys" part of the whole affair.
That being said, congrats to William Buick, the young English rider who scored his first graded/group win in the E P Taylor, then made the best out of a tough ride on Buccellati.

Oh, the Humanity!

2009-10-10T07:47:00.000-07:00

More than a month has passed since my last post, but at least I have a great excuse as I was pretty occupied with putting the finishing touches on my diploma work in Social and Economic Geography. High time to get back into the game with a four-in-one post.

In fact, the only thing I’ve handicapped over the last three weeks was the German general election. This election was, however, more than just the usual opportunity to show how much we have descended mentally and morally over the course of just four years (this time we learned that Germans, as a people, are so mind-numbingly stupid as to vote the most market-liberal option into power, just one year after the neoliberal agenda completely went bankrupt - in every possible sense of that phrase). Nope, when I started reviewing the candidates (talk about a field of bottom-level claimers), it dawned on me that this election was also gonna be the greatest spot play in betting history, thanks to the fundamentally undemocratic ramifications the “overhang seats” in MMP systems can have under very specific constellations, all of them in place this time. The kicker is: no one who doesn’t have an increased interest and at least some formal training in political systems research knows about those ramifications, and that’s why I was in every bettor's dream situation with a few minutes to go until the polls closed: knowing the outcome beforehand, and getting more than 4/5 on a lock. On that note: a hearty “ha ha” to everyone who told me that a minor in Political Science would never earn me a cent (now if I could only find a 'ha ha'-reason for the same accusation concerning my other minor in Social and Economic History...).

Otherwise, living shielded from the outside world for four weeks certainly adds perspective. As in, when you return to everyday life, the whole thing just seems too outrageous to be believable.
A nobel peace prize for a guy who has (not yet, even) closed exactly one part of a giant torture camp system while letting the rest operate freely? The rest, that’s things like Bagram Prison, where according to Europe’s biggest newsweekly, Der Spiegel, the nobel peace prize winner’s army tortured a human being by (among other things) destroying his leg so many times that the coroner’s report notified its ‘gelatinous’ consistency. The fun part: when they finally tortured him to death, the prison guards were already aware that the guy was entirely innocent, and not just because there never was any actual charge. Yep, sounds like a regular second coming of Gandhi, I suppose.
What’s next? Giving humanitarian awards to amok shooters if they don’t empty their entire magazine? Parenting awards for people who vow to only beat up their infants twice a week from now on? How ‘bout an animal advocacy award for Ernie Paragallo? He chose not to starve all of his horses, after all!

Meanwhile in German racing, Baden-Baden escaped the very real threat of having to cancel their three-day October meet for shortness of funds. In the same press conference, it was announced that there will be a 2YO BBAG auction race for 200.000 € during that very meeting.
That’s right: 45K more than the standard German G1 purse, pooped out for a number of horses who, if history has told us anything, will almost certainly never amount to even G3 level. A little more perspective: most German top horses make a mere prep start or none at all as juveniles. In fact, fields are so short that many racedays don’t even include a juvenile race, and the 100K Auction race for 2yo fillies during Baden’s summer meet looked like a farce (none of the contestants warranted a fifth of that purse), but certainly turned notable when three completely green horses collided mid-stretch, leaving a seriously injured reigning jockey champion (Eddie Pedroza) in their wake. All but two of the fillies in said race have yet to break their maiden, most haven’t been close either, and not one of them has won a race since. The tragic part: the BBAG is independent of the Internationaler Club, and while the Club faces a dire future, the BBAG is alive, well and hell-bent on its mission to destroy what’s left of German racing.

Overseas, it seems like I’ve missed one more Indian Charlie controversy. Unfortunately though, the mock paper ridiculing him had about the same level of humor ("basement") as the original.
Every time I get more behind-the-scenes info about Musselman’s rag, I’m reminded of Ridicule, a French film about a nobility so infatuated with their self-amusement and shallow intrigues that everything else becomes merely a joke to them, and all their resources are wasted for the pettiest of causes. The wit of their mockery and the gamesmanship involved have an alluring quality, and it takes both the hero and the viewer some time to free themselves of it, to see the destructive effects of the nobility’s obsession with itself. In any case, the lure is strong enough that none of the “players” ever realizes how rotten the game is until it finally comes crashing down – and then it’s too late.
I think about Ridicule a lot when I think about American racing’s “nobility”. Or today’s politics, for that matter.

GP von Baden Video, Result and Trivia

2009-09-07T12:53:00.000-07:00

As promised, here's the video for yesterday's Grosser Preis von Baden, which in my opinion lived up to the hype.

To the extent that being caught on the line with Adlerflug in the last two editions can be considered a spell, trainer Jens Hirschberger has lifted it. The private trainer for Gestüt Schlenderhan* (which was primarily owned by Baronin Karin von Ullmann and is fully-owned by her son Georg after the grand lady of the German Turf passed away this spring, effectively merging the operations of both) needed all of three years to win his first GP, a long time considering he scored his first Derby within the first few months on the job.
The son of veteran trainer Peter Hirschberger, who runs a low-key (but well-respected) operation at Leipzig, Jens made a name for himself first as a moderately successful jockey, then working as a jockey manager, feed expert and assistant trainer for the likes of Andreas Schütz.

Another one to feel some vindication yesterday was jockey Adrie de Vries. Hirschberger's retained jockey (the kind of guy one likes to root for) picked the wrong mount in both the Derby and Rheinland-Pokal, and couldn't be aboard Getaway for the horse's G1 Deutschland-Preis victory either because of a prior commitment. Luckily, with the kind of quality in Hirschberger's barn, you get a fourth shot.

The Racing Post result sheet can be found here (actually my live/from memory recap was good enough, only I didn't fully notice that Getaway was actually driving away over the last furlong, which makes his performance all the more impressive)

*Did You Know: Schlenderhan was founded in 1869, the same year the first German Derby was run, and leads the way with no less than 18 blue riband wins.

Also, Did You Know that the term "Did You Know" is copyrighted. Oops!

GP von Baden Preview

2009-09-06T00:35:00.000-07:00

Why am I posting a preview for a race none of my readers (with the possible exception of Sid Fernando) cares about when I don’t even have a hot pick? To tell you the truth, I can’t fully explain it. It’s partly one of those ideas you get when returning home at six in the morning on a Sunday and aren’t even drunk, but I prefer to explain it with the joy of seeing how Germany’s most meaningful horse race has rebounded from three so-so editions with a real looker.

Baden-Baden (the name sounds just as silly in German, btw) can use it too, as the Internationaler Club is currently in bankruptcy proceedings and in dire need of a sponsor. The race will even get all of a 15-minute nationwide broadcasting slot as part of the public service’s afternoon sports lineup (which would have gone without further mention less than a decade ago, but now is enough to spawn a front page article in the racing paper). Update: burned by sloppy fact-checking (again!). Turns out the 15-minute live slot was actually a 5-minute bit later this afternoon (which would have been disappointing less than a decade ago, but now is seen as "a positive signal" by the Sport-Welt, which it actually is compared to the Derby's 11 PM slot on a regional broadcasting/cable channel).

On to the crystal ball...

Grosser Preis von Baden; 2400m; 250.000€; Group 1 for 3-y-o’s and up; 16:45 CET (1045 EST)

#1 Adelar – not very consistent, but even his best forms (such as a close second in the G2 Prix Gontaut-Biron last out) aren’t even close to winning this race

#2 Eastern Anthem – Godolphin’s Dubai Sheema Classic winner showed a nice late burst to finish third in the G1 Rheinland-Pokal, but still 2 ½ lengths behind #7 and #3; Dubai-owned challengers are always worthy of consideration for the GP though, after all Mo The Monetarily Magnificent Monarch’s Darley and Godolphin horses have won every edition of this race from 2001 to 2005 (Morshdi, Marienbard, Mamool, and twice Warrsan); Mo let his opposition take a breath for the last three years - now he's back; E.A. switches from Ajtebi to Dettori, and Flyin’ Frankie’s business trips to Germany have been nothing but frustrating this season (as were most of Godolphin’s)

#3 Getaway – lost a stretch battle of epic proportions when beaten a short head by stable companion Wiener Walzer in the Rheinland-Pokal (video below), but is once again the retained jockey’s choice. Trainer Jens Hirschberger is riding a modest 39.66% win percentage for the season being the private trainer for Georg Baron von Ullmann, who campaigns Getaway under his own silks (a mere 33.3%) and also inherited Wiener Walzer’s Gestüt Schlenderhan (a whopping 43.2%); he’s giving a kilo less to his younger companion this time and belongs into every consideration

#4 Kamsin – defending champion and last year’s Derby winner, this one hasn’t gotten up to his level this year, being decisively beaten by Getaway in his last two starts; hard to imagine a reversal, though really soft ground could go a long way.

#5 Youmzain – two-time Arc runner-up didn’t show his class when 4th in the Sheema Classic, was subsequently beaten by a nose in the G1 Coronation Cup at Epsom (a form which hasn’t held up too well, though) and finished a disappointing third in the G1 Grand-Prix de Saint-Cloud last time; still, he seems to be aimed at the Arc again and could bounce back today; Owner Jaber Abdullah also isn’t a stranger to the Grand-Prix’s trophy, having won the 1995 edition with the fittingly-named colt Germany; not sure how to interpret the choice of Kieren Fallon as a jockey

#6 Sordino – sporting one win in four lifetime starts, the 29/1 Derby runner-up came flying from far behind in every one of those starts and even has a trip excuse or two for his Hamburg performance; his trainer Waldemar Hickst recently enhanced his International prominence by winning the Ballston Spa with rather nondescript filly Salve Germania and seems to have his lot in prime condition, but a 55/10 (9/2) ML is a bit over the top; I would have preferred to see this horse at Doncaster next weekend, he absolutely strikes me as a St. Leger candidate; Update: scratched (very unfortunately, as I managed to get an incredible 16.5/1 early-market bet on him; some unique stellar constellation, and a short-lived one, obviously

#7 Wiener Walzer – If the ground is good enough and he doesn’t get scratched, the victor of the Derby as well as the above-mentioned stretch battle at Cologne may well have to make it all once again, which wouldn’t be the worst of prospects; still, he may be up for a slight setback after three hard-fought victories in as many months, adds a further kilo and switches jockeys from Fredrik Johansson to Filip Minarik, which I don’t like because Freaky Filip can be a great jockey, but is always one for a major slip in judgement, on and off the course.

(Replay of the G1 Rheinland-Pokal, August 16)

Summary:
Straight Win/Place betting for this race will be available on betfair. Unfortunately that means you can’t play the exotics, but I couldn’t confidently encourage you to play into Germany’s 30% takeout tote anyway (and now you know why Baden-Baden is bankrupt; 70% handle reduction nationwide over the last decade, and every point of it earned!)

While Saratoga is only nicknamed the “Graveyard of Champions”, the Baden Grand-Prix really has been a chalk-killer: no favorite has won it since 2000’s Samum. From 2001 to 2005 (the Sheikh Mo era) no fav even finished on the board. So, statistically, this race spells trouble for either Getaway or Wiener Walzer (both 5/2 ML), while Eastern Anthem could be another ace up Mohammed’s sleeve.

I’m taking a stand against Wiener Walzer and Youmzain (risky, but you gotta start somewhere in a wide-open field). I hope Youmzain, who is coming out of a layoff after he seemed a little tired, is primarily prepping for a big effort in the Arc, there are a couple of hints in that direction (and he's done it once before, when he finished 4th at Baden-Baden, then second to Dylan Thomas in the 2007 Arc).

Which leaves Getaway as my favorite and Eastern Anthem as a value bet (if available for 11/1+). If the pace scenario set up right for him Sordino may be worth the price.

(Image: Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger)

The World Isn't Waiting

2009-08-22T04:21:00.000-07:00

Claire Novak’s most recent article has stirred up some controversy in the racing blogosphere. Novak writes for the racing section of ESPN.com, the website of the world’s largest sports network.

One of the critical responses was by Ed DeRosa, usually one of the better turf writers. I strongly disagree with most of his article for reasons discussed there, but it’s one of the minor arguments he brought up (one I didn’t respond to on his site) which keeps coming back to my mind.

Novak’s argument for questioning the sportsmanship of Jess Jackson was, among other things, this:

“the completely ridiculous fact that reporters (and the public) had to wait for the overnight to come out to discover she would not be starting in Saturday's Alabama, one of five races listed as "under consideration" by her connections. [...] Enough cat-and-mouse. Set a date for a press conference, make up your mind, and make the announcement. That's what a true sportsman would do.”

To which DeRosa responded:

“Some have lamented that neither Jackson nor trainer Steve Asmussen publicly stated that Rachel Alexandra would not enter the Alabama Stakes, but her workout pattern clearly indicated that she would not be racing this week. For Asmussen, an easy work back followed by a bullet means a race is at least another week away. John Scheinman of the NYRA press office and trainer Mark Hennig both noticed that, so it's not like deciphering Asmussen's moves required possession of the Rosetta Stone or an advanced degree in reading tea leaves.”

It’s a revealing statement, and a representative one, I fear. If people in the racing media actually think like this, it explains a lot.

Sorry racing press, the mainstream media isn’t in the habit of reading NYRA workout summaries, or studying the subtleties of the workout patterns of the nation’s Top 50 trainers. They won’t get into that habit either. ESPN is, however, in the habit of picking the sports they deem most marketable, and sports that don’t offer information aren’t marketable.

Jackson, the man who said he bought Rachel Alexandra to broaden racing's appeal, knows that. Kendall-Jackson wine bottles include information as to the appellation, grape composition, taste characteristics etc.. Why? Because customers are unlikely to buy a blank bottle for 25$, that’s why. TV networks are in exactly the same position. As long as they have a dozen sporting events offering press kits, full access and all kinds of help, they would be stupid to instead reserve a timeslot for a sport whose protagonists don’t think they need to cooperate. No manager in his right mind will choose to broadcast races that could end up being interesting, or not; one's they don't know how to promote until three days before the event.

In other sports, locker room access is a given, any development will immediately spawn a press release. In racing, you get a post-race interview with some winning horseman with a history, who snots out a few cryptic comments about “considering five or six options for the horse’s next start”. And of course: “We want to do the best by the horse! Currently our filly thinks the Woodward purse is 500K too low”.

(Although the image on top is by a South African producer actually called “Blank Bottle”, the bottle isn’t actually blank. The pictured example is a Shiraz with 2% Viognier; from the Paarl Mountains, and characterized by “intense fruit and complexity”, according to the producer.)

Girly Jocks

2009-08-14T11:33:00.000-07:00

I’ve recently been reading the "lifestyle" section of the quite extensive website of German jockey/model Katharina Daniela Werning, after which at least two things are very clear to me:

First: I’m definitely not her type, not least because I refuse to feel bad about wearing casual clothing to any track that doesn’t include the word "Royal" somewhere in its name.

Second, she’s the kind of woman who warns newbie girls how hard it is to walk around in high heels on a racecourse, which leads her to advice that – no joke – ladies should inform their men prior to the racetrack experience that they might have to sponsor new shoes if the old ones get ruined (as a clearly superior alternative to not wearing heels). She also believes that women should put on a crown for the races in order to symbolize who’s in command, which isn’t the walking wallet to her left. Lovely!

Bottom line: if Katie would spend a little less time doing photo shootings in incomplete jockey dresses or complaining about guys who don’t pay her drinks, she probably wouldn’t be 8-for-156 for the year (5.13%, the worst percentage of all 30 jockeys with more than 100 starts).

Now, if that photo to the left doesn't say "take me seriously as a professional jockey" I don't know what does.

(Image from the Dresdner Morgenpost of July 24)

That Pesky Class Bias

2009-08-07T03:36:00.000-07:00

Yesterday I read the following sentences in an otherwise interesting post on the West Points blog: "Last year, not one horse who had been campaigning on dirt won any of the traditional Breeders’ Cup dirt races. NOT ONE HORSE."

It was the second time I read this argument, and got me intrigued enough to spend the next two hours reviewing last year’s BC Pro-Ride races in search of the bigger picture as to how those horses with a dirt-centric career fared. A fun task that perfectly accommodated my advanced horseracing geekiness, so here it is:

F&M Sprint:
Indian Blessing and Ventura were the only reasonable candidates. Indian Blessing came from a NY dirt campaign but went on to win the La Brea at SA after the BC. Her forms looked impressive then, but less so in hindsight. You don’t need the Pro-Ride to explain why she ultimately fell to classy turf miler Ventura. Third-placed Zaftig delivers further arguments that I.B. didn’t run a bad race (she had been beaten a few lengths by her before). Intangaroo (6th) had most of her best forms on the dirt, but synthetics should have suited her running style, and she had won the Santa Monica over SA’s old Cushion Track.

Juvenile Fillies:
Cal-based Stardom Bound dominated this division all summer. Runner-up Dream Empress seems to have been more of an art-surf horse, although she did break her maiden at Saratoga. The third and fifth-place finisher (Sky Diva and Persistently) came out of classic Dirt campaigns and their result matches perfectly with what could have been expected had this race been run on the dirt. That leaves 7th-placed C.S. Silk, who did indeed disappoint, but her subsequent dirt forms weren’t any better (in fact she hasn’t won any of her 5 starts since the BC, four of them on dirt)

Distaff:
Cocoa Beach had made all but one of her previous 10 career starts on the dirt, but coming within 1½ lengths of Zenyatta, she was hardly a victim of the Pro-Ride. Music Note (3rd) is a similar case. 4th-placed Carriage Trail had an affinity for Keeneland’s Polytrack which didn’t seem to help at OSA. Which leaves 6th-placed Ginger Punch, a pure dirt horse until then, but the defending f&m champ was on a downward spiral since July (and her 10/1 line suggests she wasn’t really a disappointment).

Marathon:
One of the weakest fields ever to be seen in a 500K was eventually topped by Muhannak, whose underwhelming best forms came from the Polytracks of the Old World, although he had also won on turf. Muhannak went on to prove that he was equally undeserving of BC-winner status on the turfs of Sha Tin and Goodwood, with his only acceptable post-BC form coming from Dubai’s dirt. Delightful Kiss was the only contender with a dirt-centric past, but his 4th place wasn’t really below expectations. The most disappointing favorite of the entire BC was Sixties Icon, who struggled home 5th in this race. He’s a turf horse.

Dirt Mile:
Winner Albertus Maximus came with an artsy past, but his two post-BC starts were on the dirt, where he Wonn The Donn and placed sixth in the Dubai World Cup. Third-placed SoCal longshot Two Step Salsa also had some dirty fun at NAS after the BC, winning both starts. Lewis Michael (8th) was one of two disappointments, but he too had his best performances to the sound of the synth. The other disappointment was Well Armed, who went on to dominate the Dubai World Cup, but was the favorite for winning the Goodwood over Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride (I guess he would do better on very speed-favoring dirt, but his trainer doesn’t seem to). My Pal Charlie (4th) and Pyro (6th) were the two dirt-campaign runners, and neither disappointed.

Juvenile:
10th-place Munnings might superficially look like he was hampered by the Pro-Ride, but then again his far-beaten runner-up performance in the Champagne was hardly astonishing if reviewed in hindsight and nothing suggests that he particularly disliked the surface. Apart from him, no dirt horses took part.

Sprint:
Actually, Mr West and Co. may have to reconsider their premise! While winner Midnight Lute had run a dismal performance in his only other race of last year over Del Mar's Polytrack, the majority of his top performances (including his wins in the previous BC Sprint at Monmouth and the 2007 Forego) were on the dirt.
It’s easy to miss that fact when you concentrate on dirty guy Fabulous Strike (7/1), whose 5th place finish is as close as last year’s BC got to a disappointing performance by a dirt-campaigned horse (he was beaten by only one horse, 8/1 In Summation, with minimally longer odds).

Classic:
I don’t think I need to explain for the hundredth time how Curlin’s performance was not a huge surprise to anyone with some basic handicapping skills. Everyone who still doesn’t want to recognize this because “Tiago could never beat Curlin” has other issues, obviously. And is a complete hypocrite if they don’t also claim that “Smooth Air could never beat Duke Of Marmalade”. DoM was clearly a better horse, but just as clearly out-of-form. Eventually, last year’s BC was decided in a battle of giants between two of the world’s best horses.
Smooth Air (7th) and Fairbanks (10th) were the other two dirtsters in the field, neither was a victim of the “plastic”.

Conclusion:
All in all, there is very little basis to argue that Pro-Ride was a major factor behind last year’s BC results. In any case it was a much smaller factor than the West Coast setting of Santa Anita, which kept many of the top East Coast horses away. One might argue that the "not one horse who had been campaigning on dirt won any of the traditional Breeders’ Cup dirt races"- sentence is technically correct, it is. But it's used as an argument on this occasion, and therefor the more important thing is: the implication of this sentence is wrong.
There's no reason to believe that it's impossible or even considerably harder to win a Pro-Ride BC with a horse that has been exclusively campaigned on dirt. It's just that hardly anyone has tried it, and those who did fell short for other reasons. There's also no reason to believe that Pro-Ride is any more of a factor in handicapping than speed bias, rail bias or sloppy track. It's a factor, but not an unfair one.

The fact is: if one doesn't like Pro-Ride for another reason, that’s fine. If you think Pro-Ride ruined last year’s BC: start looking for a better argument.

Oh, and if you happen to constantly find the need to attack this surface as a fundamentally unfair and (for whatever unexplained reason) dangerous type of “plastic” just because you’re willing to say anything rather than come to grips with a disillusion: go open a bottle of wine, lean back, start thinking, and shut the fuck up!

World's Weirdest Racetracks: The Original One, or two

2009-07-26T21:01:00.000-07:00

In the beginning, the Lords spoketh: "let there be three". But so it didn’t quite come to pass.

According to a 1740 parliament directive, British thoroughbred racing was to be limited to the three most important racecourses of the time:

The first one, located on the Knavesmire moor in York, continues to stage top-class race meetings in May and August, with a number of quality racedays held throughout the season.

The second one, Hambleton, is used as a minor training center to this day. Its location right on top of Sutton Bank in North Yorkshire ultimately proved too impractical for a racecourse, but at least today's workout riders can enjoy one of the best panoramas of any training center in the world.

The third one is known as the seat of The Jockey Club and remains one of the most prestigious on Earth - Newmarket Racecourse.

Fortunately the Lords didn’t explain the “only three”-part quite as extensively as Monty Python later would, and therefor it was never really heeded - or enforced, for that matter.

Newmarket’s claim to the title of oldest racecourse in the world is controversial, but its pivotal role in the development of modern thoroughbred racing isn’t. Starting in the 17th century, the town became home to Britain's most important racing and training center, its very name a synonym for excellence on the turf.

Much less appreciated, but no less stunning, are Newmarket’s contributions in the field of racetrack weirdness, where it remains #1:

(Image from the great tbheritage.com site)

What’s commonly known as Newmarket Racecourse is actually two courses, consisting of nothing more than three long straights, one of which they share.

The best-known of the three is Rowley Mile, which – as you would assume from the World’s Weirdest Racetrack – isn’t actually a mile. It’s ten furlongs long, narrowly edging out Maisons-Laffitte’s 2000-meter straight for the title (Maisons-Laffitte, btw, deserves a honorable mention as WWR #11, mainly on the merits of having three winning posts at different points of a strangely-shaped course). The Rowley Mile’s most famous feature is The Dip, created by a downhill penultimate furlong and a rather steep climb for the final one.

Races over distances of more than 10f start on the Cambridgeshire Course, another straight of a full mile which owes its name to the fact that it starts and ends in the namesake county - the turn into the Rowley Mile occurs exactly on the border of Cambridgeshire and Suffolk. From June to August, no racing is conducted in Suffolk, but there is still racing at Newmarket Racecourse. Horses and jockeys just make a sharper turn a little before the end of the Cambridgeshire Course and enter straight number three – the July Course.

Another straight of a mile, the July Course has its own stands and paddock area, which are located to the South of the track, facing the Rowley Mile’s. So even though both straights are run from West to East, the Rowley Mile runs clockwise while the July Course is run counter-clockwise. This layout also makes the July Course the only track in the world where half the course is actually outside the grandstand’s field of view.

Not that patrons are missing anything they could see from the Rowley Mile’s grandstand. After all, even very good binoculars don’t help much when watching a 20-strong field head-on with nine furlongs to go. And you can’t see anything before they enter the stretch either, because most of the Cambridgeshire Course is hidden behind the estate of the National Stud.

"There is no race course in the whole of the world like Newmarket. It is a severe course from the easiest five-eighths to the severest two miles. There is no horse who does not stay who will win any race there. That is what stamps the mark on any horse that wins at Newmarket. It stands to reason that Newmarket makes a heavy call upon all the art that a jockey possesses - the nursing of a two-year-old, the judgment of pace, the different gradients, the knowledge of the mount under you, whether to take the lead an eighth from home or wait to got your advantage till you are on the post"

The quote above is out of a May 3, 1919 article in the DRF, as stated by “Brownie” Carslake, an Australian jockey who after establishing himself in his native country became one of the best jockeys to ride in Britain. Carslake’s bigger point was that Australian (and North American) tracks are build with the interest of the spectators in mind, while English racecourses were designed to bring out the best in horses and horsemen. He was arguably right on both counts.

Newmarket Racecourse is at the same time the best and the worst in the world. The best track for champion racehorses and jockeys to compete against each other, and the worst track for spectators to witness them doing so. It's, in short, the World's Weirdest Racetrack.

("I think the 3 horse is a head in front with a mile to go"; Panoramio images by Footix [above] and Jonathan W [top])

World's Weirdest Racetracks: #2

2009-07-26T00:12:00.000-07:00

Combining the spirit, and spirits, of an apres-ski party with the slightly (okay, decidedly) elitist posh of old-style spa racing, Switzerland’s most important racecourse is neither turf nor dirt; and it’s not an artificial surface either. Races at St. Moritz Racecourse are run on snow, which itself is covering the frozen surface of a lake.

So there may not be much potential for a St. Moritz Racecourse "Midsummer racing at the Spa" meeting, but the track’s three racedays in February, labeled the "White Turf", are singular in the world of racing. As is the concept of conducting thoroughbred races on a frozen lake.

Due to its location at 1822 meters (5.978 ft.) above sea level, in the middle of the Swiss Alps, the surface can usually be counted on to support runners and racegoers - the grandstand is on the lake, too. Nevertheless, racedays have occasionally been shortened and parts of the grandstand have remained closed off if the ice was getting a little thin.

Conducting upper-class events on the frozen lake fits in with several of the towns other sporting highlights such as the Polo World Cup on Snow, which uses the same grandstand, and the Cricket On Ice tournament.

St. Moritz's feature event, the 121.121 Swiss Francs (about 105k$) Grosser Preis von St. Moritz, regularly attracts a number of quality horses from other European countries. Racing at this traditional Alpine winter resort offers by far the highest purses in Switzerland, and the Grand-Prix is also the country's most valuable race, beating the only other noteworthy race (the Swiss Derby at Frauenfeld) by 21.121 Francs.

Besides Thoroughbred racing, other disciplines contested are harness trotting (with skates instead of wheels) and Skijoering, a horse-drawn ski racing discipline of Scandinavian origin. St. Moritz's White Turf races are one of the most important societal events in Switzerland.

(Skijoering is a sport for people who wanted to be harness drivers but couldn't afford the sulky and can't get their horses to remain trotting; images by Heinz Schmid)

World's Weirdest Racetracks: #3

2009-07-25T00:20:00.000-07:00

There is a certain kind of humor in the fact that Equidaily, whom I owe a big "thank you" for being a major factor behind the spike in readership this WWR Top 10 got, yesterday replaced the link to this series with links to a video and photos of the Duhner Wattrennen, a mixed card of harness and thoroughbred racing held at low tide on the Wadden Sea, the tidal flats of the German North Sea coast. Even more props for linking to this outstanding photo of a mudflats harness race in the rain.

The funny thing is, I almost posted today’s WWR bronze medal winner yesterday, as #4, and the only reason I ever considered ranking it outside the Top 3 was the very existence of said Duhner Wattrennen at Cuxhaven. That annual event, which includes a few extremely low-level thoroughbred races, is after all the only reason to consider #3 not entirely unique. The fact that the Duhner thoroughbred races aren’t supervised by the German Racing Board and don’t count into conditions and allowances for professional racing makes them a borderline case, and was the deciding factor for making today’s entry the #3, mentioning the Cuxhaven event only on the side.

There is only one place in Europe where official races “under the rules of racing” are held on a beach: Laytown, Ireland (and strictly speaking, the Wadden Sea is a part of the sea, not the beach). On the shore of the Irish Sea, the famous Laytown Strand Races have been held annually since 1876.

Only six races are held per raceday, one less than usual in Ireland. Post times vary based on track availability, which means low-tide. A seventh race would actually turn into an aquatic event (then again, why not – after all some European steeplechases include swimming through a small lake as part of the course). Even so, the sea will often leak into the course, and track conditions can be counted on to be "sloppy" or "muddy" for most of the track, most of the time. One interesting debate amongst bettors is the draw bias at Laytown, which statistically favors inside posts. Others have denied that logic, pointing out that the rails and markers are dismantled after the last race, and thus one year's seaside rail can be where last year's standside was.

Until 1994, some races would lead from the Winning Post to the 7-furlong mark and back, but complications that year have forced the racing club to cancel those. Only races of up to 7f have been run since.

The quality of horses is understandably limited, but unlike Cuxhaven, it's professional racing, with tote betting, bookmakers and everything that makes racedays in Ireland great. Every year, hundreds of overseas visitors will make their way to what incidentally is Ireland’s only dirt track for their early September fixture.

As mentioned, Laytown Racecourse is a non-permanent facility for the most part. Rails, posts and the concessions and amenities facilities necessary to accomodate Laytown’s about 10.000 patrons are dismantled every year. Most of the grandstand remains on-site though, given that it consists of little more than some steps carved into the dunes of County Meath.

A short flyover clip over the Laytown straight course can be seen here.

Things to listen out for if betting the races at Laytown or Cuxhaven:

(Flickr image at the top is by PaulWa, out of an album about the 2008 Laytown Races)

World's Weirdest Racetracks: #4

2009-07-24T03:02:00.000-07:00

Of the features that set the freak show that is British racecourses apart from the rest of the world in the "national team" category, this beauty’s got it all: straights, loops, undulations, multiple directions to run in; and the quality races to show off what it's got. But expectations are high at the very top of the WWR Top 10, and while all the effort put in is certainly admirable, Goodwood Racecourse lacks that special touch of extra eccentricity that would push it into the medal ranks.

There is nothing wrong with the quality of racing, which is good on any given raceday, and top-notch during the five days of Glorious Goodwood (starting next Tuesday). The course consists of a six-furlong straight and easily the most unique loop of any track in the world, with chutes, alternative routes and shortcuts all over the place. The 2-mile Goodwood Cup gets an extra point for being run without a starting gate, and starting mid-turn.

Goodwood’s racing history dates back to the year 1800, when the 5th Duke of Richmond allowed members of the Sussex militia to conduct Gentlemen’s races on his premises at Goodwood House (which is actually more than a mile away, but Dukes have a different understanding of the word "backyard"). From 1801 on the public was allowed to attend these races and the track quickly established itself among Southern England’s finest, despite a certain tendency to be covered in fog from the nearby coast on racedays. Ownership of both the estate and racecourse has remained with the Dukes to this day. Over the last decades, it has become one of the more innovative of British racecourses, building a modern grandstand and being one of the first to twin with another club: Oak Tree (the reason for the Goodwood Stakes at OSA and the G3 Oak Tree Stakes during Glorious Goodwood).
WWR Fun For Nuts:
The weirdness of Goodwood Racecourse is in the course layout and details. Comparing the 2 graphics above (which I callously stole from gambling-guru.com and equineinvestments.co.uk, respectively), try to figure out the route horses have to take for every distance!

WWR Quiz:
Find out which of the two images is wrong, and why!
(If that's not enough for you, the layout in the Hamilton Park chapter also includes two mistakes, both hinted at in the text).

(Image on top is a Picasa image by John)

World's Weirdest Racetracks: #5

2009-07-22T23:18:00.000-07:00

Named after the first regular horse racing venue in Paris, this is the only racecourse on Mauritius, a remote island in the Indian Ocean. Almost by default, this makes it the most important track within a radius of more than 1000 miles.

It would also be the most remote racecourse in the world if it wasn’t for the couple of (amateur) racedays held on Madagascar. With 787 square miles of area (less than a quarter the size of Rhode Island) and topped by a steep peak, plain land is scarce on the island, which required the Mauritius Turf Club to build this one-of-a-kind racecourse. One of the smallest turf racetracks in the world, Champ de Mars is only 1200 meters in circumference and so squeezed in between residential zones that there only was room for an extremely thin grandstand.

Racing is usually conducted every Saturday afternoon from April to December, and is the most popular sport in the nation. Because attendance numbers are far in excess of the grandstand’s capacity, the track's infield looks like Pimlico’s during the Preakness even for the most pedestrian of cards. On major racedays virtually every inch of the infield is packed with either parking cars or fanatical fans, some of whom can't possibly be able to watch the race from their position. All of this combines to add one of the most impressive atmospheres in world racing to an already weird racetrack.

Mauritius doesn’t have a breeding industry of its own, most of the horses are SAF-breds. In fact, most or all of the 13 trainers currently listed on the MTC’s website are imports too.

Extra points are awarded for a passionate racecaller who delivers with a trademark Mauritian Creole dialect and an equally passionate audience, all of it combining to make racing on Mauritius a unique experience and sort of a traditional start into Saturday’s racing for European bettors, who are treated with the Mauritius simulcast before British racing starts.

Watch the 2006 edition of the Indian Ocean's most prestigious race, the Maiden Cup (which is not a Mdn race).

World's Weirdest Racetracks: #6

2009-07-22T05:44:00.000-07:00

While the vast majority of the WWR Top 10 was selected for the physical features of the track itself, today’s candidate qualifies on accumulated weirdness, on the premises and in the area surrounding it.

Happy Valley Racecourse was opened in 1864 on what was the only plain on Hong Kong Island (Sha Tin, opened in 1978, is located in the New Territories on the Asian mainland). Racedays are held on most Wednesday nights during the season, a concept HK introduced several decades before CDI had that “stroke of genius”. Another aspect worth copying is HK racing's integrity system, based on tough stewards, full disclosure of pretty much all aspects of a horse's record and a no-tolerance doping policy.

As to our topic, Hong Kong is a really weird country, or self-governing Special Administrative Zone, to be precise. It has a unitary administration (meaning there are no local or regional councils), and most of the settlements are primarily consisting of skyscrapers. With 16.380 inhabitants per square mile, it’s statistically the fourth-most densely populated jurisdiction in the world (UK: 640; US: 80), yet only 17% of the country are settlements, and there are vast uninhabited mountain ranges, dozens of islands and a couple of remote villages you would rather expect to find in Vietnam or Malaysia. As a unitary authority, it’s formally a city-state, but in practice it consists of a number of separate cities (HK City, Kowloon, Sha Tin etc.).

HK racing and gambling are unitary, too, with the HKJC managing both tracks, all OTBs, licensing and even buying the mostly Down Under-bred horses which are then re-sold to HK owners. It also has a de jure gambling monopoly (which includes betting on football), although there are several illegal and semi-legal alternatives, and the casinos of Macao are within easy reach for HK residents. Officially a non-profit company, HKJC is the country’s biggest tax-payer and second-most important sponsor of public projects (behind the state itself).

Happy Valley has an average attendance of more than 17.000 and a capacity of about 55.000 in one of the world’s most impressive grandstands, yet not a single stakes race is run there. Since the opening of Sha Tin, all pattern races are run at the larger track, where Hong Kong’s stables and training centers also are situated (click here for a look behind the scenes of the HKJC, including one of the most unique stable areas in the world).

As the only plain area in HK City, Happy Valley’s infield is packed with playing fields and small stadiums, the most important being HKFC Stadium with a capacity of 2.500. From 1976 to 1981 HKFC Stadium was home of the Hong Kong Sevens (Rugby Union) Tournament, which grew into the world’s most important Sevens Cup.

Hong Kong shows how racing CAN be a healthy industry and interesting sport in our time. It’s a weird track, but one to learn from.

(Hollywood Park is in the process of making way for low-rises in a poor neighborhood; Happy Valley is in no danger while being located in this one.)

(Wikimedia Commons image by Minghong; image at the top is a Picasa image by Kurt)

World's Weirdest Racetracks: #7

2009-07-20T21:57:00.000-07:00

Even though it's far too well known as one of the world’s weirdest racedays to retain much of the spirit that originally characterized the event; the setting and iconic status of the place should ensure that it remains a unique one for decades to come, even if in a totally different way.

This annual event, first held in 1882, doesn't bear much resemblance to its early days anymore, or even to what it was two decades ago, when it was still largely an authentic Outback festival. The famous Birdsville Races have pretty much become “Royal Ascot meets Spring Break meets Burning Man” by now. Not many of the 5.000 visitors who make their way to this 120-inhabitant village, otherwise best known as the first re-entry into something remotely resembling civilization for travelers crossing the Simpson Desert, are from nearby towns (or whatever nearby means in an area where postmen deliver by plane and the average farm is bigger than some European countries).

The racetrack itself has basically remained the same tough, an oval route through the desert (talk about an original Dirt Track!), ending at a winning post that seems randomly-placed, somewhere in the overwhelming vastness of the Outback's Great Big Nothing.

Not so well known is the fact that Birdsville is merely the first of three stages for the Simpson Desert Racing Carnival. For an experience that more closely resembles the original Birdsville, the other two stages - Bedourie (where the focus is just as much on rodeo and camel racing) and the “family-oriented” Betoota, - are certainly better alternatives. As are other Outback racedays like the ones at Cloncurry, McKinlay or Boulia (all in Queensland).

Make no mistake though, Australia has for the last few decades been more radical than any other country in selling out every bit of its sporting heritage for the almighty AUS$, which means that any of those that you hear about for the third time has probably lost much of its appeal by then. For the purpose of the WWR however, there’s no denying that precisely this over-the-top kind of joyful larrikinism is what sets Birdsville apart from the other Outback racedays (and for all parties involved, let's hope it stays that way).

Watch this clip for a decidedly touristy and kitschy account of what has become a decidedly touristy and kitschy raceday.

A better account, albeit with lower-quality footage can be found on youtube.

("Downtown Birdsville scene", although presenting Birdsville as an isolated cowboy - or jackaroo - community is a pillar of most articles about the raceday, the village's economy is actually tourism-based all year; Panoramio images by Jonathan Berry and A2thaMFK [top])

World's Weirdest Racetracks: #8

2009-07-20T00:11:00.000-07:00

If ever there was a region tailor-made for horse racing, it’s Yorkshire. This Northern England (ceremonial) county has the gentle hills, vast countryside and soils that just scream “build a grandstand, paddock and some rails here, or at least a stud farm and gallops”. Not surprisingly, it was one of the cradles of modern thoroughbred racing, and remains a stronghold for thoroughbred racing, training and breeding.

For a detailed history of racing in Yorkshire, this great site (one of my all-time favorites) offers everything you need to know, and then some. Other Yorkshire contributions to sports history: Sheffield is home to the world’s oldest Association football (Soccer) clubs, while industrial West Yorkshire was the birthplace of Rugby League.

Today, Yorkshire offers the highest racecourse concentration of any British county, ranging from top-level tracks York and Doncaster to the charms of small-town racecourses such as Thirsk, Catterick or the WWR’s #8.

While it may not look like a true World’s Weirdest Racetracks contender at first glance, the beauty of Pontefract Racecourse is in the dimensions. It’s home to the world’s longest regular flat Hcp race, the 2m 5f 122y Pontefract Marathon Hcp (held in April) as well as probably the only remaining track in the world to frequently schedule lower-level races over 18 furlongs. In a way it has to, given that the course itself is also the world’s largest thoroughbred racetrack. Thanks to a circumference of no less than two miles, the entire town park fits into its infield. Extra points are awarded for the unusual feature that the stretch is barely half as long as two other straights (it’s still slightly longer than 2 furlongs).

("I really wouldn’t want to be the track announcer on a foggy day"; Panoramio image by Lee Collings, not even showing the full extent of the Pontefract infield)

World's Weirdest Racetracks: #9

2009-07-19T04:38:00.000-07:00

This Glasgow area racecourse demonstrates how you can effectively cram a track into just about any location, even if there really doesn’t seem to be enough space, or suitable terrain. It’s not technically featuring a unique layout since Salisbury (a few hundred miles to the South) uses a similar one, but Salisbury’s is larger, and its uphill stretch pales by comparison.

One of five racecourses in Scotland, Hamilton Park is the only one to exclusively conduct flat racing (Perth and Kelso are National Hunt courses, Musselburgh and Ayr offer both modes). In 1947, Hamilton conducted the first evening meeting in British racing, now a staple of British and Irish racing during the summer months. In 1971, it also premiered morning racing, which was not picked up as a regular feature.

(Graphic from gambling-guru.com)

Basically, this 18th century racecourse is nothing more than a six-furlong straight, with a loop near one end of it. Undulations are hefty even by British standards, the 6f start is at 61 meters above sea level, dropping to a low point of 47m, then uphill to 58m about hundred yards in front of the Winning Post (which is at 56m). The loop is even more extreme, going downhill from 48m to 38m, then steeply uphill until it joins the straight course at a height of 59m (measured using Google Earth, so it might be off by a meter or two).

This layout allows races of up to 13 furlongs, with those over the maximum distance actually starting some way in front of the winning post, going up the stretch, through the dip in the loop, up the hill and then back down the stretch.

For races over a distance of 11 furlongs and beyond, this layout means trouble whenever a horse unseats their jockey at the start. For the purposes of the World’s Weirdest Racetracks, it means #9.

World's Weirdest Racetracks: #10

2009-07-18T03:55:00.000-07:00

Thoroughbred racecourses have been used for any number of events over the years. Until the 1940s, football matches were frequently played at British racecourses. In Cup competitions small-town teams would take advantage of the existing large grandstand and even larger amount of quality lawn. The site of the world’s first International football match, the Racecourse Ground at Wrexham (Wales), was a regular venue for Cricket, Horse Racing, Association Football (Soccer) and Rugby in its early days.

To this day, several modes of racing are often conducted at the same track. In France, New Zealand and a few other countries it’s common for provincial tracks to host harness and thoroughbred racing on the same card.

Another combination is that of motorsports and horse racing. Aintree, site of the Grand National Steeplechase, is also home to some amateur motor racing. Dover Downs in Delaware would be a lock for a World’s Ugliest Raceways Top 10, but is ineligible for this list.

There are however two Southern Hemisphere racecourses that are host to both Thoroughbred and major-league Auto racing. One is Australia’s Sandown, by far the least important of Melbourne’s four designated metropolitan tracks, which also hosts races of the V8 Supercars series. The second one, host of the only V8 race in New Zealand, is the WWR #10.

Pukekohe Park is home to Counties Racing Club (which refers to Counties Manukau, a semi-official designation for the Southern part of Auckland Region). Its most important race is the G2 Counties Cup, held in late November. Due to its inside all-weather training course, Pukekohe also functions as one of New Zealand’s foremost training centers.

For the purposes of our Top 10, it gets the nod over Sandown because of the decidedly utilitarian appearance of the whole plant, with the pit lane area along most of the stretch and the infield training tracks as eyesores, compared to Sandown’s infield lake and meadows.

Being surrounded by an asphalt circuit, the racecourse at Pukekohe might not be the prettiest place to watch the ponies, but it definitely is a notable one.

("The racecourse must be somewhere around here"; Panoramio image by Rameez Saldin)

World's Weirdest Racetracks Top 10: Intro

2009-07-18T03:40:00.000-07:00

I decided not to spend many lines on smartmouthing about the sad but predictable news racing offered those past two weeks (Ziadie, Hollywood etc.); bitching about the easy targets (e.g. how Shirreffs’ #2 horse contested the Hollywood Gold Cup, while his HOTY candidate has her eyes on the big prize – the Clem Hirsch at DM) or about how American racing officials, for once trying to be tough on doping, do it in such an objectionable manner as to find the only course of action that makes them look even worse than their usual sweep-it-under-the-carpet ways.

Instead of focusing on the madness, I have chosen to concentrate on weirdness for the next ten days or so. In this spirit, let me proudly present my personal Worlds’ Weirdest Racecourses Top 10 ranking, compiled by the staff of The Dresden File.

As with any good ranking, let’s start by stating the guidelines used to assemble this list:

1. This Top 10 ranks racetracks by weirdness of the course(s). It is neutral towards a course’s beauty (or lack thereof) as long as they offer truly remarkable features.

2. Physical features trump atmosphere. The reason is largely a practical one: I can only guess at the atmosphere of candidates. In some cases, I can’t even do that. For example, it’s entirely possible that tracks such as N’Djamena (Chad) or the Hippodrome de Beyrouth in Lebanon (heavily damaged by Israeli rockets during several attempts to establish peace by killing civilians) would out-weird some of those on the list had unique atmosphere counted equally, but I have nothing to base such judgments on, and considering the worldwide scope of this ranking, I doubt anyone has.

3. Only tracks that offer halfways professional thoroughbred flat racing are eligible. They can of course offer other modes of racing too, but there’s gotta be a minimum of common ground. As tempting as it is to place those countryside roads and farm lanes used for the Kiplingcotes Derby at #1, I feel there needs to be a clear line, after all there also are endurance races run in the Sahara.

4. A quality racing product is a plus, but not required.

So without further ado...

BC Thoughts – The Juvie Turf Is A Bad Idea Now, But It Doesn’t Have To Stay That Way

2009-07-11T14:27:00.000-07:00

As I was typing up a rather lenghty response to a post by Glenn Craven, trying to find some middle ground between our opinions, a quite radical idea popped into my mind.

Craven (of Fugue For Tinhorns, for those who don’t know) argues that the Breeders Cup shouldn’t cut down on its current 14-race program (or 15, including the Grand National). I disagree for the most part, but one good argument he brought up was that the BC, initially intended primarily as a North American Championship, should indeed include races for every division, even obscure ones.

On the other hand, the BC is also intended to attract more interest to the sport, and has a somewhat unhealthy focus on presenting itself as a “World Championship” (a pointless focus, as I’ve argued elsewhere). To that end, races like the Juvenile Turf divisions rightfully attract ridicule, and races like the Dirt Mile or F&M Sprint are just diminishing the quality of the BC’s real Championship races. They thin out the quality, provide the Discreet Cats of this world a chance to add a BC win to their resume without actually facing Championship opponents; and ultimately water down the prestige of the BC as a whole.

The same was true for the 12f Marathon, although at its new 14f distance, I find that race a most welcome addition. See, I’m not generally against using such races to encourage a shift in the breeding industry, I just don’t see much reason to encourage a shift towards the breeding of more turf horses with premature and/or sprint-oriented pedigrees in America. Plus, a 14f dirt BC Marathon still is an international "championship quality" race, if only because Argentina, Chile and Uruguay are the only other racing jurisdictions with a heart for the dirt stayer.

Still, Mr Craven has a point that there should be Championship races for the Turf Sprint and Turf Juvenile divisions.

But should those races be run in their current form, as part of the BC?

The Juvenile Turf races as contested last year are a joke. They will more often than not be won by second- or third-string overseas raiders, or occasionally by a top American (dirt) juvenile with a strong turf pedigree, whose connections decide to skip the more testing “real” BC Juvenile divisions. Same goes for the BC Turf Sprint.

However, such Championship races could make sense outside the current BC structure. In the process they could offer the first-ever productive application of the “Win & You’re In”-concept in racing, and finally offer a good idea to fill the BC Friday.

How about running those races as Finals, open only to horses that have qualified via the currently existing, regionally-focused, juvenile turf races?

Those races would be closed off to overseas competition, except if they go through the qualification process, effectively eliminating the “quick hit” option. They could be included in the main BC program or run independently of it as part of a separate Championship day, one more geared towards existing racing fans. If run on Grand National day (on another track, obviously) there might even be potential for some cross-promotion.

Unlike the current, haphazard BC W&YI, this concept could be effective in both increasing the status of the qualifiers and in creating buzz for the final. The main difference being that there is an actual connection between the elims and the final, other than in the “random races to determine 6 of 12 starters, effectively meaning top horses can just as well skip”-system the BC currently offers. This way, divisions and races that otherwise go largely unnoticed might gain some buzz within the racing world. I'm usually not a fan of playoff systems in the thoroughbred world, but in this instance it might be just the right thing.
Also, this concept provides an American Championship in a division in which American horses, generally speaking, aren’t very competitive in International company. Thus, it would be much more effective as a stimulus. Another perk would be that horsemen with top (dirt) horses couldn’t as easily use the Turf BC as a fallback option, so the extra race wouldn’t take away from the established one.

German Derby - Before And After

2009-07-05T07:59:00.000-07:00

The biggest news from Europe this weekend may be Sea The Stars’ victory in yesterday’s Eclipse Stakes at Sandown, but with the start of the 2009 Deutsches Derby at Hamburg less than an hour away, let’s get to that point.

Before:

For the second time this year I drove through half the city just to find that those newsstands that usually sell the Sport-Welt (Germany’s DRF) were sold out. While last time I was fortunate enough to finally discover a hidden exemplar somewhere beneath another stack, this time I went home empty-handed.
So there seems to be a bit of excitement in racing circles. That German racing adds some new fans is unlikely though, as the race isn’t broadcast until 11 PM, and then only on a regional channel (there is the Equi8 livestream of course, but to the broader public the race is lost). It’s not helpful that the Sport-Welt doesn’t even have a website, nor is there any other site to get German race forms from, so ultimately I could only have handicapped based on those extremely sketchy forms my ADW’s offer, and that’s not something I like to do.

Therefor, let’s just say it’s a pretty wide-open field, with Wiener Walzer, Oriental Lion and Panyu (the 1-2-3 finishers of the G2 Union-Rennen), Suestado (impressive winner of the Listed Derby Trial at Hanover), G3 Bavarian Classic winner Saphir and G2 Diana Trial runner-up Bolivia (who was supplemented for 50K) the obvious candidates. Of those, Suestado may well be the best, but he's also the chalk at 52/10 (that's 4/1 American). Update: He was eventually bet down to 39/10, which I think would show up as 5/2 on American ADWs.

With my sketchy info though, I’ll confine myself to a couple of small longshot bets on Ordenstreuer, who finished a good second in the Dresden Trial. That race was predictably several furlongs too short for him, but his late movement was nice, and for 60/1 (betfair, currently 32/1 on the Tote), he looks worth the shot.

In the sire category, Monsun leads the way with 3 of his progeny entered. Tiger Hill, Nayef and Seattle Dancer all have two starters in the field of 17.

After:

With 100 yards to go, right after he declared the winner, the announcer’s mic took a temporary break. Or at least that’s what he claims. Sounded a bit like he just had trouble identifying the group of three battling for second place. If so, no reason to be tough on the guy.

Wiener Walzer (by Dynaformer), the second favorite at 46/10 and winner of the most important Derby Trial, won, but that’s as far as it goes in the “logical result” column.

Sordino (296/10; by Samum) finished second in his fourth lifetime start, showing off some well-hidden talent (you see, that’s what good past performance sheets and replays are for, if only we had them in German racing).

Toughness Danon (179/10; by Tiger Hill) finished third, and thus exactly one position worse than in all of his previous three starts, where he was soundly beaten by two horses he distanced today.

One horse he did finish ahead of however was today’s fourth-place finisher Eliot (137/10, also by Tiger Hill), who in his three lifetime starts (recurring theme!) had never finished better than 2nd and had been beaten by no less than four horses he outran today (to be fair, his forms were a little screwball-y, and in the Union-Rennen he was fifth but beaten only 2 ½ lengths by the winner).

Ordenstreuer, btw, finished a good sixth under the guidance of Dresden’s local boy Alexander Pietsch. He wasn't beaten by much, but may have been in a little over his head here. Still, he's definitely a nice and honest racehorse and should make his way in slightly lesser company.

Besides the winner, none of the favorites showed up. Suestado (39/10, by Monsun) finished 14th, thus never quite entering the internal duel, and leaving his owner Georg Baron von Ullmann only the small consolation of also being the owner of Gestüt Schlenderhan, which in turn is the owner of Wiener Walzer.

Deutsches Derby 2009 (with a couple of glitches, but at least it's available at all)

BC Thoughts - Early Edition

2009-06-26T05:51:00.001-07:00

Whatever you think of Jess Jackson’s decision not to run Rachel Alexandra in this year’s Breeders Cup, or of his tirade against synthetic surfaces (my take: there is a distinct smell of "sore loserism" lingering in the air), the one thing we should agree upon is that his argumentation was disingenuous.

Those types of "plastic" are too different from each other? “Man interfering with nature”? You might wanna take a closer look on that Churchill surface, it’s not your average mid-Kentucky soil either, nor is it identical to the surfaces at Gulfstream or Belmont. Mr Jackson, after all, has become a billionaire “interfering with nature”, as in artificially creating vineyards, where he grows genetically modified grapes that have little more to do with their ancient ancestors than a Tapeta track has with the sand at Del Mar beach.

I’d like to see the BC as an event as close to an American Open Championship as possible, but I'll just skip that argument for now. Interesting takes in support of Jackson’s decision can be found on The Aspiring Horseplayer and Foolish Pleasure blogs. I still disagree, for reasons stated there, but even before reading those I felt far less passionate about the topic than, say, the prospect of Rachel following up her Oaks romp with another one in the Acorn. This is largely because, for all we know, a RA v Zenyatta duel would have only been likely if both had chosen the Distaff, which would have opened up a whole new can of worms.

The self-proclaimed “World Championships” (never mind the title) have recently revamped their Win & You’re In list for the third time in three years, and in the process created a hodge-podge of American and Overseas races that are unlikely to have promotional value and are hard to follow even for the most dedicated fans. If I understand their website correctly, most of the added International races won’t even be broadcast in America. It’s also not quite clear why we need BC W&YI’s at all. Unless you simultaneously limit the BC to a maximum of 10 runners per race, its just an unneccessarily complicated way to determine about half the field (less in some cases).

The most interesting aspect is hidden in the details: not a single one of the races on Dubai World Cup Day will carry W&YI status. Is there any reason other than animosity towards the world’s other “Thoroughbred World Championship”? I don’t think so.

A second line of criticism has focused on the BC’s ignorance of the labels assigned by the American Graded Stakes Committee. True, some of the new W&YI races are entirely ungraded and the grades obviously didn’t play any major role in determining the races, but really, the AGSC’s work deserves to be ignored. Its pattern system is entirely useless to identify the most important races, unless you think that the Prioress, Kings Bishop and Santa Maria really are more prestigious than the Suburban or Oaklawn Hcps, that the Ark Derby and Lexington Stakes are on the same level, or that there really are no less than 115 races in the US which consistently attract several runners of the highest caliber.

Plus, increased incentive even for non-graded niche stakes, especially in the Turf Sprint and Marathon categories, is a good opportunity for all those upstart racinos to establish meaningful races without simultaneously watering down the quality of already established stakes elsewhere.

Hypocrisy? You Betcha!

2009-06-24T13:09:00.000-07:00

Just a quick thought that popped into my mind as I was reviewing the fallout of Kentucky’s “No!“ to slots:

A common theme you’ll find is criticism of the committee’s Republicans’ hypocrisy, especially Senate President David “Blackjack” Williams, who happily plays the casinos in neighboring states, but doesn’t want to allow them in Kentucky.

I agree it invites ridicule, but since we’re already on the topic of hypocrisy, why not take a quick look in the mirror:

Those racing fans and professionals who support slots want them for no reason other than to fund our sport, yet it would be perfectly within the states rights to legalize slots, VLTs, even full-blown casinos, independently of racing.

Wonder if those Kentucky horsemen and the racing media would be as unanimous in their support for slots then. Or would they suddenly find themselves on the side of the Family Foundation, trumping up the values of the racing-and-lottery-only era and condemning the evils of the highly-addictive slots game?

Hypocrisy indeed.

The Sorcerer's Apprentices

2009-06-24T03:24:00.000-07:00

Over the course of this week, the DRF’s Jay Hovdey wrote a great article about Zenyatta; the BC revamped its Win-And-You're In list (again), and Rachel Alexandra is preparing for a paid breezer in the *tongue-in-cheek* Grade 1 middle jewel of the Triple Tiara *giggle*. Meanwhile, the never-ending slots story went into the next couple of rounds in Kentucky, where racing’s corporate welfare mommies were successful in begging the State House for money, but were ultimately turned down by a non-representative Senate committee. A questionable process in a “Commonwealth”, I grant you, but I find it hard to join in the chorus of those crying about the injustice. Even if it was one, that it could happen was the Kentucky racing industry’s own fault.

Probably nothing characterizes the debate better than that in the Paulick Report article linked above, you have to go through 25 comments before #26 is the first one putting the finger on one of the underlying problems: that the Kentucky breeding industry has profited from a market bubble for the last few decades and will finally have to downsize to a level the sport can actually support.

Apart from this, the Kentucky slots drive was marred by several shortcomings. If you want to play up the heritage angle, you shouldn’t allow for the charge to be lead by a company like CDI, which has a long track record of giving an airborne turd about any kind of heritage they can’t directly translate into cash on the first Saturday in May. If your company just sacrificed a track like Hollywood Park (and by extension California racing) after that property turned out to be useless for your thinly-veiled aspirations to become a general gambling enterprise, you’re in no position to present yourself as the Temple Guardian of racing heritage.

However, CDI’s namesake property would have been the main beneficiary of any slots bill passed in Kentucky, a bill that was presented as being about Kentucky’s future as a breeding center, but ultimately was about helping Kentucky tracks and lower-level breeders. Unless huge limestone deposits are discovered in Central Pennsylvania or Indiana, the Bluegrass will remain the main region for top-level breeding in America, especially if Kentucky breeders return to breeding for the racetrack rather than the auction ring. The breeders who will indeed have a problem are those breeding livestock for Turfway and Ellis, tracks that can’t keep up with slot-subsidized purses and statebred bonuses at Mountaineer or PA. Without slots, Ellis is left for dead, while Turfway and Churchill face a major problem.

But, oops, we may have touched on a weak point in the Kentucky industry’s argument right there: It’s largely because Kentucky breeders and CDI have for decades supported the overexpansion of racing that those tracks ever could grow to be a threat to Kentucky racing. Kentucky wouldn’t have “competition” from places like Presque Isle Racino, Hoosier or Mountaineer today if the same industry tycoons that come begging for a bailout today hadn’t spent decades successfully fighting a much-needed regulatory body, which could have prevented such destructive trends as slots racing or overblown statebred bonuses from developing in the first place. Here’s a pointer for all those Kentucky industry members who so obviously missed ECON 101: free markets are dog-eat-dog markets, which is why every other sport of notice avoids them. You wanted it, you got it, don’t come crying when one of the puppies has outgrown you.

Without Slots, these are the most likely prospects for Kentucky tracks:

* Kentucky Downs holds a boutique meeting without any major races it has to bolster, it shouldn’t need a year-round casino to survive.

* Turfway Park is a winter track, and I’m not a friend of Thoroughbred winter racing in places where the most common name is neither Bubba nor José. It might fall by the wayside, but the sport isn't helped by two dozen Winter tracks in the Northern states anyway.

* Keeneland doesn’t need slots, and won’t need them in the future.

* As for Ellis Park, racing will have to downsize eventually. Unless you live in the vicinity of Florence, Ky., what’s the difference if Ellis, Beulah or Fairmount is the first one to go?

* Churchill Downs may have to cut off further race days. It might ultimately be forced to give up its status as a top-tier track and (except for a certain weekend in Spring) become a provincial track, which it actually was for most of its history. Having done little to improve racing's appeal while being one of the most influential powers in the industry, CDI exemplifies the problem of initiating the very problems that will come to haunt you later.

"From the spirits that I called, Sir, deliver me!" (Goethe)

Ultimately, the Kentucky story is representative of a racing industry that for decades has developed a sense of entitlement, a distinct conviction that no matter what problems they assemble (over-expansion, failure to attract customers, lack of direction and integrity etc.) it’s always someone else’s responsibility to bail them out (slots, states, customers etc.). Unlike with Goethe's sorcerer's apprentice however, I doubt that rescuing them now would serve as lesson for them to do better in the future.

Still Sitting Empty, But...

2009-06-13T02:38:00.000-07:00

(Panoramio image by Helmut Fischer)

We’re finally there. Dresden Racecourse’s greatest weekend of the year has arrived, and so have Dresden’s two Listed events of the the season.

Saturday’s feature is the 20.000€ Freiberger-Premium-Preis, historically known as the Preis der Dreijährigen, a Derby prep over 2000m. The relatively high prestige of this race is based mainly on producing back-to-back Derby winners in 1994's Laroche and 1995's ill-fated supertalent All My Dreams. The latter was the last Derby winner to prep at Dresden, although Derby runner-up’s Night Tango (2005) and Dickens (2006) came awfully close.

Of this year’s starters, only the unbeaten Navajo Dancer could be on somebody’s Derby shortlist, but it’s a fine field anyway. There’s no one who has won anything of real importance yet, but there are two or three very promising stayers who are just one or two steps away from entering the Derby picture. After all, that’s what you want to see in a 2000m Listed event for 3yo’s at this time of year.

What you wish for in a 2000m Listed race for older horses are starters who have been reasonably close in Group races, or who have proven competitive on this level before. The Sachsen Preis, Sunday’s 20K feature, far exceeds that standard. 4yo filly Goathemala starts for the first time this year, she won the G3 Frankfurter Stutenpreis last time out. Other season debutants are Schützenjunker (who is extremely inconsistent, but hasn’t earned 130K in eight lifetime starts for nothing) and Andre Fabre transfer El Comodin, who finished on the board in a French 52K Listed race on his last attempt. El Comodin was bred in Ireland, but is by German-bred champion sire Monsun and out of German-bred three-time G1-winning mare Elle Danzig (by Roi Danzig), which makes his current record of a won Listed race at Chantilly and a fourth-place finish in the G2 Prix Guillaume d’Ornano at Deauville almost disappointing. More International color is added by Classical Word (by El Prado), one of the top Danish horses in training (admittedly that doesn’t take very much).

N.B.: You gotta love this lifetime record for 13yo gelding Aladan (by Danehill, no less) heading into Saturday’s 3rd:

143 (12-10-13)

HANA Predictions 09-06-13

2009-06-13T02:18:00.000-07:00

After I had to skip the last installment of HANA’s Pool Parties, I’m back for this one. There are a lot of nice things to say about Monmouth, but other bloggers have done so in abundance over the last couple of weeks. I'm pretty sure none of those glowing reviews was triggered by anything but honest opinion, nevertheless it does leave a sour taste to read a glowing review of a day at the track, then see a Monmouth ad an inch to the left. In light of recent discussion, I’m not sure if the few bucks the TBA makes by selling ad space are really worth the cost.

My favorite TBA ad, btw, seems to have disappeared recently: the one for Mark Ripple’s ÜberHorse.com (“Handicapping the Wall Street way”). I’m pretty sure the guy regrets that subtitle by now (I mean, the going broke part is easy, just not sure if begging for bailout money will work as well for horseplayers as it did for Goldman Sachs).

Back to the issue at hand: tomorrow’s Race 9 from Monmouth, the cleverly-named Monmouth Stakes, is a great choice. It’s 9 furlongs over the turf at Monmouth, which means you can almost completely discount starting positions 7 and higher. Moreover, there are a number of starters that seem to use this race as a mere stopover on the UN Hcap trail. Among those are #4, 5 and 7. I don’t think Fearless Eagle and Banrock (whose stakes wins have come exclusively in NY statebred turf races) will be a factor. Same goes for Richard’s Kid, who is obviously hoping for this race to be taken off-the-turf, but even then he would need the added assistance of several scratches. Which leaves the following:

#1 Proudinsky – pretty much every conceivable angle points to this horse, plus the race could set up nicely for him; he isn’t a world-beater, but here he looks in the right place at the right time

#4 Grand Couturier – I love the way this horse is campaigned, and it paid off last season with two G1 wins; trainer has given him a prep race the last two years though, and this almost certainly is one too; may be good enough to hit the board on class alone, but he most certainly will be an underlay

#5 Strike A Deal – bit of a sucker horse, plus he is one of several who seem to need a longer distance; nevertheless, shouldn’t be overlooked here

#6 Buddy’s Humor – would have to step up some from his Elkhorn performance, but has shown he can live with Presious Passion opening up (i.e. doesn’t absolutely need the lead); seems to be in the right spot

#7 Presious Passion – really like this horse, but I doubt his running-style is fitting here, especially from this post

A more detailed analysis can be found on the Monmouth Park blog.

Summary:
With question marks surrounding most of the big names, this race should be Proudinsky’s for the taking. I see Buddy’s Humor’s as the only real threat.

Best Bets:
A bit risky to throw out what may be the two best horses in this field (#4 and 7), but all the more rewarding if it works. I’ll wait to see how my candidates look in the post parade before settling on a bet, but a Win bet on #1 Proudinsky and an Exacta with him on top and a combination of #5 and 6 looks most likely.

Notice:
This will be the last installment of my HANA Predictions. Starting this segment, my goal wasn’t to show off my handicapping skills (I’m perfectly aware there are far better guys and gals out there), but to spread the word about HANA’s Pool Parties. I think they’ve reached everyone you can reach via the blogosphere by now. Also, not surprisingly, readership numbers for this feature have been extremely poor. If you’ve reached here: congrats! You’ve hit the board. If you haven’t, well, that’s my point.

Result:
Looked good at the top of the stretch with Proudinsky taking the lead and Buddy's Humor charging for second, but Proudinsky left too much energy when pulling to catch Presious Passion over the first five furlongs and faded a bit at the end. Clear-cut handicapping error on my side for underestimating this factor. Congratulations to Elvis Trujillo, whose ride on Presious Passion was one of the best jockey performances I've ever seen on a front-runner. After going clear in the early stages, Trujillo gave his horse a breezer through the final turn and conserved enough energy to come back in the stretch. Perfection!

Triple Crown Alive In The UK

2009-06-06T08:46:00.000-07:00

A strong field of opponents wasn’t enough to keep Sea The Stars from impressively winning the Epsom Derby under moderate urging from Mick Kinane. The John Oxx-trained son of Cape Cross became the first horse since Nashwan in 1989 to win the first two legs of the English Triple Crown. If he starts at Doncaster in September, he’d be the first Derby winner to contest there since Reference Point in 1987, and the first one since TC-winner Nijinsky in 1970 to start with a Triple Crown sweep on the line.

The second-to-fifth finisher were all trained by Aiden O’Brien (in this order: Fame And Glory, Masterofthehorse, Golden Sword, Rip Van Winkle) and all of them looked classy even in defeat. O’Brien predictably played stable tactics, sending Golden Sword and Age Of Aquarius to set a near-insane pace, but none of this could stop Sea The Stars, who has to be considered a great one. Slight disappointments were Dante-winner Black Bear Island and Guineas-third Gan Amhras (needless to say, both are Irish horses) who never got into the race today.

Well-beaten sixth-place finisher Crowded House was the first British horse to pass the post, although eighth-placed Debussy may be the only one worth a mention. The winner of the Blue Riband Trial had a remarkably bad trip and ultimately fell victim to the pace scenario, but showed some potential to build upon (and for the few remembering my post about the Epsom Trial, my favorite, Mustaqer, unfortunately finished distressed and hasn't returned to the races since).

After Galileo, Sea The Stars is the second Epsom Derby winner for recently-deceased broodmare Urban Sea. And for those who think great female racehorses make lousy broodmares: Urban Sea won a little something called Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in 1993.

Epsom And Elmont

2009-06-06T02:53:00.000-07:00

The last days have seen such a flurry of Belmont Stakes predictions and analysis that it would almost be ridiculous to post another one. And that’s where I come in:

It’s been slightly more than a week ago that Rachel Alexandra’s connections informed the racing world about their filly skipping the Belmont in an announcement that obviously lacked a sentence. Something along the lines of: “And by ‘she is in great shape’ we mean from a medical standpoint, yet we as the people in everyday contact with the horse feel she isn’t as fresh as we had hoped for, and therefor won’t contest another tough race at this point in time”. With that qualifier fallen victim to the “delete”-button (Microsoft- or mind-wise), the remaining parts of the announcement read like Stonestreet aren’t starting a perfectly ready horse (after all, a bit of attrition is supposed to be a factor in the Belmont) and inexplicably delayed the announcement for two weeks.

The last two weeks also made it hard to defend against the widespread public perception that racing is a fundamentally elitist sport.
First, Paul Moran declared there were several better riders than Calvin Borel in the New York jockeys room but didn’t feel the need to name a single example (much less any actual argument) even after repeated urging. Moran sounded even more like he just wanted to vent some frustration when adding that Borel wouldn’t have ridden Mine That Bird any better in the Preakness, which of course can’t be disproved, but isn’t exactly convincing given that the gelding went from a perfect Derby trip to a decidedly sub-par one in the Preakness. Add the fact that Borel was in a tough spot of his own in said race, and he mastered it perfectly.
After that, a number of racing fans used Moran's sentiment (opinion minus argument = prejudice, as Aristoteles never quite said) as proof for their theory that MTB’s connections are a couple of rednecks who aren’t up to the challenge.

The main backwoods redneck, Chip Woolley, has had one really good horse in his life, and he trained him to win the Kentucky Derby, after which only a bad trip provided MTB from really challenging RA in the Preakness (insert your own Toddster reference of choice here). He may still be prone to make a beginners’ mistake or two on this level, but so far he has outsmarted all of us, so you better wipe that smug look right off your face!

With those thoughts off my mind, let’s have a look on the two main races today. The Epsom Derby shapes up as a virtual added-distance re-run for the 2000 Guineas. As always, handicapping the English Classics (except the St. Leger) comes down to an exercise in guessing at horsemen and pedigree angles rather than comparing actual forms, but Guineas winner Sea The Stars looks to be the one to beat. He’s a half-brother to Galileo and his pedigree doesn’t include too many stamina question marks. Still, with no less than six horses in a twelve-horse field, Aidan O’Brien has a lot of options, even though his first jockey (Murtagh) skipped what would be his logical first two choices (Fame And Glory and Black Bear Island) for Rip Van Winkle, whose last two disappointing performances aren’t helped by his doubtful pedigree. The first six choices are all Irish raiders, and there’s only Godolphin’s Kite Wood to hold up the Emirati flag, but he was beaten decisively by Black Bear Island in the Dante Stakes.

As for the Belmont, I find myself underwhelmed by this race now that RA is out of the mix. It’s not that no Triple Crown is on the line (I wasn’t particularly thrilled by last year’s edition either), it’s just that there isn’t too much sporting interest left. Mine That Bird could once again cement his status, but anyone who still doubts that he is the real deal probably can’t be helped anyway. If he gets beat by one of the fresher horses, he’ll have enough excuses.

#1 Chocolate Candy – unusual comment for an Argentine-sired horse, but I doubt his stamina; also, he was beaten quite decisively in the Derby, and I don’t see enough reason for a reversal of fortunes

#2 Dunkirk – probably the only interesting non-Borel storyline left: will he disprove his meager Derby performance? I doubt it, but I was never on the Dunkirk bandwagon; Pletcher indicated his colt might not like wet ground, but he may have been just scrambling for excuses; all in all I consider him an underlay at a 4/1 ML

#3 Mr Hot Stuff – sorry, but 1-from-8, trained and run almost exclusively on artificial surfaces just doesn’t translate into Belmont victory for me

#4 Summer Bird – has the pedigree, and by my long-standing policy to automatically bet any horse that ran okay going spectacularly wide in all of his last races, this 12/1 ML horse is a “buy”

#5 Luv Gov – unless I’m completely missing something here, his 20/1 ML would make him the underlay of the day; trainer has proven often enough that he WILL send out horses with a snowball’s chance.

#6 Charitable Man – won well in the Peter Pan, but wasn’t too impressive; may profit from added distance and likes this track; needs the race to set up for him to beat MTB, but may get it

#7 Mine That Bird – almost looks like a sucker bet, but I just don’t see a better horse in this field, only a couple that could be more fortunate; I’m not concerned about the distance, but the track and level of attrition are concerns, though wet-fast would help; with RA out, his opposition might concentrate on making this tough on Borel and his horse

#8 Flying Private – ran well in the Preakness, but won only one of twelve LT starts and doesn’t look to be the greatest fighter of all; at 12/1 ML he is worth consideration for the exotics, but I wouldn’t rate him a real threat; as a fan, I find Lukas horses an automatic “root-against” after he once again proposed his TC extension plan.

#9 Miner’s Escape – Federico Tesio to Belmont may be stepping up a bit too fast

#10 Brave Victory – a Zito-horse like #9, he has yet to hit the exacta in five graded stakes attempts; highly doubtful he’ll do so here

Summary:

Plenty of things could go wrong for MTB, but as a racing fan I hope he wins it. If he doesn’t, I doubt that a new star will be born as the rest of the field (with exception for Summer Bird and Dunkirk) is rather playing the angles than actually Triple Crown material. I’ll just try to get some small bets on the 'Birds for a good price (both are attracting too much in the early market at betfair, actually below their ML right now) and leave it at that.

If you want to bet more, I recomend you single #7 for a Win, #4 and 6 for the Exacta spot and #2,4,6 and 8 to hit the board. You might switch #7 and #4 for a value bet.

Lost In Translation

2009-06-02T12:36:00.000-07:00

As fortunately as it is surprising, no one around here seems to be in the early stages of hysteria in anticipation of this week’s visit of the American Messiah-elect to our (really not that) humble town.

Unlike the prophets of old however, Obama is poised to block our way through the raging waters (or over them, for that matter), as the bridge I would usually take to my job will be closed for security reasons on Thursday.

Anyway, the reason I posted today is that Pull The Pocket has brought it to the blogosphere’s attention that Poker Channel Europe yesterday started to televise American racing in a daily hour-long show. PCE is an extremely remote digital channel available on a very limited number of cable systems, but one that can be viewed using Zattoo.

Poker and Racing, by the way, are a natural match. Both are the only two forms of gambling in which skill and determination can give you a winning percentage. Both are also the only ones in which the house (at least theoretically) can be neutral towards the result as long as the handle is high enough.

I was intrigued by the concept for a couple of minutes, even more so when I clicked the link on PCE’s website to get further information and realized that their program is actually presented and produced by Equi8, a relatively new and very promising German web channel/ADW which is for the most part a continuation/copy of defunct Premiere Win. P-Win was a German channel dedicated almost exlusively to American horse racing run by pay-per-view service Premiere, but it was actually available for free and streamed its entire program (6pm-2am weekdays, ca. 2pm-2am weekends) online.

It had its pitfalls, but nevertheless it was easily the best of several failed attempts at establishing a racing channel in Germany. One of its best features was a crew of really good commentators, ranging from longtime analysts to active jockeys and trainers.

After watching half an hour of the “Equi8 Happy Hour”’s lead-in program (virtual poker, no kidding) I was sure I knew what to expect, and that it wouldn’t be bad. After all, what could go wrong with a studio crew of longtime veteran Michael Luxenburger and Thorsten Castle, the track announcer at Munich Racecourse and a brilliant promoter at times (both are P-Win alumni)?

I was gonna find out soon enough: they were forced to moderate in English. Both aren’t bad at English, but both aren’t nearly good enough to go On Air speaking it, mainly because they have too detectable an accent and lack the easy slap-of-tongue they master in their native language. The program had a studio crew that can be a joy to listen to, and used it in a way that made listening to them an ordeal. That’s wasted talent, and a textbook case of offending two audiences by trying to be everything to everyone.

Let’s be honest for a second: how large does PCE assess the market in Cyprus, Croatia and Belgium to be? As long as they aren’t allowed to show it in the UK or Ireland, the market for this show is Germany. And if they would be allowed, they’d find out the hard way that no native speaker would listen to a bunch of accent-plagued Germans using mispronounced English to discuss American racing. If you assemble a team of some of the best German racing analysts, why not use that potential rather than have them struggle uncomfortably through moderations that end up lacking, or worse?

Quarters to Square the Rectangle (And Other Observations)

2009-05-29T08:43:00.000-07:00

I was gonna write a piece yesterday about the slightly odd direction the Zenyatta v Rachel Alexandra match debate has taken, but EquiSpace has pretty much said all I wanted say already, kudos!

I would only add that I don’t quite understand why a Belmont-winning RA would be the “challenger” against Zenyatta at all. If she won the “Test of Champions”, the filly would have an Oaks triumph and two Triple Crown wins under her belt. Zenyatta has shown all the potential in the world (or at least the artificially surfaced world), but still hasn’t beaten anyone better than Ginger Punch, especially considering she met Music Note and Cocoa Beach on a tilted playing field. In my understanding of "challenging" a Champion, the one in the challenging position would be Zenyatta. Without the Belmont, I’d regard it a tie, so they may meet each other somewhere half way, like Prairie Meadows (I’m not seriously proposing this, I just desperately needed a segue).

Prairie Madness

When I hear “Racing in Iowa”, the first thing I think about is the tradition-rich Iowa Fairs harness circuit, then comes the tradition of Thoroughbred racing in the Midwest (actually, the first thing to come to mind would be amateur stock car racing, but that’s besides the point).

The "non-profit" Prairie Meadows Racino seems to think otherwise. They plan to shift the focus of their product towards Quarter Horse racing, dropping the equivalent of 10 Thoroughbred racedays in the process, and quit racing Standardbreds altogether.

I feel a bit odd criticizing the switch because I don’t really dislike the result, what bugs me is the method applied, and the logic that I suspect is behind it.

Less thoroughbred racing at PrM is good for the sport (although not necessarily for racing in Iowa), and I guess (really guess, my harness racing knowledge is extremely limited) that Iowa Fair racing is best helped by reverting those racedays to Iowa fairgrounds. Still, this reasoning was obviously not what led Prairie Meadows to propose the change.

What got this non-profit organization to do it then? Well, first of all the fact that non-profit is a clear-cut misnomer, since the racino does make profit for its state and its perpendicularly angled host county. Despite lower handle, the considerably lower cost of QH racing makes it more profitable for the track. So profitable obviously, that they will even change their race dates to Thursday through Sunday, even though their Monday and Tuesday events currently attract more than three times the handle (but probably not enough to outweigh the lure of having a lead-in on the most profitable casino days).

So in essence, what the good folks at Prairie Meadows mean by “promoting racing in Iowa” is to drop the state’s most tradition-rich mode of racing, demote the most popular mode on their track, and concentrate on a mode of racing that has hardly any heritage in Iowa, and has so far failed to gain substantial public interest.

"Non-Profit" never sounded so hollow before. Seems like Iowa is starting to cut off the parasite.

10.099 Beats 7.412, But Not By Much

2009-05-26T07:03:00.000-07:00

In all the euphoria over yesterday’s atmosphere at Belmont Park, where 10.099 racegoers apparently had a great time, I was relieved that I wasn’t the only one struck by how low this number really was. Just over 10.000? On a public holiday, in beautiful weather, with one of the most prestigious handicaps of the continent on the card? Dresden had 7.412 for this year’s only raceday so far. And horse racing is by no means a generally more popular sport over here.

That’s 7.412 in a city of 500.000, which (no matter how often English-language Wikipedia wants to ignore the objections by me and other editors) isn’t part of any metropolitan area. It’s for a raceday on which the “feature” was a Hcp D for 4.600€, on the same weekend on which Dresden also hosted the largest Dixieland festival outside New Orleans, among other alternatives.

For all they screw up in every other part of marketing the sport, the one thing German racecourses do well is marketing themselves as an outdoor event. There are several thousand regular racegoers (especially families) in any city with a track who don’t have any interest in the sport on any other than raceday, but who attend for the atmosphere and side attractions alone. They will usually only make a couple of spice-up bets at minimum stake amount, spread out over the day. Yet the racetracks profit from the admission and programmes paid and the revenue generated from on-site beer gardens, cafés, vendors, pony rides and other attractions.

Due to the, self-inflicted, absence of meaningful off-track handle (on Dresden’s first raceday, only 40,4% of the 108K total handle were off-site), this source of income is increasingly vital for the continuing existence of the sport in our remote corner of the Thoroughbred world.

Good attendance is great for the horseplayers too. Because a large portion of the handle comes from people who aren’t really dedicated handicappers, it’s much easier to find quality bets at a good price, the level of competition is much lower (although in Germany this is somewhat offset by the difficulty of getting meaningful information).

I’m aware that it’s easier to get good attendance figures if you only have a dozen of racedays per year to promote, but then nobody forces NYRA to run two stakes races every weekend. This way, they’re teaching the audience that a comparable product will be offered all the time, thus diminishing the incentive to attend today, or tomorrow. It would be easier to attract large crowds if they would create several racedays when the product offered (on the courses and around the paddock) far exceeds the usual levels, then promote only those days, and leave the rest to the few that will come anyway and have little interest in the side attractions. This is the way the Paris tracks do it, and it works fine for them.

Of course, it would be even better for NYRA to realize that even in the “Golden Age” they ran hardly a third of the number of races, but I’m trying to be realistic here.

HANA Predictions 09-05-23

2009-05-23T09:57:00.000-07:00

Canterbury Park is one of those tracks that I would really love if they ran once a week, instead of four times. Other than that, it’s a reasonably nice track, and one of those that offer free streaming and race replays (always a huge plus). It’s also home to today’s HANA pool party, which will take place in the 8th race:

#1 Darby Lee – Jamie Ness horse that shows no other turf forms on her pp sheet and I initially didn’t like the added distance, but I found some ancient history replays for her turf starts at this track (1 1/16 miles), where she showed a nice finish; had a great winter at Tampa and is worth some thought in this company, although her speed is definitely limited

#2 Jody’s Included – rapidly slipping down the Claiming ranks, as well as the track hierarchy, but at least she didn’t seem to get worse with every start, and a repeat of the TuP form might be enough to be a contender, especially if she gets into the race a little earlier this time; no idea how to rate the stable change or the meager last workouts

#3 Candiquik - warrants attention for the exotics on jockey and trainer angles alone; second off a very long layoff, and on last year’s forms has a chance; seems to need a slower pace and there’s no speedster in the field; switch to turf and the added distance both are concerns, so is the fact that she hasn’t run a decent SF in 10 months despite hugging the rail on most attempts

#4 Lil Crafty – ouch! to those speed figs, let alone stable stats

#5 Devil Not Me – let’s just hope she stays healthy

#6 Fancy N Quick – TuP transfer has by far the best recent speed in this field; constantly competitive in comparable class; the big question is why she has such a low-percentage jockey

#7 Play N Fair – Two starts last June are the only two in 18 months and horrible stats all around combine to make this a throwout

#8 Call Her Broke – would have to step up a lot from her Fonner performances; distance and turf look good, but I wouldn’t take her at 6/1; angles don’t look that good on closer inspection

#9 Rossiya – this one obviously likes turf miles, but it’s a guess if this is a prep start (no official workouts since May 3, are you kidding me?)

#10 Elegant Star – Jamie Ness has cooled down a little lately (gee, wonder if it has anything to do with his little “unmarked bottle” mishap) and this one wasn’t even particularly convincing before Jamie’s labeling malfunction, especially SF-wise

#11 Deb Doright – has indeed done alright at TuP, where she has run consistently high SF’s; on the other hand Eikleberry found a way to go the extra furlong on her in almost every attempt, so I shudder to think what he’ll do from the outside gate; was the favorite four times in last six starts and won only one, plus I don’t think the stable change will help

Summary:

To tell you the truth I’d never play this race if it wasn’t the HANA pool. If taken off the turf, it’ll be interesting to see how this no-frontrunner race develops on a frontrunners’ track. There are just too many questions and maybes to make a compelling argument for the exotics. If the horses look right in the paddock, the best Win selections may be #6 (8/1 ML) and #9 (10/1). Of the favorites, only #1 might be worth the cost, but I don’t think I’ll bet her.

In other news:

Props to Railbird for finding these two articles on Rachel Alexandra’s victory, the first a hilarious one from The Onion, the second one calling racing “one of the last strongholds of entrenched testosterone”. Yeah, it really is just us, Destruction Derby and those underground manatee clubbing tournaments that I visit every Thurs... I’ve said too much.

Result:

Ended up with a single bet on #11 Deb Doright after this race was taken off the turf (I liked her visual improvement when switching to dirt in her last race). Always nice to to bet on an outside post on a track you don’t know just to find out that they’re starting right into the first turn. Great ride this time from Eikleberry, but he still couldn’t prevent her from going 100 extra yards. In the end #1 edged my horse out, #2 was third (wonder why?).

Borderline unsportsmanlike conduct to start races from this position anyway, although it’s just as questionable that American tracks take races off the turf everytime two or three drops have fallen over the last month.

Larry Talkin' Horses Link

2009-05-22T03:57:00.000-07:00

Conveniently tying together the first two paragraphs from my last post, Mr Larry King, who won trifectas before they were invented, appeared on The Daily Show last night .

Jon Stewart was obviously unaware of the Calder story's, shall we say, fantastic elements, but the two of them were talking horses quite a bit. And while I don’t entirely follow Larry’s theory that betting the races isn’t gambling, I’m one hundred percent with him in encouraging the audience to visit the track. Anyway it’s a funny bit in its own right and great advertisement for the sport.

Rachel Alarmista

2009-05-21T13:53:00.000-07:00

Quite a few things have happened over the last week here at the corner of Horseplayer Road and Racing Boulevard. Rachel Alexandra proved every bit as good as she looked in the Oaks when winning the Preakness from a strong-challenging non-fluke, catapulting herself into a layer of stardom that reaches the oft-mentioned casual fan, and even achieving that most precious proof of immortality, being photoshopped into a picture with the president on The Daily Show (approx. at the 2:30 mark).

Speaking of political satire and fake stories that make you laugh out loud, we learned that Larry King might find it so easy to avoid obvious hard questions because he has a habit of making up his own reality anyway.

Finally, those who hoped that one filly winning the Preakness would be enough to get some rest from the “fillies-shouldn’t-run-against-colts” debate were seriously disappointed when this one moved right on into either “she shouldn’t be asked to do what we expect of those inferior horses she beat” or “she should be treated as a piece of porcelain and not run ever again”. The latter might be the most stupid opinion on racing I ever read, and that’s against some pretty stiff opposition.

You do realize she’s a racehorse, do you? The class repeats: RACE-HORSE! The word consists of two parts, of which the first, RACE, is referring to racing, which is what racehorses are intended and, theoretically, bred to do. Does anybody suggest that MLB should retire its Rookies-of-the-Year, so we can dabble in memories of Jacoby Ellsbury’s first (full) season on ESPN Classics, instead of watching him actually steal home live on broadcast TV? (To be sure, I’m an Orioles fan, but I do enjoy watching Ellsbury).

Those people who spent the week before the Preakness telling us that fillies are somehow naturally bound to break down when competing against colts (allegedly because they run their heart out against superior opposition, which, I understand, can’t happen in filly races) are now at it to tell us that fillies also can’t run 12 furlongs (as opposed to one-and-a-half miles, the traditional distance for Oaks races). One thing is obvious: should Jackson decide to start his filly in the Belmont (which I would appreciate, provided she is fit), it’s a no-win for him, and for racing. If she wins, she’ll do what was expected of her, if she is injured in any way, the alarmists will pop out of their holes screaming “I told you this race was one too much”, which of course is easy enough to be right about if you predict apocalypse before absolutely every one of her races.

The risk of a horse breaking down or otherwise injuring itself is pretty high in American racing. We all know why (drugs, breeding the infirm to the unraced), and we all should certainly be able to understand that it has nothing to do with the gender of horses a racehorse competes against, nor does it have much to do with the frequency of races. The increasing unsoundness of the American racehorse is a problem that becomes more apparent with every 3yo crop we watch entering the Triple Crown trail, where injury has replaced graded stakes earnings as the main obstacle to enter the Derby gate. It’s a major problem. And it has to finally be addressed in a meaningful way. But not by stopping racehorses from racing.

Fixing A Bet

2009-05-21T03:06:00.000-07:00

Within a couple of days, two more tote incidents have further eroded the confidence of horseplayers. One, at Hollywood Park, has already been confirmed to be worthy of further investigation (although nothing so far indicates malicious intent), while little is known about a second one, at Penn National.

At California, the Autotote system failed again. We don’t know exactly what happened at Penn National, where pools were refunded for one race, and a Paceadvantage.com forum contributor reports suspicious late developments in the Exacta pool. Penn National switched from Autotote to United Tote a few years ago.

One interesting sidenote is that both incidents have come to the public’s attention via HANA, which wasn’t meant to be a watchdog site, but seems to have gained weight in a direction they might be surprised by themselves.

California, despite various bad experiences in the past, continues to use the questionable services of Autotote, a company involved in virtually all prominent past-post betting incidents in recent history. Autotote rebranded as Scientific Games after the Pick-Six scandal a few years back, but its original name (which literally means Car Deaths in German) had a much more fitting quality: the company is a wreck. Which begs two questions: a) is Autotote just incompetent or are they "incompetent" for a reason? and b) how is it that so many tracks still work with them instead of the other, better, tote operators around?

While I call the attention of federal authorities to the first question, it’s the second one that specifically interests me as a horseplayer and fan of the sport.

Get Lucky Laying Rachel?

2009-05-16T01:50:00.000-07:00

First of all, I love the Preakness. I admit I’m a bit partial about this race and track.

For the record, the reason is not my secret craving for being part of a frat party, it’s that Preakness Day is one of few events in American racing that manages to attract a huge crowd out of all walks of life, the vast majority of them not being simultaneously drunk and stupid. I also have a general sympathy for Baltimore, which is in part fueled by The Wire, although Pimlico only gets brief stints as a drug-infested neighborhood in what I consider one of the greatest works of art in history.

I guess ultimately the reason is the human inclination to root for the underdog. The Preakness, tucked in between the glamorous Derby and the more prestigious showdown at the Big Apple, is always the ugly duckling of the Triple Crown. Promoters never seem to be quite sure what to make of it, frequently concentrating on the alleged anachronism of the date, or the lack of beauty in the surrounding neighborhood. In any recap of Triple Crown sweeps the Pimlico race is sure to be the one least talked about.

This is especially weird because the Preakness is often the most meaningful 3YO race of the year, returning the top finishers from the Derby to race under more conventional circumstances, with less of the trip trouble and destructive pace scenario that usually characterizes the Run for the Roses.

This year’s edition looks like a potential one-for-the-ages:

#1 Big Drama – not confident he’ll stand the distance; really hasn’t done anything wrong so far, but somehow I’m far less impressed than most observers are

#2 Mine That Bird – Fool me once... As I said before, I don’t expect him to win this, but I wouldn’t be shocked; hard to handicap a horse that improved so much on his last start; he won’t have such a favorable trip twice, but his Derby move was too good to be explained away as merely a circumstantial fluke, figures to be a contender again

#3 Musket Man –I had him sized up for an honest racehorse who could get into the money, but not one to really menace before the Derby, which may have been underestimating him a little; went spectacularly wide for the final turn, but then again several outlets mentioned that 6 or 7 wide may have been better than 3 or 4 wide on that CD track; all in all I don’t have him on the shortlist this time either, but would consider him if playing the trifecta

#4 Luv Gov – broke his maiden on the 10th attempt; his undercard win on Derby Day was nothing to write home about; he went clear late on a muddy track after a perfect trip, but didn’t beat much and did it in less-than-impressive time, giving his opposition much more headway than he can afford this time; horrible stable form in Graded Stakes, too; frankly I don’t see why he’s entered in this race

#5 Friesan Fire – I share the concerns about him returning so soon after suffering an injury in the Derby; pretty much depends on whether you think the quarter crack story was overblown; starts from a tricky post statistically

#6 Terrain – stable drops sharply in Graded Stakes, plus there is no real reason why he should suddenly improve over horses that have distanced him before

#7 Papa Clem – nice effort in the Derby, but he was true to form there, and being true to form again isn’t enough here; I think he’s a fine racehorse, but a level below the creme of this crop, also starts from a tricky post statistically

#8 General Quarters - As great a story as he is, I never shared all the optimism; the reason is simple: I think those Keeneland preps are way overblown because of their historical importance, in the Polytrack era they have so far been entirely meaningless for the Classics; the Blue Grass aside, he’s shown some useful performances, but none that make him a contender in this field.

#9 Pioneerof The Nile – ran a very good race in the Derby and may find it a bit easier here (although his Derby trip was far better than it could have been); if RA fails, he’s the go-to candidate, although he might be singled out (hence bet) more than he should be; I don’t find his speed figs too slow at all, he got a 95 Beyer or 103 BRIS going 3 wide both turns on a rail-favoring track, which translates into a very reasonable performance

#10 Flying Private – didn’t like him in the Derby, and I’m starting to think D. Wayne Lukas (who trains Luv Gov too) is going for the tail end exacta here. To be fair, he faced adversity in pretty much all of his starts, but his running style and post do little to inspire hope for a reversal of fortunes.

#11 Take The Points – the return-to-dirt and return-to-winning-jock angles are working in his favor; has shown some potential and at 30-1 ML he might provide good value, but may well be parked wide again and needs to step up anyway.

#12 Tone It Down – Well, he was competitive at Laurel, wasn’t he? Pacesetter who doesn’t nearly have the early speed to overcome post 12, let alone the quality to finish it off.

#13 Rachel Alexandra – By far the most important question concerning this race: will she boom or bust. To repeat from an earlier post: “if there’s one race Rachel Alexandra looks vulnerable in, it’s the Preakness. The filly has been re-directed to this race less than ten days before post time, her previous owners obviously never entertained the idea, whereas it must have been lingering in the back of any Derby owner’s or trainer’s mind to some degree. Plus she has changed stables in between, adding an extra stress factor that should more than offset any advantage she may have gained by not running the Derby”. Add the fact that she hasn’t been seriously tested all year, she might get surprised this time. Plus, Borel is the best squeezer around, but squeezing is always a risky tactic, and not one I like to see when I rate a horse superior to the field. Not sure if Borel will try the rail, though.

The more general question: how good was her Oaks win? After a perfect trip she pulled off for a record-shattering 20 ¼ lenght romp, Borel didn’t push her in the stretch. But to assume that a horse could have gone much faster just because it wasn’t urged to is one of the most frequent mistakes in handicapping. Besides, victories by a canter can be deceptive, I’ve seen 6yo Class 3 handicap horses look like the second coming of Eclipse when cantering home in a weak field. I expect her to be at the very least one of the best of this crop, but with all of the above plus the trip scenario from gate 13 going against her, I guess she won’t prove it today.

Summary:
Pretty wide open for a Preakness,
Considerations for the Win: #2,9,13, of which I wouldn’t play the 13, rest may only be played if Betfair offers some good value, or if you’re a fervent believer in the the get-lucky-laying-Rachel theory; Longshot bet #11 if available for 30-1 upwards.
Exacta: any combination of the above, add #5
Trifecta: add #3 and #7 to the pool

Best Bets: Definitely in the exotics range, I might try a 2,9,11 with 2,5,9,11 with 2,3,5,7,9,11,13 trifecta. If you have more money to spare, consider backing this up with smaller trifectas singling the show-spot horses for win and place.

Finally, I swear this post was all but written before I found out that several parts look like I copied them right out of Joe Drape’s or the DRF’s analysis.

No Infield Trouble Expected Over Here

2009-05-16T01:40:00.000-07:00

Today, this season finally kicks off at Dresden-Seidnitz Racecourse, about five weeks later than usual. Dresden, which usually started in early to mid-April, always tried to get its first race date later in the year, because of the lower likelihood of bad weather. It never got its will though, since other tracks insisted on their traditional claims to those dates at the annual meeting of Eastern German racing secretaries (because Eastern German racecourses are considerably better managed than Western, Southwestern and most Northern tracks, they are effective in avoiding conflicting dates, which unfortunately is worth special mention). So eventually they got rid of the date by striking the raceday all together, which follows the general trend, although the reduction in race dates is far less dramatic in Eastern Germany.

They may have kicked themselves for doing it though. We had great weather practically all through April (its not that good today), and a race day on the traditional date would have been a dunker. Also, I would have preferred to get rid of today’s date, which directly competes with Dresden Dixieland, the biggest jazz festival outside North America, which is expected to attract more than 500.000 visitors again, and should draw away at least a thousand from the track. That’s bad news, because with German racing’s ineptitude to market its product and the declining off-track handle this causes, German racedays are increasingly dependent on on-track handle and attendance.

And because I know it’s the race you all have your eyes on today, the play of the day is #1 First Lilly in the third, one of two 3yo races with quite attractive fields.

I planned on taking a few photos and posting them this evening, but unfortunately my new camera, a bold 12,08€ investment on eBay (includes shipping), hasn't arrived yet.

Trojan Horse Racing

2009-05-15T05:57:00.000-07:00

The last few days have seen a resurgence of the ongoing discussion of the merits and potential of slot-subsidized racing, stirred up first by Power Cap, then on the HANA blog and on the Pull the Pocket blog. All of these posts are strong in analysis, and the first two both try to push a concept for a more productive way of doing business.

Power Cap’s currently Utopian idea of a Mid-Atlantic circuit not relying on slot revenues and HANA’s proposition of a slot-revenue system more in tune with the interests of racing are both good in concept, but their chances of ever becoming reality are next to zero.

The reason is that both don’t address the heart of the matter, which is that slot racing has never been intended to help the sport, it has been intended to help current horsemen, state coffers and the casino industry. The difference is not a small one.

Proponents of Slot Racing come from three different camps. First there are the breeders, trainers and owners of thoroughbreds. Since the forces of the market demand that racing (at least in its current state) has to decline in size, their business is doomed, and the lower the quality of horses they handle, the more pressing this problem becomes (which explains why those states offering the worst product were the first to legalize slot racing).
It also poses a problem for state regulators, who are used to the income generated from the sport and whose attempts at getting more out of it than the industry can support is the main reason for the inflation in race dates and the horsemen ranks.
The final camp are gambling enterprises, which have no interest at all in racing, but to whom subsidizing it in exchange for opening up new markets is an investment well worth the cost.

Newsflash here, Casino operators aren’t the most socially-spirited of guys, they’re in the business of tricking you into spending your money on games you can't win, then throwing you out. Sure, if you’re completely broke they might sponsor your trip home, but they don’t do it because of their human qualities, they do it so the sight of your destroyed little remains in front of the glitzy main entrance doesn’t keep their next victims from entering.

Of course the casino industry isn’t interested in playing welfare system for the ailing horsemen population in the long term, but they figure they won’t have to. A couple of decades from now, I’m sure that historians will look back at slot-subsidized racing in disbelief. How could the racing industry not detect one of the most obvious Trojan Horse schemes in world history? The casino industry is promising a couple of frightened horsemen El Dorado, and the horsemen are happily inviting them in.

Once the casino industry has established itself in the state, once public interest in the racing product has further eroded (as it undoubtedly will in an environment in which racetracks are uninviting run-of-the-mill extensions of buzzy casinos), the time has come for them to cut off the costly leech attached to their casino empires. The state governments will be glad to help, by then they’ll have come to think of racing only as a nuisance cutting into their takeout rate too. The horsemen population, and to a large degree the sport so violated, will be spit out and left facing an environment much worse than what they started from.

"It's only a matter of time before they stop racing horses all together and just use them to cart around free booze to the gamblers."

(Greg Wyshynski, seriously under-estimating the introduction of slots to racing at rank #58 in “Glow Pucks & 10-Cent Beer – The 101 Worst Ideas in Sports History”)

Enter the Geldings: From MTB to Zayat

2009-05-11T02:26:00.000-07:00

At the end of the day, Mine That Bird co-owner Mark Allen took a hiding. Well, not a hiding, but a PR release in which he contradicted everything we already know has happened and still found the time to come across as the stereotypical hillbilly millionaire. He might have been surprised how much harder behind-the-scenes fixing is in the Triple Crown as compared to what he’s accustomed to from Alaska.

Even so, Borderland Mark couldn’t help slipping in a cheap shot, mentioning that he doesn’t believe in running a filly against the boys at this stage. One could go into a lenghty off-the-racing-topic discussion about judging others based on one’s belief rather than reason here, but let’s just say he also is a man who calls Steve Asmussen “a great trainer” and believes that Mike Smith has “got some Cowboy in him”, which he knows because he’s seen Smith’s boots.

Allen thus accomplished the challenging feat to out-dumb Pioneerof The Nile's owner Ahmed Zayat, who earlier in the day had explained to the world his theory that it’s just unfair for someone else to have a better horse, that it’s not okay for a new owner to change the direction of their horse’s campaign, that horses shouldn’t skip the the Derby to run in the Preakness (which of course is precisely what his placeholder horses would have done), repeated the notion that the Triple Crown was for stallion prospects (such as MTB?) and finished it all off by working in the scare card (“Two weeks for a filly? Does our sport need another Eight Belles”). Now that’s true, our sport could use another Eight Belles incident about as much as the one Ahmed Zayat it’s already stuck with.

What’s most stunning about this affair is the chutzpah by which two millionaire owners not only regard a Triple Crown race as somehow belonging to them (“I think this match is between us, it's a rivalry” – Mark Allen according to Ahmed Zayat) but also conspire to keep a horse they both regard as superior out of the race, then defend it with what can only be described as a public relations nightmare at the expense of the sport.

All this chickening-from-the-chick biz is especially remarkable and foolish because if there’s one race Rachel Alexandra looks vulnerable in, it’s the Preakness. The filly has been re-directed to this race ~~a mere~~ less than ten days before post time, her previous owners obviously never entertained the idea, whereas it must have been lingering in the back of any Derby owner’s or trainer’s mind to some degree. Plus she has changed stables in between, adding an extra stress factor that should more than offset any advantage she may have gained by not running the Derby. If you can't see a chance to beat her in Baltimore, where are you gonna hide the rest of the year?

Between Zayat, Allan and Mine That Bird, the gelding is the only one who's got some balls.

HANA Predictions 09-05-09

2009-05-09T14:53:00.000-07:00

More a reminder than a true attempt at predicting the outcome:

Tonight’s Pool Party, Race 6 at Prairie Meadows, brings the HANA train back to the netherlands of American racing (no offense intended; being from East Germany, I don’t share the West German love-hate relationship with our oranje neighbors). This will be my first ever bet at PrM. In fact, I wasn’t even aware one of my ADW’s carried the track until I checked last night. I didn’t spend much time handicapping this (without replays or knowledge about track and horsemen) and felt a little lost with this Clm7,5K for 10K, but here it is for the sake of it:

#1 Courtney J: weird improvement in her speed figure despite allegedly going 6 wide last start while returning to this track (again, I don’t have the replays); has repeatedly been competitive here in roughly comparable class last year.

#2 T C’s Sweetie: returns to track, re-united with last winning jock, won Alw races here last year and regularly sports SF’s beyond today’s competition, but is the only one off a layoff (since January); switches to a high-percentage stable that drops with first-out winners but rises just as much in first-out placed starters, suggesting they don’t send out horses for a prep.

#3 Ekberg: returning form Oaklawn, has won her last two starts at this track; second off layoff since last August, could go either way.

Of the rest, #5 and #6 are a little intriguing, while #8 is the only one showing any consistency SF-wise, but for 7/2 I wouldn’t take my chances with her.

Summary: For what it’s worth, I’ll go with #2 for a Win from 3-1 upwards, #1,3 and 8 might be the best considerations for the Exacta.

Could Jess Be Our Savior?

2009-05-08T12:37:00.000-07:00

The racing world suddenly looks several shades brighter since Jess Jackson’s Stonestreet Stables, no doubt inspired by my repeated whining about the path lined out for her, purchased Rachel Alexandra. And things got even better when today it was announced that the standout filly will be pointed to the Preakness next, with Calvin Borel aboard. According to Jackson, Borel’s decision “came down to the facts that he knows and loves this horse, that he knows how to get the most from her and he knows how to win”. That he knows she’s the better horse compared to the Derby winner might have been a factor too.

Like most people, I’m not exactly euphoric about seeing great horses in the care of Steve Asmussen, but having this horse owned by Stonestreet is about the best thing that could happen to the sport. RA was looking to be a lost opportunity for racing, now she could become the sport’s best (and fastest) PR campaign.

With Curlin, Jackson gave the racing world an almost forgotten sensation – the sight of a Horse of the Year being campaigned like a Champion. Curlin took on all comers in Dubai, California, Kentucky and New York. He won a lot and lost a few, but his defeats came because Stonestreet didn’t duck a challenge and never pampered their horse by entering races they couldn’t lose. I loved how Jackson pointed his horse to challenge the world’s best turf horses in the Arc. It ultimately turned out Curlin didn’t like the turf, but even so it assured that fans got an exciting season out of the HOTY. Most owners would have rushed him off to stud or, like Ghostzapper, campaigned him in races tilted towards his interests, all the while patting themselves on their back for how great a gesture it was to show up at all. I will always take a horse that lost a couple of big challenges over one that avoided them in the first place. If this decade has produced one true Champion, Curlin was that.

I also loved how Jackson challenged Big Brown to a pre-BC match, first in the Woodward, then in the JC Gold Cup. Big Brown’s owners, IEAH, on the other hand weren’t that sporting. Their attitude is typical for most of today’s big-time owners: seeing a great challenge as nothing more than a great risk to their horse’s value at stud. As long as the breeding industry is the tail wagging the dog, this strategy makes sense. After all, Big Brown was syndicated for over $50 million, amazing for a horse that battled soundness issues all through its career.

Fans of the sport can only hope for owners who put sportsmanship first and financial considerations second. Right now, no major owner represents that spirit better than Jess Jackson.

So There’s That Birdstone Gelding

2009-05-06T02:24:00.000-07:00

I’m still recuperating from last Saturday’s Derby. I could have kicked myself that night for not placing any kind of crap shot bet on Mine That Bird after declaring the Derby a “Borel race”, strongly assuming that the rail would once again be wide open for the final turn and learning that there was a rail bias at Louisville. This first rush of frustration has waned by now, and made room for the realization that, really, I didn’t do anything wrong. In fact I layed off any exotics (thanks CD for being so arrogant as to require a $2-minimum on Exactas in a 19-horse field, you sure helped) and just lost $8 on four crappy sympathy bets (FF, DP, PoTN for a win at nice betfair odds; Papa Clem for a Show); could have been worse.

So MTB was a champion in Canada. He achieved it by winning four in row, three of them stakes races. But the best he did up Nord was a G3, and he didn’t win by more than two lenghts in any of these races. Then came a miserable BC and two now-famous mediocre performances in his only dirt starts at a backwater racetrack.

So he didn’t look quite that enchanting when suffering from bad moves at Sunland. I didn’t watch those races and likely wouldn’t have even if I had the race replays available. That‘s because even if they had been horrible trips he still should have distanced his opposition to figure as a Derby candidate. He moved up 24 points from his Sunland Derby Beyer, although in light of my last post I can’t help noticing how much the BRIS speed rating kicked the DRF’s butt (they had MTB rated at 88 for the Sunland Derby, and consistently about 10 points higher than the DRF). Pioneerof The Nile meanwhile was impressive in finishing second after the predictable wide trip. Not that I want to blame Garrett Gomez, who did the best he could with trainers’ orders to stalk but stay clear of kickback, which is a surefire way to make your Derby an 11-furlong race. Friesan Fire is excused because of his early accident.

So MTB was lucky in several ways on Saturday, but that doesn’t mean he’s a fluke. His rail move was thoroughly impressive and there’s no denying he did step up several levels from all of his previous attempts, which makes him a conspiracy theorists wet dream, but also American racing’s best story in years. I don’t expect him to be victorious at Pimlico, but I wouldn’t be shocked (again) either.

A Bogus Beyer

2009-05-03T09:45:00.000-07:00

Mine That Bird got a Beyer of 105 for his upset win in the Derby. That's four less than Big Brown, five more than Giacomo. Is it enough to win the Preakness? Let's skip this question and concentrate on a more fundamental one: Why would you assume he ran a 105?

Determining a speed figure is a tricky and partially subjective task under any circumstances, and the certainty with which the DRF is advertising and comparing them may sell their paper, but is way overblown. The fact that BSF's can frequently be questionable, misleading or plain false is something Andy Beyer has acknowledged himself, although you wouldn't think so from the way he sometimes touts his system. But assessing one for a race like yesterday’s Derby comes down to an exercise in guesswork rather than science. Anybody who has ever looked up the process of determining a Beyer (basically by relating the times of the day’s card, or parts of the card, to expected times) should realize immediately that the Derby had to be practically rated against itself, with few clues provided.

Gaps between races on Derby Day were just short of one hour, and track maintenance was done between races, with officials specifically aiming to make the track faster. The last race before the Derby was on the turf, and the only other two-turn dirt races on the card had been run more than six hours earlier under very different track conditions. Which means the earlier dirt races cannot safely be used as a comparison. As with any such procedure, speed figures get ever more questionable the smaller the sample you draw from is (a fact that sometimes renders BSF's from racedays with sudden changes in weather essentially meaningless).

The only other race to compare the Derby to was the 13th, a 7f allowance for 3yo fillies won wire-to-wire by the favorite, who ran the whole race on what seemed to be a highly favorable rail. Results behind her didn’t match well with previous forms. Previous numbers are even less helpful for the Derby itself, as freaky trips, surprise performances and added distance necessarily result in a contradictory outcome.

The assessor, and I don’t know who it was in this case, had to completely turn the process on its head. Judging from only two races (both of them 3yo races with somewhat odd results) he can’t have done anything more than an educated guess on how fast the top finishers may have run, then deduct from there. Mine That Bird’s 105 could be correct, it could just as well be off by 5 points in either direction. Under such circumstances, a speed figure is a guess, not a handicapping tool. This isn't news, but it’s nonetheless an important fact that many racing fans too often forget about.

UPDATE: Steve Crist has written a piece on his DRF blog in which he provides a brief explanation of the methodology used to come up with the 105. It's definitely worth reading, but I don't think it devalues my arguments.

Great Oaks to Little Acorns Spells Missed Opportunity for Racing

2009-05-02T11:23:00.000-07:00

"Great oaks from little acorns grow" is the phrase the Acorn Stakes have been named after, a reference to the race's status as a prep for the CCA Oaks, which were traditionally considered the real Oaks race of America. According to an article by Paul Moran, that's the road that yesterday's phenomenal Kentucky Oaks victress Rachel Alexandra will take. The race's name thus takes on a different but very symbolic meaning; Rachel Alexandra will go from Oaks glory to a race in which she can't win anything but money.

From there her connections will likely take the route Moran has outlined in an earlier article. They might start her in the Mother Goose, CCA Oaks and Alabama, then run a BC prep against older fillies, then the BC Distaff, where if everything goes right (and it so often doesn't) we may just see a duel against Zenyatta, last year's pampered filly sensation. "What is to be gained, actually, by running her against males?", Moran asks. How about public interest, in and outside the shrinking pond of racing enthusiasts?

Racing insiders and fans frequently bemoan the fact that the mainstream media only focuses on the negative stories that racing creates, but this case shows one aspect that they continue to ignore: racing doesn't produce many positive stories, even when it could.

Realistically, Rachel Alexandra will not always have such tremendous form, such a favorable trip or such favorable conditions, but under any conditions she is superior enough to all other fillies on the East Coast to discourage any meaningful opposition. Unless something goes wrong (a possibility that always exists) one of the greatest fillies in decades will cruise home in the Acorn, then beat virtually no opposition in the Mother Goose, CCA, Alabama and her BC prep.

Do you think any major newspaper will care, or that any TV station would spend hours of Saturday afternoon broadcasting on races about as engaging as "John Kerry Comedy Hour" when they have dozens of other sporting events with more appeal to choose from? You know why that Seabiscuit v War Admiral match race captured the nation? It's because people wondered who would actually win! I doubt we would have seen a movie about it had Seabiscuit run some mid-level claimer into the ground that afternoon at Pimlico. The lure of great sporting events is the lure of a great challenge, not the repeated thrashing of your overmatched opposition, no matter how huge a feat it may be in its own right.

Face it, if Rachel Alexandra wins the schedule outlined above by an average of eight lenghts, the mainstream media won't care. That is unless she gets injured somewhere along the way, in which case she might be a negative story. In both cases, racing loses. Is it really so much asked that a filly that has proven vastly superior to her crop at least tries the Belmont instead of the Acorn and Mother Goose?

"We still don’t know how good she is", trainer Hal Wiggins says. One thing is for certain: they won't find out in the Acorn.

See You in Baltimore, Rachel!

2009-05-02T01:30:00.000-07:00

The morning after Rachel Alexandra pulled off what might be the most impressive Kentucky Oaks win in history, the racing world is glowing in appraisal, with Railbird going so far as to compare the feat to the great Regret's of 1915.

Such comparison, however, misses the big difference. Regret won the Derby, Rachel Alexandra took off after a textbook trip to stun an Oaks crop we already knew she was superior to, although few had expected her to be that overwhelming. Others have pointed out that it would likely be unfair to criticize her connections for not running her in the Derby, but they won't have any excuse from here on. If wherever her career takes her next is anything but a Triple Crown race, the filly might be peerless among her sex, but her connections will have denied her a chance to show how great she really is. This filly can win against any opponent and should be campaigned that way.

In a related story, kudos again to last year's Eclipse voters. You decided against hyped supertalent Zenyatta for HOTY, figuring she really hasn't proven herself to be a Champion, despite her connections having every chance to do so. This weekend should have silenced your critics. True Champions don't hide from an opposition several levels below their class just because the track isn't absolutely perfect for them. Sorry, but if you don't have enough confidence in your horse to overcome a slightly off track against such opposition, I'm guessing we'll see another season of statistical stardom and all-female romps out of a horse that could have the talent to become an American Zarkava and help the sport overcome some of those stupid prejudices about fillies running against colts.

My Mint Condition Derby Strategy

2009-04-30T11:04:00.000-07:00

Finding the best handicapping strategy for the Derby is easy: skip that freak show and concentrate on the dozen or so other races in which Saturday’s huge crowd, fueled by an increasing state of Julep-oversaturation, won’t fail to overbet the favorites, leaving the serious handicapper opportunity to cash in on some quality plays. Unfortunately, I'm not that serious a handicapper (as my 22-buck, 5-for-5 record today on betfair in-game tennis and snooker matches for a 2,14€-gain clearly proves). Besides, societal pressure demands at least an honest attempt at Derby handicapping from every racing blogger worth his salt, an obligation I’m now willing to fulfill:

In fact, not placing anything but a spice-up bet might be precisely what I'm doing after Baffert decided not to take the risk of Pioneerof The Nile being sensitive to some kickback, instead opting to test his colt’s sensibility for taking the countryside route both turns. My quality bet was supposed to be Desert Party, but with him getting more and more props from the public handicappers and, starting from PP 19, probably being boxed in on the outside rail by the Pioneer, I doubt there will be much quality left in this bet. One general concern about this year’s edition is the skyrocketing number of starters who lack a shot in a field that otherwise offers quite some quality, which figures to destroy any chance of a clean trip for all but the frontrunners, especially if CD shows off its usual speed-favoring self on Saturday.

With virtually every major contender determined to get a close look of the parking lot, this would usually suit up to be a Borel race. I still love reviewing that 2007 Derby, when everyone was so afraid of being boxed in at the rail that they opened up a highway for Borel's Street Sense, but I can't bring myself to embrace Mine That Bird's credentials here, even for 50-1 (why can't Borel be on Friesan Fire or DP, whyyy???).

In that scenario, Papa Clem and Friesan Fire might turn out to be the best bets. I'm not a real fan of either, but breaking from gates 6 and 7 with really nothing to their inside (early speed and otherwise), they might actually find themselves forced to take the shortcut. Until someone steps up big time, this has the makings of one of those years in which the Derby is for weeding out, leaving the Preakness to decide a real crop champion.

The Quality Road To Take

2009-04-27T07:37:00.000-07:00

In a demonstration of horsemanship that hopefully will set the tone for this Triple Crown, and serve as an example to others, trainer Jimmy Jerkens has scratched Derby favorite Quality Road from the race after setbacks to the healing process on the colt’s (second) quarter crack.

Jerkens and Quality Road’s owner-breeder Edward P Evans are to be thanked for not risking the horse’s health in a forced attempt at making the Roses. The Sport of Kings needs more Horsemen like them. It must have been an awfully hard decision to make, and is therefor appreciated all the more.

Early reactions indicate the colt’s connections will give him a short rest, but he may be back to hopefully prove his class later during this Triple Crown.

NY Handle Decreases; Reduced Quality and Dependence On VLTs A Solution, Says NYTBDF

2009-04-27T01:00:00.000-07:00

According to the DRF, New York’s Thoroughbred Breeding and Development Fund is facing “economic catastrophe”. The fund, tasked with paying incentive bonuses for the State Thoroughbred Breeding and Development Fund Corp., is unable to fulfill its payout obligations as the number of state-restricted races increases while handles, its primary source of income, keep shrinking.

According to NYTBDF executive director Martin Kinsella, the number of state-restricted races will increase from between 500 and 600 annually over the last years to 700-800 this year, a change the fund applauds and which, again according to Kinsella, far outweighs NYTBDF cutbacks.

Given a relatively level overall number of races on NY tracks, 200 more state-restricted races means that about one race less per day will be open to non-statebred (or state-registered) horses, further intensifying the already existing decline in quality of NYRA’s racing product. Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t declining quality one of the main reasons for reduced handle? For comparison, look up “Gulfstream Park, Development of annual handle at” in the Cambridge Almanac of Common Sense.

Instead, Kinsella is holding out hope for the arrival of VLTs at Aqueduct, a bright future he actually refers to as a “long-term solution”. The NYTBDF was one of the first state incentive programs subsidizing breeding regions with huge amounts of money (over 60 million dollars annually), initially intended to draw breeders and owners from other states, but now mostly subsidizing the breeding of inferior horses that would not otherwise be profitable. It was effective enough to force every other breeding region around the country to start a fund itself, resulting in a stalemate that is a major cause of American racing's current oversupply.

Kinsella, if nothing else, proves one thing: No matter how many times the world economy breaks down because of this mindset, NY executives still won’t grasp a concept that every illiterate tanner in the middle ages was able to understand: In the long term, your business can’t be healthy if your expenses are higher than your income.

The Todd Has Got Some Serious Issues

2009-04-25T02:42:00.000-07:00

...especially after news of Wait A While’s positive test for procaine were confirmed. And you gotta love the title of that DRF article, someone's got his priorities straight.

As the Green but Game blog has pointed out, the most stirring part is that Wait A While’s disqualification was issued on April 23, almost exactly half a year after the race in question, last year’s Breeders Cup F&M Turf in which WAW finished third. To be fair the violation didn’t screw horseplayers that badly, given that The Todd’s penchant for his drugs cabinet is a factor every good handicapper works into his routine anyway.

But boy will Equidaily and others have a field day with this one. If we bloggers are hurting racing by actually covering incidents even if they happen in the brief timeframe during which there is some mainstream coverage, what secret PETA activists must there be in the Hollywood Park stewards office to wait until now with such a story.

Neil Papiano, ~~paid liar~~ attorney for trainer Todd Pletcher and owner Arindel Farms will advise them to appeal the ruling. Advice, btw, is also the name of one of the The Todd’s starters in the Derby next weekend. No remorse there then, I guess.

Papiano’s main argument is that the sample was driven, not flown, to a lab at UC Davis, opening the door to all kinds of conspiracy theories for our less enlightened brethren. "You don't hand it to somebody in a car. We don't know what happened in the car”, Papiano says. Apparently he thinks that car drivers could easily alter the sample, while it’s physically impossible for anyone to do so in a helicopter. Hollywood stewards dismissed this argument as baseless. I'm not sure how it’s handled in American racing, but in every other sport tests are sealed, which makes it quite obvious if they were subsequently opened or not.

Procaine, a local anesthetic, has been tested in the blood of horses up to three weeks after its injection. Many vets will use alternative treatments for that reason, and the CHRB offers free pre-race testing for the substance. Pletcher, who has several medications violations and one two-month suspension to his record, obviously still doesn't think he should check.

Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to Be Cowboys

2009-04-25T02:17:00.000-07:00

Count the DRF’s Jay Privman in the Mullins apologist camp after this schmaltzy "Urban Cowboy" editorial.

Privman, like others before him, paints the picture of Mullins as an outsider from the rural heart of America, trying to make it against the established elites of racing’s glitzy world. He struggled, couldn’t pay his bills, fought on, was knocked down again and was right back on his feet time and time again.

A great American story, you only have to be willing to disregard the fact that there are other struggling horsemen, people who wouldn’t bend their ethics, who refuse to cheat and who might ultimately fall by the wayside because f**king frauds such as Mullins cheat them out of their money. Doesn’t sound that heartwarming any more, does it?

"I don't care, as long as my clients are not bothered by it," Mullins said. "As long as they have faith in me, and they stick by me, that's all I really care about."

HANA Predictions 09-04-25

2009-04-25T01:00:00.000-07:00

Shifting this week’s HANA race, today’s sixth at Hawthorne, from Turf Paradise was about the best thing that could happen to me.

Not that I don't like TuP (although it is embarrassing for a track with this name to feature the world’s worst "turf" course, which, judging from the amount of dust, doesn't resemble anything close to grass), but Hawthorne is a track that meets HANA's pro-horseplayer spirit. Livestreams, a nice race preview show and free replays make this the best track for overseas bettors outside of CA, Lexington and Oceanport, NJ.

This marks the first time I have race replays (crucial to my handicapping routine) available for a HANA race, so it's not entirely a sympathy bet. The race is wide open and of very good quality for this level, which promises some real action in the exotics.

Notes on today’s runners:

#1 Lose None – managed to find trouble in almost every start and could well encounter some adversity here; don’t think she’s worth it at 4/1, but has every chance if given a clean trip.

#2 Miss Fontana – first start this season and will need improvement on her speed, but at 10/1 is worth some consideration; 31% ROI stable off layoff.

#3 Tessies Tilbury – fresh horse and looks perfectly primed for this, but seems to have profitted from near-perfect trips in both starts and might be looking at a speed battle here.

#4 B N Graced N Glory – impressive back-to-back wins and a 96 Beyer last time out, but both performances on the slop and hasn’t shown anything similar under different conditions in 9 other starts; I have reservations about that Beyer, too. Finished well beaten coming off her previous two outstanding performances in only attempt at stakes level (Jan17, TP, 6f).

#5 Fashionable Lady – shown promise, but would have to step up in class again; will likely have to go wide this time and may lack speed .

#6 Cart’s Lisa – gamely three times in a row battling a moderate lead from perfect gate position; will find the scenario tougher this time and at 5/1 is a very good throwout.

#7 Bow Tie Pasta – two very good forms in sprints and two lackluster ones in two-bend races; has always run much better in faster races and this one figures to be very fast.

#9 Cumulonimble – improved last time setting the pace but doesn’t have the early speed to overcome her outside post.

#10 Happy Henrietta – starts into her sophomore campaign and returns to a sprint; outside gate shouldn’t be that much of a problem but 9/2 just isn’t a reasonable prize.

#8, #11 – others seem more likely.

Summary:
Wouldn’t pick a specific one, but with several good throwouts, spreading some in the exacta or trifecta pools is the way to go.

Best Bets:
Small stacks can single out #2 for a quality Win bet if available from 8/1 upwards. The best bet is probably a weighted exacta. I'll wait for defections, race preview and post parade to decide how to weight my wager exactly, but my A-list includes numbers #1, 2 and 7 with 3, 4 and 10 worth consideration.

April Racing Returns to Epsom

2009-04-22T03:37:00.000-07:00

Today’s Blue Riband Trial at Epsom is unlikely to present the future Derby winner (not least because some of the major contenders for Britain’s classic aren’t seriously tested before gracing the Epsom turf in June), but it’s nevertheless nice to see this traditional race and raceday return after a one-year hiatus.

2007 winner Raincoats didn’t look too bad finishing second in the Dante Stakes (England’s most meaningful Derby trial), but couldn’t make an impression when subsequently running in the Prix du Jockey-Club (French Derby). 2006 winner Before You Go finished in the bottom half of the Derby, as did 2003 winner Franklin Gardens. The race has stopped being a true Derby Trial a while ago, a major reason for this being the minimal number of starters. The last five runnings attracted a total of 20 entrants, the most crowded edition being in 2005, with five horses.

In light of this, the field of seven assembled for today’s race is actually good news, especially since there are a few promising ones among them. Most intriguing is Hamdan-Al-Maktoum-owned Mustaqer, who was a good runner up when making his debut in a Listed race last August but looked very green in his two attempts after that, even though he won one of them. He’s a horse that needed maturing and should return much improved for his 3yo campaign. Today’s 10-furlong distance will help, too. He’s 7-2 with the bookies, and definitely worth choosing over Debussy, whose status as a favorite is based on a 9-lenght romp in a Maiden race over Lingfield’s polytrack.

Also carded are two historic feature handicaps, the 15K (pounds, of course) Class 3 Great Metropolitan over the full lenght of Epsom's weird Derby course and the 50K Class 2 City & Suburban over 10 furlongs. To emphasize exactly how historic, suffice it to say that these are the namesakes for Belmont’s Metropolitan and Suburban Handicaps.

Btw, isn’t it interesting that the centuries-old Great Metropolitan doesn’t carry Heritage Handicap status, but the oddschecker.com Stakes (a Kempton polytrack handicap first run last October) does?

No Broken Fixes, Please!

2009-04-18T02:02:00.000-07:00

Despite the fact that Dunkirk has virtually secured his spot in the Derby field due to a number of health- and performance-related defections, concepts for a new Kentucky Derby qualification system are still pitched. The Osterman proposal, which the article linked above pimps, is a particularly ripe and representative example of the "Win-and-You're-In, if-the-race-has-the-highest-grade-it's-enough-to-show, though" - systems flying all around us this time of year.

For the uninitiated, the "playoff" system proposed by Today's Racing Digest writer Tim Osterman basically relies on a list of races (see below) in which a set amount of Derby spots is awarded (26 overall, Osterman hopes for repeat qualifiers and a handful of defections).

The 12 races Osterman listed that he feels should be used to determine the 2009 Kentucky Derby field:

1. March 7. Gotham Stakes (Grade III). The winner is in.
2. March 14. Louisiana Derby (Grade II). First and second are in.
3. March 14. San Felipe Stakes (Grade II). First and second are in.
4. March 14. Tampa Bay Derby (Grade III). The winner is in.
5. March 21. Lane’s End Stakes (Grade II). First and second are in.
6. March 28. Florida Derby (Grade I). First three are in.
7. April 4. Wood Memorial (Grade I). First three are in.
8. April 4. Illinois Derby (Grade II). First and second are in.
9. April 4. Santa Anita Derby (Grade I). First three are in.
10. April 11. Blue Grass Stakes (Grade I). First three are in.
11. April 11. Arkansas Derby (Grade II). First and second are in.
12. April 18. Lexington Stakes (Grade II). First and second are in.

Like all such proposals, a closer look reveals that support for them is motivated by the desire to solve a specific perceived flaw of the current system (in this case, I guess, the possibility of Dunkirk missing out) but it isn’t thought through in the least. In their attempt to rectify one flaw (if you see it as a flaw, which I wouldn’t), proponents of this and the many other qualification race systems are oblivious to the mountains of much worse imperfections such a system creates.

A case in point is the subjective choice of qualification races, usually founded on the fundamentally flawed system created by the American Grades Stakes Committee. In the Osterman system, two spots would go to the Lexington Stakes. Last year’s winner of that race was Behindatthebar (who qualified, then skipped the Derby, then bruised a foot before his scheduled start in the Preakness). Not qualified under the Graded Earnings System (GES) was Samba Rooster, who finished third in the Consolation Derby at LS next time out and didn’t do anything worth noticing afterwards. The year before, Slew’s Tizzy won, qualified, skipped, won the Lone Star Consolation, finished last in the Belmont and went on to a less-than-stellar career. Starbase was the runner-up left out of the Derby. And rightfully so, considering he subsequently failed to hit the board in the Ohio Derby and Arlington Classic. None of these Osterman qualifiers (the only ones in the polytrack era) started in the Derby, so what credentials does this race have to offer two spots, other than its formal status as a Grade II? In 2006, the last time this race was run on the dirt, Showing Up won. He got into the Derby under the GES, finishing 6th. The one who didn’t, but would have under the Osterman system, was Like Now, who went on to prove he didn’t deserve a spot by finishing 7th of 9 in the Preakness before finishing last in his next four starts. Under the current system, this now 180K-to-the-victor race is a de-facto “Win-and-You’re-In”, under the Osterman system it would more often than not waste a spot on a horse that doesn’t belong anywhere near the Derby.

No spots are given to the UAE preps everybody loves to hate, despite the fact that the 9-furlongs-of-conventional-dirt UAE Derby, regularly featuring some of the finest of last year’s South American 3yo crop, will consistently produce more likely Derby candidates than the somewhat anachronistic polytrack trial discussed above. In nine runnings until 2008, the race produced five Derby-eligible winners. One, Blues And Royals in 2005, never started again, leaving Discreet Cat in 2006, Essence of Dubai in 2002 (9th in the Derby, winner of the SuperDerby among other solid but not overwhelming results), Express Tour in 2001 (8th, Jerome winner and 3rd in the Woodward) and first-ever edition winner China Visit (6th, world-class miler). Not the worst race to slap a “Win-and-You’re-In”-tag on if you ask me.

While choice of races is questionable, the real damage is done elsewhere. Most troubling about the proposal is that it shifts the likelihood for a promising contender being skipped, but actually multiplies it. Dunkirk apologists never fail to point to the fact that the horse’s career started late due to health issues. Isn’t it worthy of support, they ask, that the trainer didn’t rush the horse?

In the Osterman system, a much worse case can happen. Given that all qualification races are between early March and mid-April, what happens if a horse has a stellar juvenile career, goes on to impressively win the Southwest and the Rebel, or the San Rafael and the Sham, or the Holy Bull and the Fountain of Youth, but suffers a minor injury or infection at the beginning of March, sidelining him for a few weeks? Or if such a horse starts in the middle of that timeframe (which includes the Florida Derby) and, hampered by a horrible trip or fundamental infraction, finishes fourth in a major prep? Wouldn’t such a horse be more worthy of a spot in the Derby than, say, the runner-up of the Illinois Derby; an illustrious group that over the last five years included the unforgettables Golden Spike, Reporting For Duty (who eventually became a Derby winner, at Zia Park), Mister Triester, Monarch Lane and, last but unfortunately not least, Song of the Sword (the only one of this bunch to actually qualify for the Derby under the GES, finishing 11th; then 9th of 10 in the Preakness).

Perspective - It’s not the Absence of Thinking

2009-04-15T17:19:00.000-07:00

I didn’t plan on pointing this out, but a number of recent articles calling for events (i.e. the Mullins incident) to be "put in perspective" (the one by Equidaily, to which I responded here, being the culprit) make it painfully obvious a clarification is needed.

The notion of "putting something in perspective" is routinely abused in our society as an indirect shut-up argument. It's a rhetorical device political campaigns have come to love because it allows them to defend an utter lie and even take the high road by painting their opposition as hatemongers for calling the lie a lie.

The fact remains that "putting things into perspective" doesn't imply that any point-of-view is equally valid. What it does mean is that commentators should evaluate any argument before drawing conclusions. In the case of the Mullins incident this means that commentators should seriously consider Mullins' response that he wasn't aware of detention barn rules, and that as a human he can make mistakes. I have. Among the other points I considered were that his career spans well over 20 years; that he has regularly fielded stakes contenders in and outside of California for a large portion of that time; that he has a long list of prior offenses, that a lot of them are excusable, but some aren't; the extent to which professional trainers can be required to know the rules; the extent to which it's believable they don't; and how believable a veteran trainer is in claiming he wasn't aware that different states have different rules on raceday medication (although in this case it turned out the rules were pretty much in place in his home state, too). I observed how a lot was made of the substance being "all-natural" (which is true of opium and cocaine, too) and "above-the-counter" (as are numerous steroids), all digressing from the actual issue at hand: that the use of the substance administered was illegal.

If the facts make it clear that Mullins' defense has the merit of a marathon runner claiming he didn’t know that taking a scooter was illegal, then it is "in perspective" to call it preposterous. Treating an obvious lie as a valid argument isn’t.

Response to Equidaily (All of Them)

2009-04-15T17:03:00.000-07:00

News of Equidaily’s critique of several of my posts, an article on my own blog as well as a comment on another blogger's post, arrived me right when I was readying myself to go to bed, so please excuse me if this response seems a bit rushed. That's because it actually is.

First, if you choose to directly attack one of my posts on your website, I would consider it a question of basic decency to notify me. It doesn't really bode well for your argument that I have to find out about it from a post about a post discussing your post.

The source for my claim that AirPower is illegal in California is this Ray Paulick article, which makes it clear that absolutely anything except for water is illegal on raceday in Mullins’ home state. That’s clear enough, I guess. You’re right that it hasn't been “proven for certain” that Mullins didn't administer the substance in plain sight, but doubts have been serious enough as to be cited by NYRA in explaining why the investigation was still open.
I do admit fault for interpreting “won’t test” as “non-detectable”. You have the facts on your side, and my response that the context of this statement clearly implies the substance gives the horse an edge over his or her competiton without outright violating regulations shouldn't take away from the fact that, writing this sentence for an ad-hoc response on another blogger’s site, I was guilty of sloppy research. Sorry for that.

In case you really didn't understand (I mention it because you spend several paragraphs on the argument): I make a point of AirPower being “performance-enhancing” because it undermines the premise of Mullins’ defense. If his horse is the only one in the field gaining advantage from a performance-enhancing drug administered at a time when trainers are forbidden to do so there clearly is no merit in arguing that the incident was “harmless”.

For a more general thought about the premise of your article, and those of others, see the next post.

HANA Pool Predictions

2009-04-14T14:18:00.000-07:00

Tonight’s HANA pool (the Exacta in race 3 at Mountaineer) perfectly accommodates all of my betting weaknesses. It’s a bottom-feeder claimer at a bottom-feeder racetrack, I'm unfamiliar with most of the horsemen and all of the horses (plus I suck at those pinball PP’s). It’s a dirt dash, while what little expertise I have is mostly on two and three-turn races, preferably on the turf. Worst of all, in the interest of the greater good I’ll have to rest my longstanding policy of boycotting MTR tracks. I’m perfectly willing to do so though, HANA simply is an admirable effort that not only every serious horseplayer but everyone with a passion for racing should want to be a successful one. In the spirit of these thoughts, let me share my very uneducated guess on tonight’s exacta.

The favorite, #3 Enter The Lion, may have a reasonable chance to win but at his ML of 5/2 just isn't worth it even in an exacta. He steadily dropped in class from Alw25k since last August. Returning to a sprint after three sub-par mile performances looks like a very good decision, but the horse's last efforts are meager and have gone downhill as steep as the class he’s trying. It might be a questionable approach to these kinds of races, but I like to see a hint of form somewhere. My first choice for the winner would be #7 Kris’s Honor, a highly consistent sprinter who appears to be in great shape. The horse has shown promise in his first two attempts at this level and should at least hit the exacta this time. My second choice would be #8 Hey Reemer, who looks to be in the right spot here and should take kindly to switching back from Turfway's polytrack to Mountaineer's dirt, where his better forms come from. As an ExactaBox, those two look worth the cost.

Too Little, Too Lacking

2009-04-10T03:35:00.000-07:00

Yesterday, on what the NTRA’s president and CEO Alex Waldrop dubbed "An Important Day for Racing" , Churchill Downs became the first racetrack accredited to the Safety and Integrity Alliance standard.

We're confident that our public, regulators, horsemen and others will embrace those who take the extra steps that are needed to ensure the highest level of safety and integrity of horse racing. Over time, those tracks and horsemen who unite in support of the Alliance and its Code of Standards will lead this industry in the right direction and in doing so, will secure horseracing's future for generations to come. (Alex Waldrop)

Waldrop remains vague on the merits of being an accredited track, also unclear is why he believes that SIA tracks will automatically lead the industry. Are bettors gonna stop betting other tracks? Is there any reason for horsemen to avoid non-accredited tracks?

What always strikes me about press releases concerning the SIA is that the contents of its centerpiece, the "Code of Standards" aren’t mentioned, in fact you have to search a little to find it on the NTRA website (it's the second result from the top). The reason becomes obvious for those who actually read it. Practically all of the standards are either already regulated by law in almost all states or, like post-mortem vet examinations of horses that broke down during a race, incredibly basic. In the critical "Medications and Testing" part, the NTRA, in the absence of any authority granted, has to resort to a meager declaration of intent, whereby racetracks "shall advocate" the emergence of uniform regulations. In a similar manner, racetracks "shall affiliate with and provide funding for recognized placement/adoption program(s) that meet AAEP criteria". The worst that can happen to any racetrack violating those rules: having their accreditation revoked (and of course it remains to be seen how tracks trailing on the "shall" standards will be treated). How can there even be tracks left unwilling to sign this?

What’s missing is any increased punishment for cheating trainers and owners, any increased oversight for horses on any other than raceday or any progress towards the emergence of a central oversight authority.

One probably doesn’t need to look any further than the two incidents shocking the racing world this week. Neither would SIA standards have prevented the Paragallo scandal, nor would they change the outcome of the Mullins incident.

When we set out on this journey following last year's Triple Crown, we based our actions on a sense of commitment to our customers and industry stakeholders.

Wanna guess which of the two groups had more influence on the outcome of the SIA rules? The newest code of standards for American racing remains laughable when compared to what has been standard in other racing jurisdictions for years. It could be called a very first step, but it may just as well be nothing more than a pacifier.

HANA Pick 3 Predictions

2009-04-07T01:59:00.000-07:00

Don’t forget to bet the HANA Pick 3 today. And thanks to everyone involved for all the free handicapping tools provided.

My predictions can be found below. Keep in mind that I’m new to betting Tampa, which somewhat screws up my usual handicapping method, especially regarding the horsemen angles.

Race 6:
On recent form, it’s hard not to like #2 Silver Truth, even though starting for the 8th time since December (and getting claimed twice in the process) she may bounce at some point. As a safety net #4 Number Uno Lady may be a good choice. She switches to a stable with solid zeros in the wins columns, but three runner-up performances in as many starts. Doesn’t look like they send out horses without a chance and Centeno aboard again shows some confidence too. #7 Celebration Dance’s last two are promising, but the horse has bounced three times before on third after layoff.
The horse that befuddles me is #6 My Gemsa Gem, who is moving up in class from four races in which her closest was 13 lenghts behind the winner, finishing 7th. The problem is that her trainer seems to have a bit of success with horses moving up and I don’t see any reason why he should have moved her if he doesn’t feel confident.

Race 7:
Not overly confident in anyone, but #2, 3 and 11(AE) should be the creme of the field. Doubts mainly because I have no idea why Homeister sits on the second O’Connell entry, #10, instead of the more appealing #3. #10 has her second start after a long layoff, but has struggled against much weaker as a 3yo.

Race 8:
#4 Williamsburg doesn’t look like it on paper, but in Tampa you just can't ignore the ridiculously high percentages of Ness and Ziadie. If playing a bigger ticket, you should consider adding him as a safety measure. #1, 3 and 6 figure to be the class of the field, with #1 African Angel probably the least questionable choice (I wouldn’t take him for 5/2, but in a Pick 3 he might be worth it). Like #3 See I A, this might be a case of forcing a win during a bad streak, both horses move down in class despite not running catastrophic lately, and #3 might get the trip he's been waiting for.

Small Bet: 2 with 2,3,(11) with 1,3
Broadband: 2,4,6 with 2,3,10,(11) with 1,3,4,6

Mullins in the Detention barn (sounds good, but isn’t)

2009-04-06T05:47:00.000-07:00

Jeff Mullins, trainer of hot Derby prospect I Want Revenge, was caught inside the Aqueduct detention barn with a syringe on Saturday, the Thoroughbred Times reports. Mullins was forced by the stewards to scratch Gato Go Win from the Bay Shore Stakes after he tried to administer an above-the-counter drug to the horse. All other Mullins starters, including impressive Wood Memorial winner I Want Revenge, were allowed to proceed. The infraction, technically only a violation of detention barn rules, will also be subject to a stewards review during this week.

Tough, isn't it? Think about what the Hong Kong Jockey Club or JRA would do to a repeat offender caught with a syringe in a detention barn. Or, for that matter, to a trainer who blamed bettors for “crying about losing a $2 bet“ after being caught cheating. Any racing jurisdiction worth its salt would ban this trainer for at least a year from running any horses at their tracks, and formally warn off connections of all horses registered to his barn. In the US, the whole affair will barely reach slap-on-the-wrist proportions. In my opinion, it doesn't even matter if the substance was legal, what part of detention barn will Mullins pledge he is too stupid to understand?

How could any of this smell fishy to fans watching TV on Kentucky Derby Day: Here’s a trainer who within the last month was caught red-handed fiddling around with a syringe in a detention barn, trying to administer a performance-enhancing substance to his horse. This trainer saddles one of the Derby favorites, a horse owned by a shadowy “hedge-fund” operation run by a (former?) scam artist and white collar crook who once owned another horse which was the focus of a successful FBI investigation into organized crime at the races. How many fans of the sport will want revenge? How many casual viewers will just shake their heads in disbelief and sign the next PETA campaign against racing? How many true fans could really blame them?

Looks like contributor o_crunk was right commenting on the Railbird blog: IWR for Real Change!

Not On Its Way to the Grave

2009-04-04T09:51:00.000-07:00

This morning, a short note on the Handride blog got me thinking. It was a link to a Top 10 list ranking horse racing as #5 of things that will follow daily newspapers on their way to the grave. It also was one more in a long line of predictions of racing’s impending doom, a notion that even many of the sport's fans seem to have accepted as truth. But the newspaper analogy is, in my opinion, a perfect example for the difference between a doomed industry and a mismanaged but potentially viable one.

Despite the grim superficial picture racing may leave (and the frequently dire touch of my own posts), I don't believe for a minute that American horse racing is on it's way to the grave.

The illness of the newspaper industry is, sadly, incurable. The costs of producing a daily local newspaper are higher than the income generated by those willing to buy the whole product for the few features that are better than the alternate, free, online feed. Simply put, few people are willing to pay a few hundred bucks a year to have a paper on their door every morning when almost all of the content is available for free on the net. Newspapers have few opportunities to save on costs without alienating their customers.

The problems of American thoroughbred racing on the other hand are caused by mismanagement and oversupply. A lot could be done to attract new fans to the sport, but even under the current circumstances racing is hardly doomed. Unlike local newspapers, American racing is, for all practical purposes, free to decline in volume without equal negative effects on its quality, up to a certain point quality will in fact increase.

As a thought experiment, racing could easily exist with only one track running per day, which is precisely the system that works fine for Chilean and Argentinian racing. In those countries the takeout rate is even higher, meaning that racing’s health is even more dependent on its attraction as a sport/event, and the lure of handicapping as a strategy game. If nations with 17 and 40 million inhabitants can maintain a viable racing industry, there shouldn't be any problem in the U.S.

Dark Clouds Gather over Pimlico

2009-04-03T11:06:00.000-07:00

The bankruptcy of owner Magna may put it's historic Baltimore property, Pimlico Racecourse, in serious danger, the Baltimore Sun reports. Home of the Preakness (the least prestigious, but arguably the most meaningful jewel of the Triple Crown), Pimlico's and the race's future have been the subject of much debate over the last couple of weeks, but a solution has yet to be found.

In the interest of racing, let's hope that the unique sight of Pimlico's crowded infield will not become a thing of the past. The Triple Crown isn't the Triple Crown without the Preakness, and the Preakness isn't the Preakness if it's not run in the slightly rowdy but likeable, always electrifying atmosphere of it's Baltimore home.

Keenely Awaited

2009-04-03T10:07:00.000-07:00

And they’re off for the Keeneland Spring meet, otherwise known as the finest two-and-a-half weeks in American racing. For the most part, this is racing as it’s supposed to be: a beautiful track, lots of available information, races that are actually interesting from a sporting perspective plus free Video & Audio (well, video really, for whatever reason I can’t get the audio to work on the live stream).

By now, horsemen should have come to grips with Keeneland’s polytrack, and the initial heated two-camp shouting duel has calmed down to a more reasonable discussion about the surface's pros and cons. The results are more predictable too, thanks in part to alterations done on the track after the first meeting earned a lot of scorn for it’s unhandicappability (a word this blogocommentalist is pretty sure exists). Some of those results were, in my opinion, more due to the horsemen's strong perception of an anti-speed bias than to the existing bias itself. I remember first quarters of 25 flat in 7-furlong allowance races during Keeneland’s very first polytrack meet. After such races, commentators would point to another entirely unpredictable result on this weird surface, but have you ever seen a high-class 7-furlong race with such a slow first quarter (on any surface) that didn’t end in a weird dash to the line?

Salt in the Soup

Could somebody explain to me why there is a purse of 50k for a 4 1/2-furlong race for unraced 2yo’s in today's 2nd race? They shave off the purses of several of their major races because they have to save money, but they can still blow away 50k (several times) on pure gimmick races? Setting aside the question if 2yo’s should start in April in the first place, would that race have attracted a lesser field if run for half the amount? And if so, would anybody have noticed?
I guess they just want to lead buyers at their current 2YO sale to believe that Thoroughbred owners will pretty much get paid for anything.

Presidential Delusions and A Call for Congress

2009-04-01T14:10:00.000-07:00

Over his last couple of articles, NTRA president and CEO Alex Waldrop has looked like a person slipping into delusion.

It started out a with a Joe Drape article in the NY Times, itself a follow-up to an article a few days earlier by another Times writer (which was, if anything, too modest in it’s well-founded criticism), both shining light on American racing’s still-rampant drug problem. Waldrop’s response was, frankly, maniacal. Responding with a five-point memo, he tried to disprove the criticism as baseless, but the only thing obviously baseless was his own line of reasoning. In his blog response, Alex didn’t offer the usual comments-section, instead trying to incite his readers to attack a Times reporter with hatemail.

This kind of counterproductive response triggered criticism of Waldrop by turf writers, fans and horsemen. Even now, facing attacks from people he couldn’t possibly accuse of trying to destroy his effort, Waldrop missed the exit sign. Instead he did what he has done as NTRA president: staying the course and admitting no fault, finally repeating and even adding to his points in a Bloodhorse article. The title? "Unprecedented progress". The real question now becomes: Who is Alex trying to fool?
His five-argument defense would likely be hopeless, not to mention morally repugnant, if published in a mainstream press release. In an industry media outlet it is nothing short of ridiculous. What racing fan is gonna believe Waldrop’s conclusion that the sport has basically solved it’s drug problem, or that 55 racetracks signing a non-binding declaration of intent constitutes a major step forward for Thoroughbred safety? After all it’s been barely weeks since the racing secretary of one of the nation’s major racetrack operators publicly announced that an unprecedented (but not in any way trend-reversing) record of breakdowns was just an unfortunate side effect of the business.

If there was any proof needed that racing’s current institutions won’t solve the problems outlined almost a year ago by a congressional comittee, the NTRA’s president has accomplished it.

Looking into the Futures

2009-04-01T06:27:00.000-07:00

With the third and final Derby Futures pool opening tomorrow, the field is starting to shape up.

Most interestingly, Dunkirk is listed with a morning line of 8-1 (Quality Road is the favorite at 6-1) even though it’s questionable that he’ll even start. So far I haven’t heard anything about his connections resorting to desperate measures (by which I mean the Lexington or Derby Trial) and he is likely to sink too low on the Graded earnings list over the next two weekends. Not to mention that the running style he’s shown so far is ill-suited for the Derby.

Another odd choice is Theregoesjojo at 20-1, for a horse that is currently about 20k behind even being on the bubble, not to mention being beaten decisively by direct contenders in his last two starts. Am I missing something here?

The value bet may be 30-1 Desert Party, who has a lot of excuses for his runner-up performance in the UAE Derby. Like Dunkirk, he may have gotten a lot out of this defeat. Unlike Dunkirk, it didn't risk his Derby spot.

Mafaaz is listed in the morning line as 50-1, but considering how many tipsters have professed confidence in his chances those odds will probably be much lower. In my opinion, if his connections decide to start (which they likely will), they’ll do so for no other reason than his starting purse. The Kempton field he topped was good enough for what that race was, a Listed event, but as for the quality of his opposition, let me just share that my main motivation for betting him in that race was his promising fifth place in last year’s Timeform Million, a race that produced quality all the way to at least 8th place. I’m also not sold on his dirt credentials, it’s probably not very encouraging that his connections chose to run his final prep over the Polytrack. Maybe for some people it’s just wishful thinking, seeing as Mafaaz is already being built up as a posterchild for drug-free racing.

Well Armed first, the rest nowhere

2009-03-28T12:23:00.000-07:00

Talk about a horse answering doubts about his ability to handle the dirt track. The way Well Armed took the lead from the gate and just unleashed in the stretch, Eoin Harty might kick himself for wasting this horse on the closer-friendly California circuit. Still, the overall result is a little odd for a race that in the past years had been a true test of champions.
Not only did Well Armed's stunning performance come off three rather mediocre races, but the horses finishing behind him were surprising too, to say the least. Gloria De Campeao is a Nad Al Sheba veteran whose (Dubai) forms have been highly consistent throughout the years, and who had already been beaten decisively by half the field, including this season. Paris Perfect hasn't been too impressive in his native South Africa, starting above G3 level only once, finishing fifth. This winter he turned in three solid but not stellar forms from Saudi Arabia. He narrowly lost that country's biggest race to today's fourth-place finisher Muller, a former top horse in Peru, who has spent the last two years winning 2-from-9 in Saudi Arabia.
Meanwhile none of the legitimate contenders ever recovered from the pace, some probably beaten by the speed bias the track showed today. Hard to put this race into perspective and therefor hard to announce Well Armed the best horse in the world just yet, one more brilliant performance would help. And luckily, he's a gelding.

German Racing, Part III: The Ugly

2009-03-27T13:18:00.000-07:00

In my intro post ("First Things First") I mentioned that I hardly follow (or at least bet on) German racing. Readers of the first two parts of this miniseries on German racing might rightfully wonder why I wouldn’t, given that the problems I’ve pointed out aren’t necessarily worse than those found in British or American racing. The simple answer is: it’s hard and expensive to follow German racing. Internet age? Age of free information? Not when it comes to German racing. By and large, betting information for German races works precisely the way it did 50 years ago: You go to the nearest newsstand that sells the "Sport-Welt", the country’s racing (race)daily, and fork over 2 bucks 50 (Euros, of course) for a paper that can be as thin as a dozen pages, containing nothing more than today’s racecard, the results for last raceday, a news page of questionable value and sometimes an editorial piece about as hard-hitting as an investigative report on Frank Stronach, written by Frank Stronach. Meanwhile, German racing’s web presence is such that it’s still almost impossible to find as much as a pattern race schedule online.

Until last season, at least live streams were available for free for customers of the many horsebetting websites around, that is until the Direktorium thought it should charge those websites several times more money for providing the betting public with the only free means of watching the races, essentially forcing the betting sites to cancel those streams or demand a fee for watching them. The Direktorium's main motivation, I guess, was to increase the income of its own foray into the wild world of the net, where for as little as 300 euros a year (plus taxes) you have access to live streams, race replays and sketchy formcards, all of these a shadow of those that several British & Irish websites offer for free for racing on the isles. Wonder why the off-track handle for German racecourses keeps shrinking?

The only television exposure (except for the Derby and possibly the Grosser Preis von Baden) is a mixed harness/thoroughbred format every Sunday afternoon on a sports channel, which may sound pretty good unless you know that it’s a paid-advertising format sponsored and run by a betting website with so little regard for the presentation of racing as a sport (the actual grade and significance of races goes largely unnoticed) and so transparent a focus on luring in the most dim-witted of viewers, milk them for every cent and move on, that all it does for racing is diminish the public perception of the industry.

It’s not like television hasn’t tried, though. With continually healthy on-track attendances (as mentioned in the post below), there has been many a TV station trying to market the sport during the last two decades. There was Sat.1, one of the country’s major stations, which in the 90s tried to establish a “race-of-the-week”-type format on Saturday afternoons. It failed as decisively as other station’s attempts to broadcast the entire card from 2 or 3 tracks on weekend afternoons or to establish an hour-long format showing the major races from several tracks live. All of these attempts were doomed because of another unique feature of German racing: the delay.

Until very recently, by the time the eight race was scheduled, German tracks would've been glad to have the the 7^th started, delays for the last race on a card usually totaled over 30 minutes, thus making it almost impossible for any TV station to fit racing into its schedule. It’s a pain for the on-site public, too. People frequently have to wait 40 minutes or more between two races. On multi-track broadcasts, starting times that were 15 minutes apart on paper would regularly conflict in practice, so either one race couldn’t be shown or that track had to be put on hold, further increasing its delay. I once watched an hour-long format featuring the G1 Europa-Preis, the most important race that program was to broadcast all year. The race was supposed to start at 16:30, but viewers were lucky to even see the end of it, at 17:02. A major handicap scheduled for 16:45 couldn’t be shown. At the end of that year, the TV station struck racing from its lineup.

P.S. Speaking of ugly, Bremen Racecourse once managed to put down an injured horse by shooting it, in plain sight, right in front of the grandstand, on children's day. Ouch.

German Racing, Part II: The Bad

2009-03-27T12:55:00.000-07:00

Overseeing a breeding environment uniquely geared towards the production of sound turf stayers, the Direktorium (Germany’s national racing association) largely fails to use this vast potential. On the contrary, the only races that have seen their purses and status increase over the last two decades were those for juveniles and 3-year-olds, segments already entirely oversupplied in all other European racing nations. That’s even more incredible if you think about what other racing nations would give for the name recognition and marketing potential of equine stars that run at least to the age of 5.

A disturbing trend swapping over from British racing in recent years is the emergence of sales restricted races for 2 or 3-year-olds, finally promoting the destructive breeding bias towards premature performers and speed horses to the country, not to mention the damage done to the season schedule. Where horsemen once tried to win prestigious stakes races, they’re now prepping to win the next BBAG Auction Race, races that regularly offer much higher purses than a Listed or even Group III race, but mostly attract horses that would have otherwise started in the next 5k race. About 10 of those races, restricted to horses sold at the Baden-Baden auction, exist. Consider this: In Dresden, my hometown, there now is a BBAG Auktionsrennen worth 50k (just to demonstrate their disdain for racing’s traditions, they didn't even bother to individually name most of these races), while the prestigious Sachsenpreis, a 10-furlong event for older horses, has seen it’s purse decrease from 50 to 20k during the last decade and the even more historic Preis der Dreijährigen (run for sponsorship reasons as Freiberger-Premium-Preis, a Derby prep used by both Laroche and All My Dreams prior to capturing the Big race) went down from 50 to 30k. Needless to say that the two traditional highlights still offered much more quality.

Unlike in the US or UK, most of the problems of the German game aren’t motivated by greed or lack of oversight, but by the inability of the Direktorium to recognize the needs of today’s sport. An Old Boys club if there ever was one, the Direktorium’s ranks consist almost entirely of wealthy seniors who still run the sport the way they did 30 years ago, in the age before the internet, before the advent of International simulcasting and generally before they had to worry about competition.
When questioned about their achievements and strategies, the Direktorium usually presents the International success of German-bred horses as their own achievements. Since it’s full name translates to German Board of Thoroughbred Racing and Breeding, they’re technically correct, although one might feel that this breeding success can be credited more to the individual contributions of the handful of breeders who breed and mostly own Germany’s top performers. That the other part of its mission, the racing, is losing ever more ground to International competition; that they should wonder why the best older German horses hardly ever start in Germany, or why they were unable to translate generations of equine superstars into any public interest for the sport, are aspects largely lost on the Direktorium.

One could go on and on about their blurred perception, but one example might be enough: When a single German horse won two undercard races at Auteuil, France’s jumps racing mecca, the Direktorium rated the development of German jumps racing as very positive in their annual review. A little perspective: When I first attended the races in 1992, both racecourses in my state of Saxony would feature two hurdle races per raceday, by 2000 both had abandoned their hurdle course. Since 1992 the number of annual jumps races in Germany has decreased from decisively over one hundred to barely several dozen, most of them close to the French border. One might not like jumps racing, but in any case the above is hardly a success story.

The overall health of the sport is somewhat difficult to assess. While racing plays almost no role at all in the media, most tracks have solid attendance figures. Dresden, for example, averages between five and six thousand patrons without running any major events (although that is above average), major races are usually run in front of a five-figure audience. Why this doesn’t translate into any meaningful media exposure (especially given that horse racing is a staple both on television and in the newspapers in France, Britain and Ireland) is a phenomenon partially covered in Part III.

German Racing, Part I: The Good

2009-03-27T12:38:00.000-07:00

I’ve heard the best way to start off a delicate topic is by paying a compliment, which is why I’ll start a three-part miniseries on Thoroughbred racing in Germany by pointing to the proudest feature of the country’s sport: the tradition of quality breeding. For decades now, a handful of breeders have been able to consistently produce world-class racehorses without resorting to a Dubai-style checkbook strategy. Among them the names of Gestüt Fährhof, Gestüt Schlenderhan, Georg Baron von Ullmann and Gestüt Hof Ittlingen stand out. One might add names such as Röttgen, Auenquelle, Ammerland and Park Wiedingen.

There is a lot to like about the German breeding industry. And because I’d run into certain embarrassment evaluating it myself, I’ll let the Bloodhorse do the talking for me:

Few of the major racing nations are further removed from the United States in their approach to racing than Germany. Where miler speed is the name of the game here, Germany has a long tradition of breeding for the stamina to win top-level events at the European classic distance of 12 furlongs (...). Soundness, too, is prized; conformation inspections for prospective stallions are required, and horses that have raced on medications have not been permitted to enter stud in the country since 1997.

During the last two decades, German horses have included the likes of Lando (a seven-time Group I winner, including the 1995 Japan Cup), 2002 English Oaks and 1000 Guineas winner Kazzia, 2005 BC Turf winner Shirocco and 2007 IFHA Horse of the Year Manduro (although he was trained in France from the age of 4). There is however one tiny little problem to that strength, which is that German racing offers few top races actually accommodating its potential. A case in point is Silvano: The impressive 2001 winner of the Arlington Million had his previous starts in Singapore (winning the Singapore Cup), Hong Kong (winning the QE II Cup), Dubai and Singapore again. Probably the most prominent (although not best) German horse in training is 7-year-old gelding Quijano. His PPs coming into this Saturdays Dubai Sheema Classic show 3 starts at Woodbine, 3 at Dubai, 2 at Hong Kong, 1 at Milan and precisely 1 from Germany. The pattern repeats itself again and again, once a horse is both good enough to regularly compete on the highest levels and older than 3 years, German racing fans will hardly ever see it, even if most of those horses will continue being owned, trained and even ridden by German-based horsemen. Which brings us to Part II...

The Paulick Distort

2009-03-26T14:18:00.000-07:00

Pull the Pocket has an interesting article on the all too close-knit relation between racing press and industry. From computer gaming to wine, from model rail roads to fashion, the problem that the special interest media is both too personally connected with and too financially dependent on the industry it covers to really take a critical point of view is one found in every area. What really caught my eye though was not the topic itself but one of the comments.

In it, web journalist and former Bloodhorse editor-in-chief Ray Paulick, mentioned in the article as having a considerable bias towards the interests of horsemen, pleads "guilty as charged", adding that "without the horsemen, there will be no horses" and that "we need to do more for fans and horsemen...if we do that successfully, the tracks will succeed".

There is good reason for the coziness between racing journalists and horsemen. Everyone who spent decades in the sport will have become friendly with a large number of horsemen, so on a personal level it's understandable that racing columnists wouldn't want them to get hurt. Also, with the possible exception of Andrew Beyer, no racing journalist has the standing not to risk his job when confronting the industry. Since the racing media is financed almost exclusively by industry advertising, who do you think they would ultimately side with in a standoff between horsemen and a columnist. Still, there is a difference between avoiding a losing battle and actively lobbying for the horsemen’s interests, especially where it conflicts with the interests of the sport (and fans).

Mr. Paulick's claim that not siding with the horsemen would leave the sport without horses is an oversimplification to the point where it becomes an insult to the reader’s intelligence. Is he actually proposing that the sport couldn't exist with a lower number of horses and race dates than we have now? How then does he explain the success of Hong Kong’s two race tracks, each running less than 10 races a week? Or the existence of successful tracks in South American countries, all of them with a much smaller pool of horses and horsemen than in the US.

Horse racing, after all, isn't a welfare system, it’s a professional sport/entertainment industry. Does Golf succeed because it sees to it that wannabe-pros who regularly miss the cut on the Northern Arizona tour still make enough income to give them a living? It doesn't. Horsemen are professionals just like actors or baseball players, which means that either they’re good enough to pay their dues or they’ll have to search for another profession. The interest of racing jurisdictions and the racing media should be the well-being of the sport, because that’s the one thing everything else ultimately depends on. In the long run, tracks succeed only when the sport succeeds, which won’t happen as long as it ignores the most basic rules of supply and demand in order to keep every horseman's boat afloat.